3 ms·

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... http://eur

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... http://euromomo.eu http://euromomo.eu There's nothing for the USA as a whole, it will be compiled from states' records and estimates eventually. But it already seems obvious to me that the excess deaths in the next few years from secondary effects (avoiding hospitals, drug overdoses, suicides, stress/panic attacks, less traffic/police on roads, etc) will far outnumber the deaths where COVID-19 took away more than one year of life. I'm probably still in the minority with that belief.

jaggederest 6y ago
I don't envy those who have to make these decisions. I think the public health impact from prolonged isolation could actually outweigh the direct effects of the virus. Just mental health alone is going to be rocked to the foundations.
- Fjolsvith 6y ago
  And, people are going to be very angry when they learn that you can get the coronavirus when locked up at home. [1] They will wonder why they had to lose their job from the quarantine. 1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/05/06/majority-of-new-coronavirus-cases-in-new-york-are-from-people-staying-at-home-not-traveling-or-working/#74a356ad1655 https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/05/06/majori...
henrikschroder 6y ago
The CDC has all-cause excess mortality tracking and graphs here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm As far as I can tell the numbers are statistically computed estimates, based on real reported deaths, so it's not actual counted deaths, and there's still reporting lag skewing the last couple of weeks.
- guscost 6y ago
  Thanks, yes it looks like recent weeks are weighted for under-reporting (how to figure out the weighting with so much chaos is another question), and they're estimating that a little over 60% of excess deaths in the past few weeks were caused by COVID-19.
deleted 6y ago
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jaggederest 6y ago

I don't envy those who have to make these decisions. I think the public health impact from prolonged isolation could actually outweigh the direct effects of the virus. Just mental health alone is going to be rocked to the foundations.

Fjolsvith 6y ago
And, people are going to be very angry when they learn that you can get the coronavirus when locked up at home. [1] They will wonder why they had to lose their job from the quarantine. 1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/05/06/majority-of-new-coronavirus-cases-in-new-york-are-from-people-staying-at-home-not-traveling-or-working/#74a356ad1655 https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/05/06/majori...

henrikschroder 6y ago

The CDC has all-cause excess mortality tracking and graphs here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm As far as I can tell the numbers are statistically computed estimates, based on real reported deaths, so it's not actual counted deaths, and there's still reporting lag skewing the last couple of weeks.

guscost 6y ago
Thanks, yes it looks like recent weeks are weighted for under-reporting (how to figure out the weighting with so much chaos is another question), and they're estimating that a little over 60% of excess deaths in the past few weeks were caused by COVID-19.

deleted 6y ago

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