3 ms·

Herd immunity hasn't been achieved anywhere and with around a half percent infection fatality rate that doesn't seem like something you would like to get to.

busymom0 6y ago
It’s lower than half percent now. Around 0.2-0.3% and probably going to go even more lower.
- saiya-jin 6y ago
  any source? I know that many people who have it don't go to hospital unless severe (have few colleagues like that), plus tons of +-asymptomatic folks, but these are just words, no hard data
  - busymom0 6y ago
    Source from April 25: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/2-7-million-in-new-york-may-have-been-infected-study-finds-nj-poised-to-top-100k-cases/2388182/ https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/2-7-million-in-new-yor... > With 271,000-plus confirmed cases, the mortality rate would be as high as 6 percent. With 2.7 million cases, it would be around 0.5 percent -- much lower, though still much higher than the seasonal flu. 0.5% in New York as of April 25. Since New York is the worst case so far in US, overall, the fatality rate drops to 0.2-0.3%. You say: > I know that many people who have it don't go to hospital unless severe (have few colleagues like that), plus tons of +-asymptomatic folks That's exactly why the true mortality rate is much LOWER. Mortality rate's denominator is supposed to be the true number of infected. So asymptomatic and others with anti-bodies means the true denominator is much higher and thus the true mortality rate is much lower.
- vkou 6y ago
  It's much higher than than. New York had an ~1% IFR.
  - busymom0 6y ago
    Source from April 25: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/2-7-million-in-new-york-may-have-been-infected-study-finds-nj-poised-to-top-100k-cases/2388182/ https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/2-7-million-in-new-yor... > With 271,000-plus confirmed cases, the mortality rate would be as high as 6 percent. With 2.7 million cases, it would be around 0.5 percent -- much lower, though still much higher than the seasonal flu. 0.5% in New York as of April 25. Since New York is the worst case so far in US, overall, the fatality rate drops to 0.2-0.3%. You say: > I know that many people who have it don't go to hospital unless severe (have few colleagues like that), plus tons of +-asymptomatic folks That's exactly why the true mortality rate is much LOWER. Mortality rate's denominator is supposed to be the true number of infected. So asymptomatic and others with anti-bodies means the true denominator is much higher and thus the true mortality rate is much lower.
sergiotapia 6y ago
It's much much lower than that now. The numbers we've been fed to justify this quarantine are not real.
- macspoofing 6y ago
  Just stop. We've seen what happens when this virus is let loose. We've seen it collapse the Italian healthcare system. It almost came close to collapsing the healthcare system in NYC. So it isn't just a big conspiracy to quarantine everyone. The initial numbers were higher, but that's expected given the lack of data. The new numbers are better but still flawed. We won't know the true infection rate and the death toll for a while still, but the models are constantly refined.

busymom0 6y ago

It’s lower than half percent now. Around 0.2-0.3% and probably going to go even more lower.

saiya-jin 6y ago
any source? I know that many people who have it don't go to hospital unless severe (have few colleagues like that), plus tons of +-asymptomatic folks, but these are just words, no hard data
- busymom0 6y ago
  Source from April 25: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/2-7-million-in-new-york-may-have-been-infected-study-finds-nj-poised-to-top-100k-cases/2388182/ https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/2-7-million-in-new-yor... > With 271,000-plus confirmed cases, the mortality rate would be as high as 6 percent. With 2.7 million cases, it would be around 0.5 percent -- much lower, though still much higher than the seasonal flu. 0.5% in New York as of April 25. Since New York is the worst case so far in US, overall, the fatality rate drops to 0.2-0.3%. You say: > I know that many people who have it don't go to hospital unless severe (have few colleagues like that), plus tons of +-asymptomatic folks That's exactly why the true mortality rate is much LOWER. Mortality rate's denominator is supposed to be the true number of infected. So asymptomatic and others with anti-bodies means the true denominator is much higher and thus the true mortality rate is much lower.
vkou 6y ago
It's much higher than than. New York had an ~1% IFR.
- busymom0 6y ago
  Source from April 25: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/2-7-million-in-new-york-may-have-been-infected-study-finds-nj-poised-to-top-100k-cases/2388182/ https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/2-7-million-in-new-yor... > With 271,000-plus confirmed cases, the mortality rate would be as high as 6 percent. With 2.7 million cases, it would be around 0.5 percent -- much lower, though still much higher than the seasonal flu. 0.5% in New York as of April 25. Since New York is the worst case so far in US, overall, the fatality rate drops to 0.2-0.3%. You say: > I know that many people who have it don't go to hospital unless severe (have few colleagues like that), plus tons of +-asymptomatic folks That's exactly why the true mortality rate is much LOWER. Mortality rate's denominator is supposed to be the true number of infected. So asymptomatic and others with anti-bodies means the true denominator is much higher and thus the true mortality rate is much lower.

sergiotapia 6y ago

It's much much lower than that now. The numbers we've been fed to justify this quarantine are not real.

macspoofing 6y ago
Just stop. We've seen what happens when this virus is let loose. We've seen it collapse the Italian healthcare system. It almost came close to collapsing the healthcare system in NYC. So it isn't just a big conspiracy to quarantine everyone. The initial numbers were higher, but that's expected given the lack of data. The new numbers are better but still flawed. We won't know the true infection rate and the death toll for a while still, but the models are constantly refined.