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> Actually my understanding is that that is That is not my understanding, but I'm willing to be convinced otherwise, given a statement of hers to that effect.
by gridlockd 6y ago
> Actually my understanding is that that is
That is not my understanding, but I'm willing to be convinced otherwise, given a statement of hers to that effect.
> Guangdong and Wuhan are similarly distant from Yunnan
Yes, but Guangdong and Yunnan are bat country, unlike Wuhan.
Could it have spread through other wildlife? Yes. I'm not ruling that out at all, I never have. I'm pointing out that somehow the dominant narrative is the one that appears relatively unlikely even in the assessment of a leading expert.
> I made the claim that the transmission vector for Cov-1 and cov-2 were similar. That they both started in Yunnan and travelled east hundreds of miles via some method, likely a combination of bat migration/movement, civet/pangolin migration/movement, and human movement of captured animals.
As a reminder, this is your original claim:
"Bat caves in Yunnan are full of potentially dangerous coronaviruses, but the farmers living close to the caves are already immune to the strains they're in frequent contact with, so the only way for an outbreak to get big is by long-distance transportation carrying the virus somewhere else."
> If you read the updated article, you'd find that she no longer believes the virus could have leaked from her lab
It may well be true that it didn't come from her lab, the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is several miles away from the seafood market.
However, the Wuhan CDC is right next to the seafood market and they performed experiments with hundreds of live bats there[1]. A likely vector could've been improperly disposed lab garbage.
[1] https://img-prod.tgcom24.mediaset.it/images/2020/02/16/114720192-5eb8307f-017c-4075-a697-348628da0204.pdf https://img-prod.tgcom24.mediaset.it/images/2020/02/16/11472...
- joshuamorton 6y agoI'm not sure who you're quoting, but it's not me. As for the claim that the Wuhan cdc is tight next to the seafood market, I direct you to this comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23096524 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23096524 which thoroughly and completely debunks those claims.
- gridlockd 6y ago> I'm not sure who you're quoting, but it's not me. Indeed, I oversaw that it was "yorwba" who put that comment into "our" thread, not you. My apologies. > As for the claim that the Wuhan cdc is tight next to the seafood market, I direct you to this comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23096524 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23096524 which thoroughly and completely debunks those claims. That's not a "thorough and complete" debunking, that's an erroneous assessment regarding the functions and location(s) of the Wuhan CDC, based on a cursory glance at websites. A little bit more research would've revealed that the Wuhan CDC indeed was performing experiments on bats and that it has several facilities (including one near the seafood market). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovnUyTRMERI&feature=youtu.be&t=86 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovnUyTRMERI&feature=youtu.be... https://map.baidu.com/poi/%E6%AD%A6%E6%B1%89%E5%B8%82%E7%96%BE%E7%97%85%E9%A2%84%E9%98%B2%E6%8E%A7%E5%88%B6%E4%B8%AD%E5%BF%83/@12720508.588819638,3561711.948140599,17.39z?uid=5325f5ab08c15717fea7781e&info_merge=1&isBizPoi=false&ugc_type=3&ugc_ver=1&device_ratio=2&compat=1&querytype=detailConInfo&da_src=shareurl https://map.baidu.com/poi/%E6%AD%A6%E6%B1%89%E5%B8%82%E7%96%...
- joshuamorton 6y agoNeither of those links appears to say anything meaningful.
- gridlockd 6y agoThey prove that, contrary to what that comment you linked says: 1. There is a WHCDC facility at the location claimed, close to the seafood market 2. There was research on bats at the WHCDC In other words, the person who "thoroughly debunked" the paper just didn't have a clue where to look. I'm getting tired discussing this. The "lab escape hypothesis" is not a debunked conspiracy theory. It's a plausible scenario. Pathogens - including SARS-CoV-1 - have escaped from labs several times. The wildlife market transmission is a plausible scenario as well, it just seems "out of place" in Wuhan. That doesn't mean it's wrong, of course.