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The lockdown measures can be shown to have very clear effects merely by looking at the data. I've tracked data directly from John's Hopkins & state dept of hea
by toss1 7y ago
The lockdown measures can be shown to have very clear effects merely by looking at the data. I've tracked data directly from John's Hopkins & state dept of health websites, and just off the top of my head without looking at the spreadsheet can say that the growth rate massively (tho insufficiently) is reduced by the lockdown.
Without lockdown, the daily increases in cases & deaths showed a doubling rate of every 3-4 days, sometimes faster. This is also what was reported in Italy earlier in the crisis.
Now, the doubling days in the locked down areas consistently exceeds 25 dsys.
This is not subtle, it is blatantly empirically obvious in the data. No need for theorizing.
I mention that the lockdown may be insufficient, or insufficiently implemented because the growth factor is still on a plateau generally exceeding 1.0,which means that we still have a net spreading, or positive growth rate, i.e., it is not yet being extinguished, only slowed.
So we will need to do more. From looking at other results, that will involve ubiquitous masks, glasses, gloves ang overwhelming program of testing, tracking, & targeted isolation.
Meanwhile, another MIT study (iirc) showed the effects of minor lockdown violations. With full isolation the societal exposure is limited to the essentworkets and their families, about 26% of the population. But if only one household member goes visiting others, the societal exposure increases to 90%++. Just a little casual 'it's no big deal' attitude screws up the whole thing.
Stay well out there, folks.
- manigandham 7y agoMy point is that the US never approached anywhere near the level of isolated lockdown/quarantine of China, and the protections get weaker by the day as people get tired, lazy, and complacent. It seems like the virus has already spread greatly, as confirmed by new rounds of testing showing far more infections while the death rate is stabilizing.
- toss1 7y agoAgree that the US is doing a half-baked lockdown (being generous), inconsistently, and is opening up far too soon. However, looking at the data, the death rate is only increasing; recent weekly series starting 06-April is: 3.0%, 4.1%, 5.4%, 5.7%, to 5.8% yesterday. This is actually low, since today's case count is the wrong denominator, as it has a certain amount of deaths built-in but not counted and this is still in a growth phase. Using [deaths]/[cases_on_day_-7] produces the most consistent numbers for a death rate of about 7.1%. Neither the changes in contagion rate nor death rate, even with the half-baked lockdowns, even approximate support for your contention that lockdowns do not work. They in fact support the opposite conclusion, even half-baked measures reduce the spread, and better measures would be better. The best are proper full testing coverage, tracking, and targeted isolation, as implemented well by South Korea. As to your contention about the contagiousness, it is known that it is not nearly contagious as, say Measles, but is more contagious than Flu.