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I have a family member working in a major metropolitan hospital. They are not overwhelmed. By all accounts, our state is at or past the peak, and we are not e

I have a family member working in a major metropolitan hospital. They are not overwhelmed. By all accounts, our state is at or past the peak, and we are not even close to being overwhelmed. Many doctors and nurses are actually out of work as "elective" procedures are on hold. Measuring the number of cases as the testing is being massively bumped out does not measure overload - actual death rate does.

Retric 7y ago
Specific hospitals being overwhelmed or not is a different question. If we want to know how stressed the healthcare system is look at hospitalization rates, other proxy’s are pointless when you have hard data. Deaths don’t track 1:1 with hospitalizations because some people die much sooner. The most at risk tend to die within 2 weeks, while others are still extremely sick and can die 6+ weeks after infection. Those people have lower rates of death per day, but may still require ventilators. Thus, a steady rate of new infections can look like a very slow decrease in deaths even as the heath system is getting more stressed.
- tomohawk 7y ago
  All I can say is that the data does not support a conclusion other than that the death rate has flattened for some time. The number of tests per 1000 people is increasing each day in the US. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-daily-covid-19-tests-per-thousand?time=2020-03-08..&country=USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-daily-covid-19-... This means that it is increasingly likely to uncover more cases, independent of how many new infections there actually are. Where is the data on overloaded hospitals?
travisporter 7y ago
the 7 day moving average means there is a lag in that curve for prediction. Incubation time of upto two weeks may not show itself for upto three weeks.
- tomohawk 7y ago
  If you go to the site, they answer these concerns. The reporting is also delayed, and so can be very bursty. Here is the raw data, which shows a flatening. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&time=2020-03-08..&country=USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-deaths-per-mill...
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]

Retric 7y ago

Specific hospitals being overwhelmed or not is a different question. If we want to know how stressed the healthcare system is look at hospitalization rates, other proxy’s are pointless when you have hard data. Deaths don’t track 1:1 with hospitalizations because some people die much sooner. The most at risk tend to die within 2 weeks, while others are still extremely sick and can die 6+ weeks after infection. Those people have lower rates of death per day, but may still require ventilators. Thus, a steady rate of new infections can look like a very slow decrease in deaths even as the heath system is getting more stressed.

tomohawk 7y ago
All I can say is that the data does not support a conclusion other than that the death rate has flattened for some time. The number of tests per 1000 people is increasing each day in the US. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-daily-covid-19-tests-per-thousand?time=2020-03-08..&country=USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-daily-covid-19-... This means that it is increasingly likely to uncover more cases, independent of how many new infections there actually are. Where is the data on overloaded hospitals?

travisporter 7y ago

the 7 day moving average means there is a lag in that curve for prediction. Incubation time of upto two weeks may not show itself for upto three weeks.

tomohawk 7y ago
If you go to the site, they answer these concerns. The reporting is also delayed, and so can be very bursty. Here is the raw data, which shows a flatening. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&time=2020-03-08..&country=USA https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/new-covid-deaths-per-mill...
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]