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> I'm shocked that 2020 revenues will come in only 50% below 2019 This is a fair point, but it also suggests strongly that a significant minority of their busi

> I'm shocked that 2020 revenues will come in only 50% below 2019 This is a fair point, but it also suggests strongly that a significant minority of their business is month to month rentals, possibly in place of leasing. And hey, being frank, I wouldn't mind considering going somewhere else for a few months now that I can work remotely for a while.

blast 7y ago
> a significant minority of their business is month to month rentals I was wondering about that too. My next-door neighbors vacated their place when the lockdown started, but someone else has been living there. Since they often rent their place on Airbnb for weekends, my assumption has been that this is another Airbnb renter. She's been there for over a month now.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
ping_pong 7y ago
I would too, but the thing holding me back is if the shit hits the fan, and I need to do something like buy a freezer to store extra food, I can't conveniently do that in an Airbnb. And if I somehow get sick, I'm at the mercy of the doctors and hospitals in this foreign land. I'd rather be in my own home with the doctors and hospital system that I'm familiar with. I think more than 50% of people feel this way, which is why I think a 50% cut in revenue is too little, I would say its more like an 80-85% cut in revenue. This is catastrophic for Airbnb.
- alephnan 7y ago
  > I’m at the mercy of the doctors and hospitals in this foreign land That’s where you can carefully pick the foreign land whose medical system you trust more than your own home country
  - ping_pong 7y ago
    That would mean that a lot of people would avoid going to the US or other countries where health care is complicated and/or expensive. And I would harbor a guess that travel insurance companies will put in anti-pandemic clauses going forward. That has already started by the way, so who knows what insurers will cover in late 2020.
- mycall 7y ago
  > This is catastrophic for Airbnb. They have a functional system. If they can maintain it going on the cheap, they can pull themselves back up. Still, this gives times for alternatives to come and drink their milkshake.
  - ping_pong 7y ago
    They do have functional infrastructure but their business is suffering a catstrophic shift. As I mention, a lot of the hosts are either going to go into foreclosure or they will convert to long term rentals. A lot of people were buying condos and converting them to Airbnb because the revenues were so predictable. That won't happen in 2020 and 2021. It will take many years for inventory to come back up to 2019 levels and less inventory means less revenues, even if people started to travel again, which also is unlikely in the next couple of years.
  - mikeg8 7y ago
    I think it’s highly unlikely that an upstart is going to steal a noticeable amount of market share from AirBnb during this pandemic. It would be hard enough during normal times when travel volume is much higher.
- speby 7y ago
  If shit hits the fan, there won't be freezers to be bought... they'll get panic purchased instantaneously and, if you did manage to find one for sale, expect it to cost multiple times what you otherwise might have paid.
  - uptown 7y ago
    FYI - They're already gone.
    - r00fus 7y ago
      Jeebus how is this possible - is our supply chain that fragile that things like hand sanitizer (that you can make with alcohol + aloe gel) and freezers run out? Why is there no increased demand-driven supply on these things?
      - hilbertseries 7y ago
        There are plenty of places where you can buy hand sanitizer currently. Any sort of manufacturing takes time to ramp up. There’s a usual demand for freezers and that’s how much is typically made. If everyone decides they want a freezer there’s not enough. Why is this surprising? Sure they may start manufacturing more freezers now, but it’s going to take time and it’s not clear if demand will stay high, so who knows how much will be made. These things continue to be made, so our supply chain is not breaking, it just can’t massively scale up production instantly. I don’t know why this would be surprising.
      - deathgrips 7y ago
        >Why is there no increased demand-driven supply on these things? Most American states prohibit price hikes during a disaster, which prevents companies from producing more during high demand.
        CaptainZapp 7y ago
        > Most American states prohibit price hikes during a disaster, which prevents companies from producing more during high demand. Sorry, but how exactly does that follow?
- djannzjkzxn 7y ago
  To my mind, a freezer is a pretty low priority item if you are trying to mitigate “shit hits the fan” tail risk. You can easily survive without a freezer, and a dependency on a freezer isn’t a good thing in that scenario. Then you just have a bunch of food that’s doing to go bad if the power goes out.
newhouseb 7y ago
I have no real data, but anecdotally a large number of my peer group (tech folks in NYC) fled the NY Metro Area in March. Those who had (not at-risk) family nearby stayed with family, while others (like myself and my partner) are quarantined in Airbnbs in more remote areas (although still close to a functioning medical system). It's costing us an arm and a leg, but we've been very fortunate in that we can afford it. We normally live in a high-traffic apartment building with multiple dogs that require walks, so exposure seemed likely (and indeed a doorman later tested positive).
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
eertami 7y ago
>I wouldn't mind considering going somewhere else for a few months now that I can work remotely for a while. So... you want to take a holiday during a global pandemic?
dilap 7y ago
I was also thinking about this, but I'm wondering if it's irresponsible. Thoughts?
JSavageOne 7y ago
As someone who's spent a significant amount of time staying in AirBnBs and other transient living, renting month-to-month on AirBnB is a terrible idea unless you're fine paying 2-3x more while AirBnB takes the difference. Also if you show up to the property and aren't satisfied with something (eg. WiFi doesn't work), or need to modify your booked dates, it is extremely difficult to get a refund because AirBnB's customer service is awful (to be fair I last had to deal with them in 2017, so maybe things have improved since then). The smarter move is to book a 2-3 days and work out a deal with the host. The current property I'm staying in I originally found on AirBnB for twice the price at which I'm currently paying. And I have the peace of mind of not being locked in to a place for weeks/months in advance since I don't know how long I'll stay here.

