5 ms·

But the pandemic ends eventually, one way or another. The question is what happens at that point: bacchanal or hermitage.

tenpies 7y ago
I also find it really interesting that no one seems interested in pricing in a second wave of any size. It doesn't even have to be global, just a regional second wave in a tourist hot spot could crush tourism globally.
- whymauri 7y ago
  J.P. Morgan's timeline has a forecasted second wave during mid-late winter 2020-2021. [0] [0] https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/coronavirus-peak-recovery-timeline https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/coronavirus-peak-recover...
  - throwaway9980 7y ago
    Their analysis has new case rates falling off the peak as quickly as we arrived at it. And new case rates almost zero by end of June? This is wildly optimistic. Italy’s chart looks nothing like their forecast for the US.
  - redisman 7y ago
    Looking at what is happening in the US as of right now, I'm fairly sure the second wave will be more like in July 2020. Unless you count it as still the first wave moving in from the coasts to the heartland and then as it moves back out is that the second wave?
rhizome 7y ago
Polio didn't stop. Smallpox is not extinct.
- ashtonkem 7y ago
  We have vaccines for those.
- govg 7y ago
  There are like a couple of hundred cases of Polio every year in the world and for all practical purposes Small pox is extinct.
  - astura 7y ago
    33 reported cases of polio in 2018
    - alluro2 7y ago
      Yeah, but some of them were from episodes of House
- adwn 7y ago
  > Smallpox is not extinct. I beg to differ: "Through the success of the global eradication campaign, smallpox was finally pushed back to the horn of Africa and then to a single last natural case, which occurred in Somalia in 1977. A fatal laboratory-acquired case occurred in the United Kingdom in 1978. The global eradication of smallpox was certified, based on intense verification activities in countries, by a commission of eminent scientists in December 1979 and subsequently endorsed by the World Health Assembly in 1980." (from https://web.archive.org/web/20070921235036/http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/smallpox/en/ https://web.archive.org/web/20070921235036/http://www.who.in... ) The Wikipedia page starts with "Smallpox was an infectious disease". I believe this is one of the most powerful sentences I've ever read on the Internet, and it gives me so much hope for what we can achieve.
  - eatbitseveryday 7y ago
    Smallpox is not extinct: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_controversy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_contr... > The debate centers on whether or not the last two remnants of the virus known to cause smallpox, which are kept in tightly controlled government laboratories in the United States and Russia, should finally and irreversibly be destroyed.
redisman 7y ago
Eventually could be years though. You can't put the travel sector into stasis.

tenpies 7y ago

I also find it really interesting that no one seems interested in pricing in a second wave of any size. It doesn't even have to be global, just a regional second wave in a tourist hot spot could crush tourism globally.

whymauri 7y ago
J.P. Morgan's timeline has a forecasted second wave during mid-late winter 2020-2021. [0] [0] https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/coronavirus-peak-recovery-timeline https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/coronavirus-peak-recover...
- throwaway9980 7y ago
  Their analysis has new case rates falling off the peak as quickly as we arrived at it. And new case rates almost zero by end of June? This is wildly optimistic. Italy’s chart looks nothing like their forecast for the US.
- redisman 7y ago
  Looking at what is happening in the US as of right now, I'm fairly sure the second wave will be more like in July 2020. Unless you count it as still the first wave moving in from the coasts to the heartland and then as it moves back out is that the second wave?

rhizome 7y ago

Polio didn't stop. Smallpox is not extinct.

ashtonkem 7y ago
We have vaccines for those.
govg 7y ago
There are like a couple of hundred cases of Polio every year in the world and for all practical purposes Small pox is extinct.
- astura 7y ago
  33 reported cases of polio in 2018
  - alluro2 7y ago
    Yeah, but some of them were from episodes of House
adwn 7y ago
> Smallpox is not extinct. I beg to differ: "Through the success of the global eradication campaign, smallpox was finally pushed back to the horn of Africa and then to a single last natural case, which occurred in Somalia in 1977. A fatal laboratory-acquired case occurred in the United Kingdom in 1978. The global eradication of smallpox was certified, based on intense verification activities in countries, by a commission of eminent scientists in December 1979 and subsequently endorsed by the World Health Assembly in 1980." (from https://web.archive.org/web/20070921235036/http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/smallpox/en/ https://web.archive.org/web/20070921235036/http://www.who.in... ) The Wikipedia page starts with "Smallpox was an infectious disease". I believe this is one of the most powerful sentences I've ever read on the Internet, and it gives me so much hope for what we can achieve.
- eatbitseveryday 7y ago
  Smallpox is not extinct: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_controversy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_contr... > The debate centers on whether or not the last two remnants of the virus known to cause smallpox, which are kept in tightly controlled government laboratories in the United States and Russia, should finally and irreversibly be destroyed.

redisman 7y ago

Eventually could be years though. You can't put the travel sector into stasis.