5 ms·

How many jobs do robots really replace?

28 points by jonbaer 7y ago

sbuccini 7y ago
I'd recommend looking into Acemoglu's full body of work[0], the papers are quite readable and investigate some hypothesis that others had only spoke about in generalities, including the impacts of demographic shifts, automation, regulatory impact, and more. [0] https://economics.mit.edu/faculty/acemoglu/paper https://economics.mit.edu/faculty/acemoglu/paper
yes-you-can 7y ago
A little OT but somehow _maybe_related (a phonecall, you -hear-(crossed out) listen to one:) '...and whatshisface?' '...mailed a notification of sickness...' '...a hate-speech comment ...at the internet...' '...had worried him that much...' '...a 14-day downtime...Uh-huh' without any more word... (-;
JoeAltmaier 7y ago
Is automation happening in the USA? Yes, at breakneck speed the last 15 years. My niece is an automation engineer (as is her husband). She's had all the work she could handle since graduating 8 years ago. Been all over the country but mostly in lonely cornfields far from big cities, changing some factory over to total automation at the cost of every job in whatever small town is nearby. During lockdown, it's been totally hectic. Everybody wants to go full speed ahead on automation. You want a guaranteed job and interesting work? Do the automation engineer thing. Some physics, some materials science, some computers, some pneumatics and electronics, a lot of controls, a little bit of everything. Her husband is not in batch processing; he's in continuous processing. Read that: oil refineries. He's been totally overbooked shutting down lines that haven't shut down since they were built. Sometime soon he'll go back and start them all up again. But it takes 2-4 weeks to start just one. Stage by stage, bringing up pressure and temperature and monitoring for problems, thru 100 of stages. Nothing is going to come back quickly after this is over.
- HeyLaughingBoy 7y ago
  I spent the beginning of the COVID-19 quarantine wondering what I could do now that I couldn't do before. Instead of focusing on the negative, what opportunities could come out of this? Then I realized it was already happening, but not obvious. The big redesign of an automation product for a customer at the day job? Going full bore when we expected that COVID would slow it down. They're breathing down our neck asking when it'll be done. My side project work that helps with machine tool retrofit? Same thing: my customer says by the time I'm done with the latest design change and have prototypes ready, they'll have sold more systems already. I'm counting my blessings, but this is not what I expected :-)
at-fates-hands 7y ago
This feels like the second technological revolution. I remember my Dad in the 1970's working with some of the largest companies to update all their old analog stuff with the new shiny computer databases. The stories he told me for years just blew my mind. I figure the 70-90's were the first wave, this is easily going to be the second wave. It will have all the disruptions and human job loss, frantic movement of people to other industries and a ton of other misery just as the first one did. Full disclosure: I'm also in automation. I'm currently doing RPA (Robotic Process Automation) development and our team is swamped with requests from teams who are trying to cut the fat out of their departments and reduce head count to try and save the company billions over the next five years.
partingshots 7y ago
> The study does suggest, however, that robots have a direct influence on income inequality. The manufacturing jobs they replace come from parts of the workforce without many other good employment options; as a result, there is a direct connection between automation in robot-using industries and sagging incomes among blue-collar workers. Jobs will never fully disappear, but at some point, the vast majority of the human race will be classed out of work. Net wealth will continue to increase but will be increasingly concentrated into a smaller group of people (i.e. the people who own the automation and the people with PhDs who make the automation). I believe at a certain point, some kind of universal basic income will become necessary to support the people that will fall outside this small group.
- jmeister 7y ago
  Alternatively, this out-of-work group becomes artisans, creating hand-crafted work with a human touch (think Etsy) that commands a premium over the factory-produced stuff. Tyler Cowen has some good articles on this.
  - paulryanrogers 7y ago
    Doubtful there is enough demand for such hand crafted work. Else we wouldn't have starving artists
    - jmeister 7y ago
      “Artisanal” is very broad here: the opposite of anything mass-manufactured, impersonal, “soulless”. Artisanal beer, cheese are already part of big-city hipster culture. It can apply to clothes, food, restored/modded/customized vehicles, custom furniture(vs. ikea), etc.
- valuearb 7y ago
  Automation eliminated 90% of farm jobs over the last 200 years, and the American middle class became immensely wealthier directly because of this. Automation creates better jobs and it’s benefits lifts up everyone over time.

