5 ms·

Which Americans? All the ones I know IRL want them ended immediately, regardless of their political positions otherwise.

mattkrause 6y ago
Per the article, a random national sample of 1,005 adult, resulting in ±3.5% margin of error. I was pleasantly surprised to discover that they give you a ton of information about the survey and analysis (here: https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/8b7e272d-7810-4c89-94dd-17a171790932/note/a144011d-70a1-4768-8849-218ecc98f61c.#page=1 https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/do...) Along with crosstabs for each question here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u7j63YU7FSYsUXxvSMpH8QAENmteY9Sn4vEZljURLSQ/edit?ts=5eb0a6ab#gid=0 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u7j63YU7FSYsUXxvSMpH...
- mattrp 6y ago
  I guess the poll questions are useful in terms of unrestricted reopening but say nothing about support for partial reopening / reopening with conditions - which in of itself is a bias by omission.
  - mattkrause 6y ago
    That's a little harsh, IMO. In the half sample, they asked about eight different kinds of businesses (Question 4a-4h) and with the exception of movie theatres (18%) and golf courses (41%), they were all in the 20s to 30s. As for reopening with conditions, I don't know that there are concrete plans that would be easy to poll. I think you'd lose a lot of people if you had to describe a series of possible schemes in great detail.
- generalpass 6y ago
  When my observation of the universe is in stark contrast to mathematically correct analyses, I go with my lyin' eyes.
  - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
    Your lyin' eyes have a pretty small sample size, though. And not of a random sample.
    - generalpass 6y ago
      > Your lyin' eyes have a pretty small sample size, though. And not of a random sample. What I vaguely recall from stats is that even a small sample size that is really far off from the larger sample is statistically nearly impossible. This means something is amiss, so I defer to my lyin' eyes. I know my eyes, don't know the authors.
    - miscPerson 6y ago
      “The thing I have noticed is that when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There is something wrong with the way that you are measuring it.” — Jeff Bezos Trusting your eyes over people with replication rates in the 20-50% range (ie, social scientists) is probably a rational choice. There’s plenty of evidence that polls have systemic inaccuracies — question phrasing, people giving “right” answers, etc.
      - stuntkite 6y ago
        “You can make up a convenient story for any reality you’d prefer. Whatever you want! It’s crazy. My grandma never measured anything and she’s an airline pilot.” - Abraham Lincoln
        miscPerson 6y ago
        I’m genuinely unsure what point you’re trying to make. Can you explain what a made up quote has in common with repeating a quote from the CEO of a famously data driven company on problems with data models?
- mixmastamyk 6y ago
  I don’t see where it mentions rural/urban demographics. Otherwise this is just city folks.
  - mattkrause 6y ago
    From the methods (the first link, 4th para under "Methodological Details"): The overall adult sample is weighted using a raking procedure to match the demographic makeup of the population by sex, region, age, education, race/ethnicity, marital status, and population density according to Census Bureau estimates.
_bxg1 6y ago
And everyone I know IRL is saying they won't go out yet even as restrictions are lifted.
- stuntkite 6y ago
  As someone who had the bug and recovered.... these people that say this is no big deal are nuts. Even if you don’t end up on a ventilator it is horrifying. Getting your significant other sick is something I wouldn’t wish on anyone. Our world has changed, we can adjust quick or slow. The techy “libertarians” that wanna shake hands and go to a hackathons are nihilists and it sucks that those decisions are going to kill someone I know.
  - nickpp 6y ago
    The “techy libertarians” were the first hanging signs agains hand shaking and warning everybody willing to listen back in January.
  - generalpass 6y ago
    With the current lockdowns in place, the other problem of mass starvation is eventually going to crop up, though before that happens it will be crowds with pitch forks and torches. Life is suffering.
    - stuntkite 6y ago
      I don't think that binary is helpful. We can make graduated steps to get a new normal. While I do agree that food shortages would be likely, they are still likely. We could be focusing on initiatives to get food to people in their communities that aren't restaurants. I think the nihilist perspective of "make it how it was before and damn the cost" is a failure of imagination. We need to adapt and focus on taking care of our neighbors. There are ways to do that to weather a storm. Apparently we have chosen not to.
- generalpass 6y ago
  > And everyone I know IRL is saying they won't go out yet even as restrictions are lifted. Which supports the point that the lockdowns do not need to be in place because people can take care of themselves.

