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Are you equally skeptical that we have a test that reliably detects Covid? And I suppose all of the 2+ dozen studies done are completely inaccurate as well? Li

Are you equally skeptical that we have a test that reliably detects Covid? And I suppose all of the 2+ dozen studies done are completely inaccurate as well? List below includes the revised study from Ioannidis. Your criticisms are from a preprint. May 4: 370 workers test positive in Missouri. None had symptoms. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/triumph-foods-outbreak-missouri/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/triumph-foods-outbreak-mis... May 1: revised Santa Clara study: 2.8% of the population had antibodies. Study came out on April 14. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v... May 1: Dutch Royal Institute of Health 13884 healthcare workers test positive in the Netherlands. 9 have died. 0.06% CFR among healthcare workers 3% hospitalization rate 6/9 underlying conditions 9/9 above 45 https://www.rivm.nl/documenten/covid-19-en-zorgmedewerkers-30-april-2020 https://www.rivm.nl/documenten/covid-19-en-zorgmedewerkers-3... May 1: 15.5% seroprevalence in German Community. 0.36% IFR https://www.ukbonn.de/C12582D3002FD21D/vwLookupDownloads/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf/%24FILE/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf https://www.ukbonn.de/C12582D3002FD21D/vwLookupDownloads/Str... April 30: partial results give 61% of population infected in Bergamo https://bergamo.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_aprile_30/coronavirus-bergamo-primi-risultati-test-61percento-positivi-85e8e36c-8a6b-11ea-94d3-9879860c12b6_preview.shtml https://bergamo.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_aprile_30/cor... April 27: 36% infected in homeless shelters https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765378?guestAccessKey=a5d28066-8f72-4633-a291-90b472754093 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765378?gu... April 27: Governor of NY claims their study indicate 24.7% on the island. Up to 2.7m people in nyc had covid : https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/cuomo-outlines-reopening-roadmap-for-new-york-as-daily-deaths-hit-lowest-level-in-weeks/2390949/ https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/cuomo-outlines-reopeni... April 26: 96% symptom free out of 3300 positive https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-u-s-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prison... April 26: 17,000 healthcare workers tested positive, 60 dead in Italy https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_16-aprile-2020.pdf#page=13 https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bolletti... April 26: Seroprevalence in Kobe Japan 300x to 800x higher then expected https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079822v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079822v... April 26: 25% of seroprevalence in Iran, 0.08 to 0.12% IFR. 518k to 777k infected https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079244v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079244v... April 24: between 123k and 221k cases in Miami-Dade https://www.miamidade.gov/releases/2020-04-24-sample-testing-results.asp https://www.miamidade.gov/releases/2020-04-24-sample-testing... April 24: Denmark 1.7% seroprevalence 0.082% death rate among 17-70 real-time screening / antibodies test https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075291v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075291v... April 23: governor of ny tweets that 13.9% of the state could have virus https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1253352837255438338 https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1253352837255438338 April 22: Sweden health official claims 20% of Stockholm could be infected, weeks away from herd immunity https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-st... April 22: LA County could have between 223k and 442k cases. Mortality between 0.1% and 0.3% http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328 http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/media... April 22: 5.5% of residents could be positive in Geneva county https://www.hug-ge.ch/medias/communique-presse/seroprevalence-covid-19-premiere-estimation https://www.hug-ge.ch/medias/communique-presse/seroprevalenc... April 22: 20% of Stockholm infected, heard immunity weeks away https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-st... April 20: Up to 10% of the people in Wuhan developed antibodies. 1.2M https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.25904 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.25904 April 19: 49% of the population of Orties developed antibodies. About 50x official stats. https://www.stol.it/artikel/chronik/flaechendeckende-tests-in-st-ulrich https://www.stol.it/artikel/chronik/flaechendeckende-tests-i... April 17: 32% of the residents tested for antibodies in Chelsea Massasuchets could have had Covid https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/ https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third... April 16: 3% of blood donors have antibodies in Netherlands https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/16/3-dutch-blood-donors-covid-19-antibodies https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/16/3-dutch-blood-donors-covid-19-... April 15: 50% homeless test positive in a Boston Shelter https://www.boston25news.com/news/cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/ https://www.boston25news.com/news/cdc-reviewing-stunning-uni... April 15: Coronavirus probably dozens of times more common then official stats https://thl.fi/en/web/thlfi-en/-/number-of-people-with-coronavirus-infections-may-be-dozens-of-times-higher-than-the-number-of-confirmed-cases https://thl.fi/en/web/thlfi-en/-/number-of-people-with-coron...