28 points by jonbaer 7y ago

I'd recommend looking into Acemoglu's full body of work[0], the papers are quite readable and investigate some hypothesis that others had only spoke about in generalities, including the impacts of demographic shifts, automation, regulatory impact, and more. [0] https://economics.mit.edu/faculty/acemoglu/paper https://economics.mit.edu/faculty/acemoglu/paper

yes-you-can 7y ago

A little OT but somehow _maybe_related (a phonecall, you -hear-(crossed out) listen to one:) '...and whatshisface?' '...mailed a notification of sickness...' '...a hate-speech comment ...at the internet...' '...had worried him that much...' '...a 14-day downtime...Uh-huh' without any more word... (-;

JoeAltmaier 7y ago

Is automation happening in the USA? Yes, at breakneck speed the last 15 years. My niece is an automation engineer (as is her husband). She's had all the work she could handle since graduating 8 years ago. Been all over the country but mostly in lonely cornfields far from big cities, changing some factory over to total automation at the cost of every job in whatever small town is nearby. During lockdown, it's been totally hectic. Everybody wants to go full speed ahead on automation. You want a guaranteed job and interesting work? Do the automation engineer thing. Some physics, some materials science, some computers, some pneumatics and electronics, a lot of controls, a little bit of everything. Her husband is not in batch processing; he's in continuous processing. Read that: oil refineries. He's been totally overbooked shutting down lines that haven't shut down since they were built. Sometime soon he'll go back and start them all up again. But it takes 2-4 weeks to start just one. Stage by stage, bringing up pressure and temperature and monitoring for problems, thru 100 of stages. Nothing is going to come back quickly after this is over.

HeyLaughingBoy 7y ago
I spent the beginning of the COVID-19 quarantine wondering what I could do now that I couldn't do before. Instead of focusing on the negative, what opportunities could come out of this? Then I realized it was already happening, but not obvious. The big redesign of an automation product for a customer at the day job? Going full bore when we expected that COVID would slow it down. They're breathing down our neck asking when it'll be done. My side project work that helps with machine tool retrofit? Same thing: my customer says by the time I'm done with the latest design change and have prototypes ready, they'll have sold more systems already. I'm counting my blessings, but this is not what I expected :-)

at-fates-hands 7y ago

This feels like the second technological revolution. I remember my Dad in the 1970's working with some of the largest companies to update all their old analog stuff with the new shiny computer databases. The stories he told me for years just blew my mind. I figure the 70-90's were the first wave, this is easily going to be the second wave. It will have all the disruptions and human job loss, frantic movement of people to other industries and a ton of other misery just as the first one did. Full disclosure: I'm also in automation. I'm currently doing RPA (Robotic Process Automation) development and our team is swamped with requests from teams who are trying to cut the fat out of their departments and reduce head count to try and save the company billions over the next five years.

partingshots 7y ago

> The study does suggest, however, that robots have a direct influence on income inequality. The manufacturing jobs they replace come from parts of the workforce without many other good employment options; as a result, there is a direct connection between automation in robot-using industries and sagging incomes among blue-collar workers. Jobs will never fully disappear, but at some point, the vast majority of the human race will be classed out of work. Net wealth will continue to increase but will be increasingly concentrated into a smaller group of people (i.e. the people who own the automation and the people with PhDs who make the automation). I believe at a certain point, some kind of universal basic income will become necessary to support the people that will fall outside this small group.

jmeister 7y ago
Alternatively, this out-of-work group becomes artisans, creating hand-crafted work with a human touch (think Etsy) that commands a premium over the factory-produced stuff. Tyler Cowen has some good articles on this.
- paulryanrogers 7y ago
  Doubtful there is enough demand for such hand crafted work. Else we wouldn't have starving artists
  - jmeister 7y ago
    “Artisanal” is very broad here: the opposite of anything mass-manufactured, impersonal, “soulless”. Artisanal beer, cheese are already part of big-city hipster culture. It can apply to clothes, food, restored/modded/customized vehicles, custom furniture(vs. ikea), etc.
valuearb 7y ago
Automation eliminated 90% of farm jobs over the last 200 years, and the American middle class became immensely wealthier directly because of this. Automation creates better jobs and it’s benefits lifts up everyone over time.