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> It seems incredibly naive to me for anyone to believe that a virus just happened to naturally jump from animals to humans at a wet market in Wuhan, when that
by DiogenesKynikos 7y ago
> It seems incredibly naive to me for anyone to believe that a virus just happened to naturally jump from animals to humans at a wet market in Wuhan, when that event could have happened in thousands of other wet markets.
I think it's naive to believe that a spillover event is more probable in a high-security research lab than out in the real world. Do not underestimate the sheer amount of contact between humans and infected animals. Coronaviruses are not rare - for the animals that host them, they are just another common cold. Farmers, butchers, villagers who live near bat populations, people who frequent wet markets, and all sorts of other people are constantly coming into contact with animals that are sick with coronaviruses.
There are estimates that a few million people in Southeast Asia are infected with bat coronaviruses each year. In other words, spillover events are occurring thousands of times each day. We're just lucky that the vast majority of them do not lead to global pandemics, because they are not well adapted to humans and do not transmit efficiently from person to person, or because the epidemic never reaches a major population center. There are probably even pandemics that go completely unnoticed, because the symptoms caused by the viruses are no worse than the common cold.
So compare what's happening every day to thousands of people in Southeast Asia to a few people working under extreme safety precautions in a high-security lab.
- Gibbon1 7y ago> So compare what's happening every day to thousands of people in Southeast Asia to a few people working under extreme safety precautions in a high-security lab. If you go off what other virologists have said, that this virus looks like a random wild virus. Then what are the chances the virus escaped from a bsl-4 lab while a researcher was cataloging it. Bs any of the millions as you say random farmers, butchers, etc randomly getting infected. Yeah odds favor the latter. Also the Wuhan seafood market looks exactly like the kind of enclosed place with lots of people we now know to avoid during the pandemic. So the only notable thing there is it's was a big enough cluster to be noticed. Looking from common origins is something every public health official does day in day out.