joshuamorton 6y ago
Right, and my entire point is that most of the antibody tests appear to be inaccurate with false positive rates that are egregiously high. Quoting a bunch of antibody tests with egregiously high false positive rates doesn't address that at all. You'd need to show that the antibody tests are accurate, and independent tests have shown that they aren't.[0] The conclusion there is that the serological tests have false-posdtive rates of 15-20% in the worst cases, and 2-3% in the best cases, on blood samples from before covid-19 existed. So using those tests, on a population where not a single person has covid-19, you'd see results showing that 2-20% of the population was previously infected. These independent numbers often differ from the official reported numbers from the test makers. And the seroprevalence studies you cute either use those numbers, or worse just ignore the possibility of false positives entirely. Again, if 20% of New Yorkers had covid, (much more than) 20% of people tested using reliable tests would show that. > Are you equally skeptical that we have a test that reliably detects Covid? No, because we have evidence that the seroprevalence tests are god awful. We don't have that for viral presence tests, unless you believe the god awful seroprevalence tests. To humor you, I'll run through some of the links you posted: May 4: 370 workers test positive in Missouri. - Reliable (PCR, not serological) tests, people may be presymptomatic, since this just happened. May 1: revised Santa Clara study - From the paper There is one important caveat to this formula: it only holds as long as (one minus) the specificity of the test is higher than the sample prevalence. If it is lower, all the observed positives in the sample could be due to false-positive test results, and we cannot exclude zero prevalence as a possibility. May 1: Dutch Royal Institute - Unreliable sero test May 1: 15.5% seroprevalence in German Community - Unreliable sero test April 30: partial results give 61% of population infected - Unreliable sero test (likely compounded by bad stats, but I can't read french) April 27: 36% infected in homeless shelters - Reliable test, but unclear if the people were asymptomatic or presymptomatic. Needs followup. April 27: Governor of NY claims their study indicate 24.7% - Based on sero test April 26: 96% symptom free out of 3300 positive - No info on which to base an opinion April 26: 17,000 healthcare workers tested positive - Unclear, can't read french April 26: Seroprevalence in Kobe Japan 300x to 800x - Seroprevalence says it all April 26: 25% of seroprevalence in Iran - "Seroprevalence" April 24: between 123k and 221k cases in Miami-Dade - Blood (sero) test April 24: Denmark 1.7% seroprevalence - Sero test April 23: governor of ny tweets that 13.9% of the state could have virus - Based on sero testing April 22: Sweden health official claims 20% of Stockholm could be infected - Based on sero testing April 22: LA County could have between 223k and 442k cases - Based on sero testing April 22: 20% of Stockholm infected - Based on sero April 20: Up to 10% of the people in Wuhan developed antibodies - Antibodies (sero) April 19: 49% of the population of Orties developed antibodies - Sero April 17: 32% of the residents tested for antibodies - Sero April 16: 3% of blood donors have antibodies - Sero April 15: 50% homeless test positive in a Boston Shelter - You cited this already April 15: Coronavirus probably dozens of times - Sero So, removing duplicates and serological tests, we're left with 3 things: May 4: 370 workers test positive in Missouri. - Reliable (PCR, not serological) tests, people may be presymptomatic, since this just happened. April 27: 36% infected in homeless shelters - Reliable test, but unclear if the people were asymptomatic or presymptomatic. Needs followup. And one more, that you didn't mention: https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/05/417356/initial-results-mission-district-covid-19-testing-announced https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/05/417356/initial-results-mis... This third study is by far the most reliable, and it's conclusions were that 50% experienced no symptoms, and 1.4% of a working class population (the 2.1% included non-residents, which is less controlled) was infected, which would trend higher than average (Ninety percent of the people who were PCR positive had no capability of working from home during shelter in place.) The other two studies just show that people in close proximity can all be infected quickly, and so be presymptomatic at the same time. [0]: https://covidtestingproject.org/index.html https://covidtestingproject.org/index.html

