8 ms·
Your statement isn't logical. Disease spread tends to always show a pretty standard shape. It was that observation (Farr's law) that led to epidemiology being
by thu2111 7y ago
Your statement isn't logical.
Disease spread tends to always show a pretty standard shape. It was that observation (Farr's law) that led to epidemiology being born as a field. It grows, it peaks, it enters immediate decline. Importantly the peak doesn't last long - epidemics don't spend 6 months with a stable number of people getting sick at the peak. Look at graphs of COVID deaths and cases and you'll see the standard pattern.
We know now that this virus has left hospitals virtually everywhere without overload, even in places like Sweden. A few other places were hit much harder. But the response in New York (with mobile morgues) wasn't reported anywhere else. It's apparently some kind of invention of New York policymakers during a brief peak rather than a worldwide phenomenon.
A virus can be spreading and growing for a long time before it attracts attention. The evidence keeps mounting that the first reports in Wuhan were not in fact the first cases after COVID had mutated or crossed from animals but merely the first where doctors decided to search for a novel virus after coming under pressure and noticing some novel symptoms. What you saw in New York was a mix of:
1. Conditions at the absolute peak of infection, not at the start.
2. Media hype and fake news.
For (2) I present https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/cbs-admits-to-using-footage-from-italy-in-report-about-nyc/ https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/cbs-admits-to-using-footage-fr... as evidence. CNBC spliced video from an ICU in Italy into reports about New York without telling anyone. Outright deliberate deception is also the tip of an iceberg: there's far more selective reporting, exaggerated anecdotes and so on. On April 6th Vox reported the entire USA was running out of sedatives needed for ventilation:
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/6/21209589/coronavirus-medicine-ventilators-drug-shortage-sedatives-covid-19 https://www.vox.com/2020/4/6/21209589/coronavirus-medicine-v...
On the same day Gov Cuomo was saying they had enough ventilators with some in reserve. A few days later he was sending them to other parts of the USA.
Whatever you think you know about the situation in New York you really only have a tiny fragment of the whole picture (and the same for me and everyone else posting here). Our understand of reality lies shattered in pieces on the floor, smashed by speed, poor quality data, poor use of data, and extremely poor journalism. All we can do is work to piece together a narrative of what really happened by examining all the evidence we can get. Repeated anecdotes from many different people about having had a COVID-like illness before it was being discussed much are interesting for that reason.
- yomly 7y agoActually a personal friend who is a doctor on the frontline in Paris saw mobile morgues back in late March. So I am capable of personally falsifying your statement: >But the response in New York (with mobile morgues) wasn't reported anywhere else. I lack a citation but I'm not really trying to prove anything either. I don't think New York is isolated. Lombardy seems to be stricken pretty hard, and it's hard for us to know what it was truly like in Wuhan.
- lbeltrame 7y agoSpeaking for Italy: at least part of the high number of deaths might be traced back to hospital infections (such as a massive outbreak in the hospital of Alzano Lombardo, which initially was kept open after a very brief closure) which of course targeted more vulnerable people. Also nursing care homes make up a significant part of the deaths: some infected patients from elsewhere were put there under the "promise" of keeping them separate from the others, and you can imagine what happened later.
- mcbits 7y ago> Importantly the peak doesn't last long - epidemics don't spend 6 months with a stable number of people getting sick at the peak. Look at graphs of COVID deaths and cases and you'll see the standard pattern. What's interesting is that many US states have shown virtually linear growth for more than a month, which is an extended "peak", assuming it's a peak. That depends on if enough of the population is exposed before the interventions are relaxed, or else it will just revert to its natural progression and the media will have something exciting to report on again.
- Majromax 7y ago> What's interesting is that many US states have shown virtually linear growth for more than a month, The US data is tricky to interpret because the nation's testing rate has been growing relatively slowly. Over the past week (Covid tracking project data), the US has reported about 242k tests/day; for the week ending April 7 (so 4 weeks ago), that number was 144k tests/day. In the meantime, an extended peak is consistent with the idea that policy measures in place have reduced the R0, but only to a value close to 1. Suppose stay-at-home orders reduce the number of daily contacts by about 70%, taking the R0 from 2.5 to about 0.8. With an infection period of two weeks, that would only reduce the number of new infections per day by 35% after a month.