mattkrause 6y ago

Per the article, a random national sample of 1,005 adult, resulting in ±3.5% margin of error. I was pleasantly surprised to discover that they give you a ton of information about the survey and analysis (here: https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/8b7e272d-7810-4c89-94dd-17a171790932/note/a144011d-70a1-4768-8849-218ecc98f61c.#page=1 https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/do...) Along with crosstabs for each question here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u7j63YU7FSYsUXxvSMpH8QAENmteY9Sn4vEZljURLSQ/edit?ts=5eb0a6ab#gid=0 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u7j63YU7FSYsUXxvSMpH...

mattrp 6y ago
I guess the poll questions are useful in terms of unrestricted reopening but say nothing about support for partial reopening / reopening with conditions - which in of itself is a bias by omission.
- mattkrause 6y ago
  That's a little harsh, IMO. In the half sample, they asked about eight different kinds of businesses (Question 4a-4h) and with the exception of movie theatres (18%) and golf courses (41%), they were all in the 20s to 30s. As for reopening with conditions, I don't know that there are concrete plans that would be easy to poll. I think you'd lose a lot of people if you had to describe a series of possible schemes in great detail.
generalpass 6y ago
When my observation of the universe is in stark contrast to mathematically correct analyses, I go with my lyin' eyes.
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  Your lyin' eyes have a pretty small sample size, though. And not of a random sample.
  - generalpass 6y ago
    > Your lyin' eyes have a pretty small sample size, though. And not of a random sample. What I vaguely recall from stats is that even a small sample size that is really far off from the larger sample is statistically nearly impossible. This means something is amiss, so I defer to my lyin' eyes. I know my eyes, don't know the authors.
  - miscPerson 6y ago
    “The thing I have noticed is that when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There is something wrong with the way that you are measuring it.” — Jeff Bezos Trusting your eyes over people with replication rates in the 20-50% range (ie, social scientists) is probably a rational choice. There’s plenty of evidence that polls have systemic inaccuracies — question phrasing, people giving “right” answers, etc.
    - stuntkite 6y ago
      “You can make up a convenient story for any reality you’d prefer. Whatever you want! It’s crazy. My grandma never measured anything and she’s an airline pilot.” - Abraham Lincoln
      - miscPerson 6y ago
        I’m genuinely unsure what point you’re trying to make. Can you explain what a made up quote has in common with repeating a quote from the CEO of a famously data driven company on problems with data models?
mixmastamyk 6y ago
I don’t see where it mentions rural/urban demographics. Otherwise this is just city folks.
- mattkrause 6y ago
  From the methods (the first link, 4th para under "Methodological Details"): The overall adult sample is weighted using a raking procedure to match the demographic makeup of the population by sex, region, age, education, race/ethnicity, marital status, and population density according to Census Bureau estimates.

_bxg1 6y ago

And everyone I know IRL is saying they won't go out yet even as restrictions are lifted.

stuntkite 6y ago
As someone who had the bug and recovered.... these people that say this is no big deal are nuts. Even if you don’t end up on a ventilator it is horrifying. Getting your significant other sick is something I wouldn’t wish on anyone. Our world has changed, we can adjust quick or slow. The techy “libertarians” that wanna shake hands and go to a hackathons are nihilists and it sucks that those decisions are going to kill someone I know.
- nickpp 6y ago
  The “techy libertarians” were the first hanging signs agains hand shaking and warning everybody willing to listen back in January.
- generalpass 6y ago
  With the current lockdowns in place, the other problem of mass starvation is eventually going to crop up, though before that happens it will be crowds with pitch forks and torches. Life is suffering.
  - stuntkite 6y ago
    I don't think that binary is helpful. We can make graduated steps to get a new normal. While I do agree that food shortages would be likely, they are still likely. We could be focusing on initiatives to get food to people in their communities that aren't restaurants. I think the nihilist perspective of "make it how it was before and damn the cost" is a failure of imagination. We need to adapt and focus on taking care of our neighbors. There are ways to do that to weather a storm. Apparently we have chosen not to.
generalpass 6y ago
> And everyone I know IRL is saying they won't go out yet even as restrictions are lifted. Which supports the point that the lockdowns do not need to be in place because people can take care of themselves.