joshuamorton 6y ago

Right, and my entire point is that most of the antibody tests appear to be inaccurate with false positive rates that are egregiously high. Quoting a bunch of antibody tests with egregiously high false positive rates doesn't address that at all. You'd need to show that the antibody tests are accurate, and independent tests have shown that they aren't.[0] The conclusion there is that the serological tests have false-posdtive rates of 15-20% in the worst cases, and 2-3% in the best cases, on blood samples from before covid-19 existed. So using those tests, on a population where not a single person has covid-19, you'd see results showing that 2-20% of the population was previously infected. These independent numbers often differ from the official reported numbers from the test makers. And the seroprevalence studies you cute either use those numbers, or worse just ignore the possibility of false positives entirely. Again, if 20% of New Yorkers had covid, (much more than) 20% of people tested using reliable tests would show that. > Are you equally skeptical that we have a test that reliably detects Covid? No, because we have evidence that the seroprevalence tests are god awful. We don't have that for viral presence tests, unless you believe the god awful seroprevalence tests. To humor you, I'll run through some of the links you posted: May 4: 370 workers test positive in Missouri. - Reliable (PCR, not serological) tests, people may be presymptomatic, since this just happened. May 1: revised Santa Clara study - From the paper There is one important caveat to this formula: it only holds as long as (one minus) the specificity of the test is higher than the sample prevalence. If it is lower, all the observed positives in the sample could be due to false-positive test results, and we cannot exclude zero prevalence as a possibility. May 1: Dutch Royal Institute - Unreliable sero test May 1: 15.5% seroprevalence in German Community - Unreliable sero test April 30: partial results give 61% of population infected - Unreliable sero test (likely compounded by bad stats, but I can't read french) April 27: 36% infected in homeless shelters - Reliable test, but unclear if the people were asymptomatic or presymptomatic. Needs followup. April 27: Governor of NY claims their study indicate 24.7% - Based on sero test April 26: 96% symptom free out of 3300 positive - No info on which to base an opinion April 26: 17,000 healthcare workers tested positive - Unclear, can't read french April 26: Seroprevalence in Kobe Japan 300x to 800x - Seroprevalence says it all April 26: 25% of seroprevalence in Iran - "Seroprevalence" April 24: between 123k and 221k cases in Miami-Dade - Blood (sero) test April 24: Denmark 1.7% seroprevalence - Sero test April 23: governor of ny tweets that 13.9% of the state could have virus - Based on sero testing April 22: Sweden health official claims 20% of Stockholm could be infected - Based on sero testing April 22: LA County could have between 223k and 442k cases - Based on sero testing April 22: 20% of Stockholm infected - Based on sero April 20: Up to 10% of the people in Wuhan developed antibodies - Antibodies (sero) April 19: 49% of the population of Orties developed antibodies - Sero April 17: 32% of the residents tested for antibodies - Sero April 16: 3% of blood donors have antibodies - Sero April 15: 50% homeless test positive in a Boston Shelter - You cited this already April 15: Coronavirus probably dozens of times - Sero So, removing duplicates and serological tests, we're left with 3 things: May 4: 370 workers test positive in Missouri. - Reliable (PCR, not serological) tests, people may be presymptomatic, since this just happened. April 27: 36% infected in homeless shelters - Reliable test, but unclear if the people were asymptomatic or presymptomatic. Needs followup. And one more, that you didn't mention: https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/05/417356/initial-results-mission-district-covid-19-testing-announced https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/05/417356/initial-results-mis... This third study is by far the most reliable, and it's conclusions were that 50% experienced no symptoms, and 1.4% of a working class population (the 2.1% included non-residents, which is less controlled) was infected, which would trend higher than average (Ninety percent of the people who were PCR positive had no capability of working from home during shelter in place.) The other two studies just show that people in close proximity can all be infected quickly, and so be presymptomatic at the same time. [0]: https://covidtestingproject.org/index.html https://covidtestingproject.org/index.html