> Tell me, please, how does this support the idea that mass spread without extreme protective measures (as was the case in January or February) can result in no

> Tell me, please, how does this support the idea that mass spread without extreme protective measures (as was the case in January or February) can result in no excess death? I'm not saying it can result in "no excess death", I'm saying if there had been mass spread back then, even on the order of hundreds of thousands of cases, it could've gone unnoticed, because the excess death would've been within the seasonal variance. If there are really 10x as many actual cases as reported - which is what antibody studies suggest - then the virus has either been spreading much faster than we assumed, or has been spreading for longer than we assumed. The fact that somebody who died in France in December appears to have been infected with COVID-19 strongly suggests that there has been community spread far earlier than we assumed.