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The study in question is the Imperial College study projecting the spread of COVID-19. It used (apparently an earlier version of) this code to generate the dat

by jMyles 7y ago

The study in question is the Imperial College study projecting the spread of COVID-19. It used (apparently an earlier version of) this code to generate the data for its analysis. This study was, of course, the basis for lockdowns around the world.

lidHanteyk 7y ago
You sound like an anti-scientific snowflake, FWIW. I don't see how your position actually advances the scientific discourse; you didn't open up any PRs to improve the codebase, and without any other options, it sounds like you just want the scientists to go away and stop trying to end the pandemic.
- d1str0 7y ago
  No he doesn’t. Asking for verification on a study is incredibly scientific.
  - lidHanteyk 7y ago
    Please, go on; what kind of verification do you want? How would you like to see this codebase improved in order to bring about that verification?
  - eejjjj82 7y ago
    No... doing your own analysis to verify the study is incredibly scientific. And the authors have provided you their code. So find a bug in the implementation which can invalidate one of their claims. Lack of tests, is not a bug.
est 7y ago
> This study was, of course, the basis for lockdowns around the world. Its model for China predictions seems to be quite fitting.
toyg 7y ago
> This study was, of course, the basis for lockdowns around the world. [citation needed] Afaik this was a lone study that might have been relevant only to the UK debate (and very late at that). Italy had already been in full lockdown for weeks before it was published, quite a few other European countries had gone in shutdown or closed borders, and obviously Asian countries had already taken countermeasures for months. Being so cavalier with the truth is, of course, why intelligent people don't take seriously a lot of anti-science attitudes.
- ubercow13 7y ago
  The FT claim it was: https://www.ft.com/content/16764a22-69ca-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75 https://www.ft.com/content/16764a22-69ca-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcc...
  - toyg 7y ago
    "The UK and the US". It's in the title. As I said, "around the world" they were already taking countermeasures.
  - fceccon 7y ago
    The timelime doesn't match tho. The article is dated 19/03 and mentions a study released the previous week (so 12/03 or late). The italian lockdown started on the 22/02 [0] for a few towns, and a couple of weeks later was extended to the entire peninsula. [0] https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/25/towns-italy-lockdown-coronavirus-12298246/ https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/25/towns-italy-lockdown-coronavi...
    - ubercow13 7y ago
      Indeed, I forgot how late the UK/US policy changed. The claim that this study affected policy around the world doesn't seem to hold up.
- pnako 7y ago
  According to Le Monde (~ French NY Times), it's this research that prompted the French government to urgently implement this "lock down" solution. It was criticized by some French scientists in the government's own expert group. But I don't really blame Ferguson. If President Macron listens to him, or Alex Jones, or any other crank or random guy with an opinion and a model, instead of his own experts, he is the one to blame. I think the culture of the "safety principle" and excessive caution is also to blame. https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/03/15/coronavirus-les-simulations-alarmantes-des-epidemiologistes-pour-la-france_6033149_3244.html https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/03/15/coronaviru...
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
tastroder 7y ago
I've honestly lost track of all the simulation papers over the last few weeks, is there anything in particular in this one that's not reflected by any one of those? I don't think I've seen a single one that didn't come to suggesting a scale that calls for some lockdown requirements.
lostmyoldone 7y ago
At least in Europe it wasn't a major part of decisions. When it was published, it mostly corroborated what people here were already seeing, that urgent care facilities got - or were going to get - overwhelmed in a few weeks if contact tracing failed to contain close to all cases. There is also a "control" group of sorts in us Swedes, as the Swedish health authority choose to act differently, initially. Their recommendation as of now is essentially equivalent to quarantine, except for non-adults. It's important to understand that it is really to instigate anything like a curfew in Sweden, at least unless we get attacked military by another country. The laws as they stand don't really allow that. So the government is also somewhat limited in what they can do. The situation here is that urgent care has been overwhelmed for about a month, and a lot more people have died or been gravely ill than during even really bad flu seasons. We're also probably far from done yet, as it's much easier to get people to stay indoors when it's cold and rainy outside, and as its been getting warmer more people have been disrespecting the recommendations.

