5 ms·

13+ years ago the same academic modeler predicted 200 million deaths from a bird flu outbreak that killed 282 people in total.[1]. That's a pretty enormous err

13+ years ago the same academic modeler predicted 200 million deaths from a bird flu outbreak that killed 282 people in total.[1]. That's a pretty enormous error-- alarmist publicity-seeking behavior then and now, but the damage was felt more acutely now. If this modeler really wanted a competent simulation it would have been better constructed. That it was not well-constructed is another datapoint indicating how egregious the error was on the part of the goverment in failing to properly vet it. [1].https://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/frederick-forsyth/1270245/coronavirus-neil-ferguson-sars-bird-flu-deaths https://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/frederick-forsy...

zimpenfish 6y ago
That's an amazingly disingenuous comment. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamess... He said that if it was the same as the 1918 flu, you could probably scale it up to 200M people. He didn't predict 200M, he speculated that it could be that bad. And he wasn't alone - "A global influenza pandemic is imminent and will kill up to 150 million people" said "David Nabarro, one of the most senior public health experts at the World Health Organisation" "A Department of Health contingency plan states anywhere that there could be between 21,500 and 709,000 deaths in Britain." An unnamed WHO spokeswoman said "best case scenario" would be 7.4 million deaths globally. https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7787-flu-pandemic-lethal-yet-preventable/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7787-flu-pandemic-let... "And yet, the models show, if targeted action is taken within a critical three-week window, an outbreak could be limited to fewer than 100 individuals within two months." Oh, he also showed how to react and keep the number of casualties to a minimum. Don't believe what you read in dirt rags.
- goldforever 6y ago
  That Ferguson kept getting his predictions/forecasts wrong time after time - good riddance.

zimpenfish 6y ago

That's an amazingly disingenuous comment. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamess... He said that if it was the same as the 1918 flu, you could probably scale it up to 200M people. He didn't predict 200M, he speculated that it could be that bad. And he wasn't alone - "A global influenza pandemic is imminent and will kill up to 150 million people" said "David Nabarro, one of the most senior public health experts at the World Health Organisation" "A Department of Health contingency plan states anywhere that there could be between 21,500 and 709,000 deaths in Britain." An unnamed WHO spokeswoman said "best case scenario" would be 7.4 million deaths globally. https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7787-flu-pandemic-lethal-yet-preventable/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7787-flu-pandemic-let... "And yet, the models show, if targeted action is taken within a critical three-week window, an outbreak could be limited to fewer than 100 individuals within two months." Oh, he also showed how to react and keep the number of casualties to a minimum. Don't believe what you read in dirt rags.

goldforever 6y ago
That Ferguson kept getting his predictions/forecasts wrong time after time - good riddance.