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Is this thing actually being used for policy decisions? Given the complexity, poor language/framework choice (should have used either Rust or Tensorflow), bad

by devit 6y ago

Is this thing actually being used for policy decisions? Given the complexity, poor language/framework choice (should have used either Rust or Tensorflow), bad code design, and unclear determination of the parameters (especially the fact they don't seem to be estimated from real data with Bayesian inference, or if they are they didn't release that), as well as the ludicrous CPU and RAM usage making it impossible for most people to run it and thus check it, it doesn't seem like it has any chance of actually being a good model. If this is the state of the art for the most important statistical modelling project in the world, we are in the dark ages.

bencollier49 6y ago
It's 13+ years old. There was no Rust or Tensorflow when it was originally produced.
- drtillberg 6y ago
  13+ years ago the same academic modeler predicted 200 million deaths from a bird flu outbreak that killed 282 people in total.[1]. That's a pretty enormous error-- alarmist publicity-seeking behavior then and now, but the damage was felt more acutely now. If this modeler really wanted a competent simulation it would have been better constructed. That it was not well-constructed is another datapoint indicating how egregious the error was on the part of the goverment in failing to properly vet it. [1].https://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/frederick-forsyth/1270245/coronavirus-neil-ferguson-sars-bird-flu-deaths https://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/frederick-forsy...
  - zimpenfish 6y ago
    That's an amazingly disingenuous comment. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamess... He said that if it was the same as the 1918 flu, you could probably scale it up to 200M people. He didn't predict 200M, he speculated that it could be that bad. And he wasn't alone - "A global influenza pandemic is imminent and will kill up to 150 million people" said "David Nabarro, one of the most senior public health experts at the World Health Organisation" "A Department of Health contingency plan states anywhere that there could be between 21,500 and 709,000 deaths in Britain." An unnamed WHO spokeswoman said "best case scenario" would be 7.4 million deaths globally. https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7787-flu-pandemic-lethal-yet-preventable/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7787-flu-pandemic-let... "And yet, the models show, if targeted action is taken within a critical three-week window, an outbreak could be limited to fewer than 100 individuals within two months." Oh, he also showed how to react and keep the number of casualties to a minimum. Don't believe what you read in dirt rags.
    - goldforever 6y ago
      That Ferguson kept getting his predictions/forecasts wrong time after time - good riddance.
Johnjonjoan 6y ago
Metawards is also being used. https://github.com/ldanon/MetaWards https://github.com/ldanon/MetaWards
- curl_e 6y ago
  There is also a more user friendly version of the MetaWards at https://metawards.org/ https://metawards.org/ ( GH repo: https://github.com/chryswoods/MetaWards https://github.com/chryswoods/MetaWards ) implemented in Python which identically matches the results of the C implementation, verified by tests.

by devit 6y ago

bencollier49 6y ago

It's 13+ years old. There was no Rust or Tensorflow when it was originally produced.

drtillberg 6y ago
13+ years ago the same academic modeler predicted 200 million deaths from a bird flu outbreak that killed 282 people in total.[1]. That's a pretty enormous error-- alarmist publicity-seeking behavior then and now, but the damage was felt more acutely now. If this modeler really wanted a competent simulation it would have been better constructed. That it was not well-constructed is another datapoint indicating how egregious the error was on the part of the goverment in failing to properly vet it. [1].https://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/frederick-forsyth/1270245/coronavirus-neil-ferguson-sars-bird-flu-deaths https://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/frederick-forsy...
- zimpenfish 6y ago
  That's an amazingly disingenuous comment. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamess... He said that if it was the same as the 1918 flu, you could probably scale it up to 200M people. He didn't predict 200M, he speculated that it could be that bad. And he wasn't alone - "A global influenza pandemic is imminent and will kill up to 150 million people" said "David Nabarro, one of the most senior public health experts at the World Health Organisation" "A Department of Health contingency plan states anywhere that there could be between 21,500 and 709,000 deaths in Britain." An unnamed WHO spokeswoman said "best case scenario" would be 7.4 million deaths globally. https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7787-flu-pandemic-lethal-yet-preventable/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7787-flu-pandemic-let... "And yet, the models show, if targeted action is taken within a critical three-week window, an outbreak could be limited to fewer than 100 individuals within two months." Oh, he also showed how to react and keep the number of casualties to a minimum. Don't believe what you read in dirt rags.
  - goldforever 6y ago
    That Ferguson kept getting his predictions/forecasts wrong time after time - good riddance.

Johnjonjoan 6y ago

Metawards is also being used. https://github.com/ldanon/MetaWards https://github.com/ldanon/MetaWards

curl_e 6y ago
There is also a more user friendly version of the MetaWards at https://metawards.org/ https://metawards.org/ ( GH repo: https://github.com/chryswoods/MetaWards https://github.com/chryswoods/MetaWards ) implemented in Python which identically matches the results of the C implementation, verified by tests.