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All indications are that we are going to experience a not-so-great depression. Not a recession, an honest-to-goodness depression. 2020 will be down YoY in terms
by sulam 6y ago
All indications are that we are going to experience a not-so-great depression. Not a recession, an honest-to-goodness depression. 2020 will be down YoY in terms economic output probably across the world, and it wouldn't surprise me if that's not only true for Q2-Q4, but if it also lingers into Q1. My guess is that we will feel like things are growing again this time next year.
Some economists are hoping for a better outcome than this of course, but you can connect the dots and see what people are planning for, as you've done here. Airbnb is not alone in planning for depression, and the travel industry will be worse than most.
- ImaCake 6y agoAustralia's gov't owned ABC news company has started spreading articles filled with either optimism or "why a depression wont be so bad". The people who know these kind of things can see the way the wind is blowing.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- misun78 6y agoThe markets seem to vehemently disagree with that entire narrative.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- asdff 6y agoAre we looking at the same markets? We are still below where we were, and a pullback after an initial legdown is expected. Look at the chart from 2008. Leg down, pull back, some time at the top of the roller coaster to look around, then the real big second leg down that just pummels the market.
- kortilla 6y agoNasdaq is nearly flat for the year. 2008 was systemic failure of financial system. Unless you’re suggesting something much worse will be unearthed by this shock, this is looking like 1987.
- sulam 6y agoWhich markets? If you are referring to the S&P 500, hope is outweighing fear right now, I'll give you that. If you mean crude oil markets, well, they reflect the narrative. If you mean bond markets, yields are declining. Also, it would be remiss of me not to point out that the markets != the real economy. They are correlated, but that correlation is not perfect. 20M newly unemployed Americans would disagree with you that things are largely unchanged from 3 months ago.
- taurath 6y agoThe world can always get worse. There's a lot of things/governments/societies that are propped up on the idea of basically forever growth.