by jMyles 7y ago

lidHanteyk 7y ago

You sound like an anti-scientific snowflake, FWIW. I don't see how your position actually advances the scientific discourse; you didn't open up any PRs to improve the codebase, and without any other options, it sounds like you just want the scientists to go away and stop trying to end the pandemic.

d1str0 7y ago
No he doesn’t. Asking for verification on a study is incredibly scientific.
- lidHanteyk 7y ago
  Please, go on; what kind of verification do you want? How would you like to see this codebase improved in order to bring about that verification?
- eejjjj82 7y ago
  No... doing your own analysis to verify the study is incredibly scientific. And the authors have provided you their code. So find a bug in the implementation which can invalidate one of their claims. Lack of tests, is not a bug.

est 7y ago

> This study was, of course, the basis for lockdowns around the world. Its model for China predictions seems to be quite fitting.

toyg 7y ago

> This study was, of course, the basis for lockdowns around the world. [citation needed] Afaik this was a lone study that might have been relevant only to the UK debate (and very late at that). Italy had already been in full lockdown for weeks before it was published, quite a few other European countries had gone in shutdown or closed borders, and obviously Asian countries had already taken countermeasures for months. Being so cavalier with the truth is, of course, why intelligent people don't take seriously a lot of anti-science attitudes.

ubercow13 7y ago
The FT claim it was: https://www.ft.com/content/16764a22-69ca-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75 https://www.ft.com/content/16764a22-69ca-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcc...
- toyg 7y ago
  "The UK and the US". It's in the title. As I said, "around the world" they were already taking countermeasures.
- fceccon 7y ago
  The timelime doesn't match tho. The article is dated 19/03 and mentions a study released the previous week (so 12/03 or late). The italian lockdown started on the 22/02 [0] for a few towns, and a couple of weeks later was extended to the entire peninsula. [0] https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/25/towns-italy-lockdown-coronavirus-12298246/ https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/25/towns-italy-lockdown-coronavi...
  - ubercow13 7y ago
    Indeed, I forgot how late the UK/US policy changed. The claim that this study affected policy around the world doesn't seem to hold up.
pnako 7y ago
According to Le Monde (~ French NY Times), it's this research that prompted the French government to urgently implement this "lock down" solution. It was criticized by some French scientists in the government's own expert group. But I don't really blame Ferguson. If President Macron listens to him, or Alex Jones, or any other crank or random guy with an opinion and a model, instead of his own experts, he is the one to blame. I think the culture of the "safety principle" and excessive caution is also to blame. https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/03/15/coronavirus-les-simulations-alarmantes-des-epidemiologistes-pour-la-france_6033149_3244.html https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/03/15/coronaviru...

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

tastroder 7y ago

I've honestly lost track of all the simulation papers over the last few weeks, is there anything in particular in this one that's not reflected by any one of those? I don't think I've seen a single one that didn't come to suggesting a scale that calls for some lockdown requirements.

lostmyoldone 7y ago

At least in Europe it wasn't a major part of decisions. When it was published, it mostly corroborated what people here were already seeing, that urgent care facilities got - or were going to get - overwhelmed in a few weeks if contact tracing failed to contain close to all cases. There is also a "control" group of sorts in us Swedes, as the Swedish health authority choose to act differently, initially. Their recommendation as of now is essentially equivalent to quarantine, except for non-adults. It's important to understand that it is really to instigate anything like a curfew in Sweden, at least unless we get attacked military by another country. The laws as they stand don't really allow that. So the government is also somewhat limited in what they can do. The situation here is that urgent care has been overwhelmed for about a month, and a lot more people have died or been gravely ill than during even really bad flu seasons. We're also probably far from done yet, as it's much easier to get people to stay indoors when it's cold and rainy outside, and as its been getting warmer more people have been disrespecting the recommendations.