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> lower levels of disposable income during the recovery. There's also going to be a lot of pent-up demand from people who didn't lose jobs and had no outlet fo

> lower levels of disposable income during the recovery. There's also going to be a lot of pent-up demand from people who didn't lose jobs and had no outlet for leisure spending during the quarantine. I'm not sure which will win out.

ialyos 7y ago
But most people are capped to how much they'll spend on leisure by their vacation time. So there probably isn't much headroom to be gained for people who are regular travellers post this pandemic.
- jdminhbg 7y ago
  Sure, but like vacation money, vacation time has also been curtailed. I'm currently not on a vacation I had previously planned and working instead, saving both time and money I would have otherwise spent.
  - bagacrap 7y ago
    I'm in the same boat. Dearly wish I could take a vacation but the state has banned short term rentals for some reason (hotels still open though). So when they let us out of house arrest I plan to get out of town asap.
remus 7y ago
On the other hand we're almost certainly heading for a recession so (you would hope) there would be some reticence to over spend on luxuries like holidays.
JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago
The pandemic doesn't end simply because quarantine is lifted. People will seriously question flying or passing through airports, especially as case counts are getting worse while the restrictions are being lifted.
- jdminhbg 7y ago
  But the pandemic ends eventually, one way or another. The question is what happens at that point: bacchanal or hermitage.
  - tenpies 7y ago
    I also find it really interesting that no one seems interested in pricing in a second wave of any size. It doesn't even have to be global, just a regional second wave in a tourist hot spot could crush tourism globally.
    - whymauri 7y ago
      J.P. Morgan's timeline has a forecasted second wave during mid-late winter 2020-2021. [0] [0] https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/coronavirus-peak-recovery-timeline https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/coronavirus-peak-recover...
      - throwaway9980 7y ago
        Their analysis has new case rates falling off the peak as quickly as we arrived at it. And new case rates almost zero by end of June? This is wildly optimistic. Italy’s chart looks nothing like their forecast for the US.
      - redisman 7y ago
        Looking at what is happening in the US as of right now, I'm fairly sure the second wave will be more like in July 2020. Unless you count it as still the first wave moving in from the coasts to the heartland and then as it moves back out is that the second wave?
  - rhizome 7y ago
    Polio didn't stop. Smallpox is not extinct.
    - ashtonkem 7y ago
cm2187 7y ago
France announced their borders will remain pretty much closed after the lockdown. I suspect many countries will do the same.
aaronbrethorst 7y ago
With the United States heading for unemployment numbers estimated to be as high as 15%-20%, I find it hard to believe that people who are still employed are going to be ramping up their discretionary spending. Just because you still have a job in May doesn't mean you'll still have one in August.
ptero 7y ago
Many folks are booking family vacations like crazy using current low prices and hoping to leverage rebooking flexibility. So there will definitely be at least some pent-up demand. This demand could evaporate though if folks who consider their jobs safe start feeling insecure. But I think that if the leisure travel collapses it would be because of the economic declines, not medical risks. My 2c.
asdff 7y ago
Even people with jobs tighten their belts in a recession. Your job could be gone tomorrow. Who was taking vacations in 2008, or 2009 for that matter? Maybe if you have scratch, but 4 in 10 American's can't come up with $400 let alone a vacation.

ialyos 7y ago

But most people are capped to how much they'll spend on leisure by their vacation time. So there probably isn't much headroom to be gained for people who are regular travellers post this pandemic.

jdminhbg 7y ago
Sure, but like vacation money, vacation time has also been curtailed. I'm currently not on a vacation I had previously planned and working instead, saving both time and money I would have otherwise spent.
- bagacrap 7y ago
  I'm in the same boat. Dearly wish I could take a vacation but the state has banned short term rentals for some reason (hotels still open though). So when they let us out of house arrest I plan to get out of town asap.

remus 7y ago

On the other hand we're almost certainly heading for a recession so (you would hope) there would be some reticence to over spend on luxuries like holidays.

JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago

The pandemic doesn't end simply because quarantine is lifted. People will seriously question flying or passing through airports, especially as case counts are getting worse while the restrictions are being lifted.

jdminhbg 7y ago
But the pandemic ends eventually, one way or another. The question is what happens at that point: bacchanal or hermitage.
- tenpies 7y ago
  I also find it really interesting that no one seems interested in pricing in a second wave of any size. It doesn't even have to be global, just a regional second wave in a tourist hot spot could crush tourism globally.
  - whymauri 7y ago
    J.P. Morgan's timeline has a forecasted second wave during mid-late winter 2020-2021. [0] [0] https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/coronavirus-peak-recovery-timeline https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/coronavirus-peak-recover...
    - throwaway9980 7y ago
      Their analysis has new case rates falling off the peak as quickly as we arrived at it. And new case rates almost zero by end of June? This is wildly optimistic. Italy’s chart looks nothing like their forecast for the US.
    - redisman 7y ago
      Looking at what is happening in the US as of right now, I'm fairly sure the second wave will be more like in July 2020. Unless you count it as still the first wave moving in from the coasts to the heartland and then as it moves back out is that the second wave?
- rhizome 7y ago
  Polio didn't stop. Smallpox is not extinct.
  - ashtonkem 7y ago

cm2187 7y ago

France announced their borders will remain pretty much closed after the lockdown. I suspect many countries will do the same.

aaronbrethorst 7y ago

With the United States heading for unemployment numbers estimated to be as high as 15%-20%, I find it hard to believe that people who are still employed are going to be ramping up their discretionary spending. Just because you still have a job in May doesn't mean you'll still have one in August.

ptero 7y ago

Many folks are booking family vacations like crazy using current low prices and hoping to leverage rebooking flexibility. So there will definitely be at least some pent-up demand. This demand could evaporate though if folks who consider their jobs safe start feeling insecure. But I think that if the leisure travel collapses it would be because of the economic declines, not medical risks. My 2c.

asdff 7y ago

Even people with jobs tighten their belts in a recession. Your job could be gone tomorrow. Who was taking vacations in 2008, or 2009 for that matter? Maybe if you have scratch, but 4 in 10 American's can't come up with $400 let alone a vacation.