blast 7y ago

> a significant minority of their business is month to month rentals I was wondering about that too. My next-door neighbors vacated their place when the lockdown started, but someone else has been living there. Since they often rent their place on Airbnb for weekends, my assumption has been that this is another Airbnb renter. She's been there for over a month now.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

ping_pong 7y ago

I would too, but the thing holding me back is if the shit hits the fan, and I need to do something like buy a freezer to store extra food, I can't conveniently do that in an Airbnb. And if I somehow get sick, I'm at the mercy of the doctors and hospitals in this foreign land. I'd rather be in my own home with the doctors and hospital system that I'm familiar with. I think more than 50% of people feel this way, which is why I think a 50% cut in revenue is too little, I would say its more like an 80-85% cut in revenue. This is catastrophic for Airbnb.

alephnan 7y ago
> I’m at the mercy of the doctors and hospitals in this foreign land That’s where you can carefully pick the foreign land whose medical system you trust more than your own home country
- ping_pong 7y ago
  That would mean that a lot of people would avoid going to the US or other countries where health care is complicated and/or expensive. And I would harbor a guess that travel insurance companies will put in anti-pandemic clauses going forward. That has already started by the way, so who knows what insurers will cover in late 2020.
mycall 7y ago
> This is catastrophic for Airbnb. They have a functional system. If they can maintain it going on the cheap, they can pull themselves back up. Still, this gives times for alternatives to come and drink their milkshake.
- ping_pong 7y ago
  They do have functional infrastructure but their business is suffering a catstrophic shift. As I mention, a lot of the hosts are either going to go into foreclosure or they will convert to long term rentals. A lot of people were buying condos and converting them to Airbnb because the revenues were so predictable. That won't happen in 2020 and 2021. It will take many years for inventory to come back up to 2019 levels and less inventory means less revenues, even if people started to travel again, which also is unlikely in the next couple of years.
- mikeg8 7y ago
  I think it’s highly unlikely that an upstart is going to steal a noticeable amount of market share from AirBnb during this pandemic. It would be hard enough during normal times when travel volume is much higher.
speby 7y ago
If shit hits the fan, there won't be freezers to be bought... they'll get panic purchased instantaneously and, if you did manage to find one for sale, expect it to cost multiple times what you otherwise might have paid.
- uptown 7y ago
  FYI - They're already gone.
  - r00fus 7y ago
    Jeebus how is this possible - is our supply chain that fragile that things like hand sanitizer (that you can make with alcohol + aloe gel) and freezers run out? Why is there no increased demand-driven supply on these things?
    - hilbertseries 7y ago
      There are plenty of places where you can buy hand sanitizer currently. Any sort of manufacturing takes time to ramp up. There’s a usual demand for freezers and that’s how much is typically made. If everyone decides they want a freezer there’s not enough. Why is this surprising? Sure they may start manufacturing more freezers now, but it’s going to take time and it’s not clear if demand will stay high, so who knows how much will be made. These things continue to be made, so our supply chain is not breaking, it just can’t massively scale up production instantly. I don’t know why this would be surprising.
    - deathgrips 7y ago
      >Why is there no increased demand-driven supply on these things? Most American states prohibit price hikes during a disaster, which prevents companies from producing more during high demand.
      - CaptainZapp 7y ago
        > Most American states prohibit price hikes during a disaster, which prevents companies from producing more during high demand. Sorry, but how exactly does that follow?
djannzjkzxn 7y ago
To my mind, a freezer is a pretty low priority item if you are trying to mitigate “shit hits the fan” tail risk. You can easily survive without a freezer, and a dependency on a freezer isn’t a good thing in that scenario. Then you just have a bunch of food that’s doing to go bad if the power goes out.

newhouseb 7y ago

I have no real data, but anecdotally a large number of my peer group (tech folks in NYC) fled the NY Metro Area in March. Those who had (not at-risk) family nearby stayed with family, while others (like myself and my partner) are quarantined in Airbnbs in more remote areas (although still close to a functioning medical system). It's costing us an arm and a leg, but we've been very fortunate in that we can afford it. We normally live in a high-traffic apartment building with multiple dogs that require walks, so exposure seemed likely (and indeed a doorman later tested positive).

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

eertami 7y ago

>I wouldn't mind considering going somewhere else for a few months now that I can work remotely for a while. So... you want to take a holiday during a global pandemic?

dilap 7y ago

I was also thinking about this, but I'm wondering if it's irresponsible. Thoughts?

JSavageOne 7y ago

As someone who's spent a significant amount of time staying in AirBnBs and other transient living, renting month-to-month on AirBnB is a terrible idea unless you're fine paying 2-3x more while AirBnB takes the difference. Also if you show up to the property and aren't satisfied with something (eg. WiFi doesn't work), or need to modify your booked dates, it is extremely difficult to get a refund because AirBnB's customer service is awful (to be fair I last had to deal with them in 2017, so maybe things have improved since then). The smarter move is to book a 2-3 days and work out a deal with the host. The current property I'm staying in I originally found on AirBnB for twice the price at which I'm currently paying. And I have the peace of mind of not being locked in to a place for weeks/months in advance since I don't know how long I'll stay here.