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Per the article, a random national sample of 1,005 adult, resulting in ±3.5% margin of error. I was pleasantly surprised to discover that they give you a ton o

Per the article, a random national sample of 1,005 adult, resulting in ±3.5% margin of error. I was pleasantly surprised to discover that they give you a ton of information about the survey and analysis (here: https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/8b7e272d-7810-4c89-94dd-17a171790932/note/a144011d-70a1-4768-8849-218ecc98f61c.#page=1 https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/do...) Along with crosstabs for each question here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u7j63YU7FSYsUXxvSMpH8QAENmteY9Sn4vEZljURLSQ/edit?ts=5eb0a6ab#gid=0 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u7j63YU7FSYsUXxvSMpH...

mattrp 7y ago
I guess the poll questions are useful in terms of unrestricted reopening but say nothing about support for partial reopening / reopening with conditions - which in of itself is a bias by omission.
- mattkrause 7y ago
  That's a little harsh, IMO. In the half sample, they asked about eight different kinds of businesses (Question 4a-4h) and with the exception of movie theatres (18%) and golf courses (41%), they were all in the 20s to 30s. As for reopening with conditions, I don't know that there are concrete plans that would be easy to poll. I think you'd lose a lot of people if you had to describe a series of possible schemes in great detail.
generalpass 7y ago
When my observation of the universe is in stark contrast to mathematically correct analyses, I go with my lyin' eyes.
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago
  Your lyin' eyes have a pretty small sample size, though. And not of a random sample.
  - generalpass 7y ago
    > Your lyin' eyes have a pretty small sample size, though. And not of a random sample. What I vaguely recall from stats is that even a small sample size that is really far off from the larger sample is statistically nearly impossible. This means something is amiss, so I defer to my lyin' eyes. I know my eyes, don't know the authors.
  - miscPerson 7y ago
    “The thing I have noticed is that when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There is something wrong with the way that you are measuring it.” — Jeff Bezos Trusting your eyes over people with replication rates in the 20-50% range (ie, social scientists) is probably a rational choice. There’s plenty of evidence that polls have systemic inaccuracies — question phrasing, people giving “right” answers, etc.
    - stuntkite 7y ago
      “You can make up a convenient story for any reality you’d prefer. Whatever you want! It’s crazy. My grandma never measured anything and she’s an airline pilot.” - Abraham Lincoln
      - miscPerson 7y ago
        I’m genuinely unsure what point you’re trying to make. Can you explain what a made up quote has in common with repeating a quote from the CEO of a famously data driven company on problems with data models?
mixmastamyk 7y ago
I don’t see where it mentions rural/urban demographics. Otherwise this is just city folks.
- mattkrause 7y ago
  From the methods (the first link, 4th para under "Methodological Details"): The overall adult sample is weighted using a raking procedure to match the demographic makeup of the population by sex, region, age, education, race/ethnicity, marital status, and population density according to Census Bureau estimates.

mattrp 7y ago

I guess the poll questions are useful in terms of unrestricted reopening but say nothing about support for partial reopening / reopening with conditions - which in of itself is a bias by omission.

mattkrause 7y ago
That's a little harsh, IMO. In the half sample, they asked about eight different kinds of businesses (Question 4a-4h) and with the exception of movie theatres (18%) and golf courses (41%), they were all in the 20s to 30s. As for reopening with conditions, I don't know that there are concrete plans that would be easy to poll. I think you'd lose a lot of people if you had to describe a series of possible schemes in great detail.

generalpass 7y ago

When my observation of the universe is in stark contrast to mathematically correct analyses, I go with my lyin' eyes.

AnimalMuppet 7y ago
Your lyin' eyes have a pretty small sample size, though. And not of a random sample.
- generalpass 7y ago
  > Your lyin' eyes have a pretty small sample size, though. And not of a random sample. What I vaguely recall from stats is that even a small sample size that is really far off from the larger sample is statistically nearly impossible. This means something is amiss, so I defer to my lyin' eyes. I know my eyes, don't know the authors.
- miscPerson 7y ago
  “The thing I have noticed is that when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There is something wrong with the way that you are measuring it.” — Jeff Bezos Trusting your eyes over people with replication rates in the 20-50% range (ie, social scientists) is probably a rational choice. There’s plenty of evidence that polls have systemic inaccuracies — question phrasing, people giving “right” answers, etc.
  - stuntkite 7y ago
    “You can make up a convenient story for any reality you’d prefer. Whatever you want! It’s crazy. My grandma never measured anything and she’s an airline pilot.” - Abraham Lincoln
    - miscPerson 7y ago
      I’m genuinely unsure what point you’re trying to make. Can you explain what a made up quote has in common with repeating a quote from the CEO of a famously data driven company on problems with data models?

mixmastamyk 7y ago

I don’t see where it mentions rural/urban demographics. Otherwise this is just city folks.

mattkrause 7y ago
From the methods (the first link, 4th para under "Methodological Details"): The overall adult sample is weighted using a raking procedure to match the demographic makeup of the population by sex, region, age, education, race/ethnicity, marital status, and population density according to Census Bureau estimates.