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> How likely is it that a virus endemic to bats in southwestern china was first transmitted to humans in a wildlife market in southeastern china where bats are

> How likely is it that a virus endemic to bats in southwestern china was first transmitted to humans in a wildlife market in southeastern china where bats are not sold? Well that's exactly what happened with SARS-1. Patient zero in SARS-1 was a farmer from Guangdong, the same area where the novel coronavirus is suspected to have emerged among bats, where farmers have been found to carry bat coronaviruses. Wuhan is more than 600 miles away from that area. The initial outbreak of SARS-1 was literally where you would expect it to be, among the population where you would expect it to occur. Civets were suspected as transmitters, but that link is neither proven nor necessary to explain the initial outbreak. > Seems completely believable, given that it happened once already. I'm not asking if it is believable. Both scenarios are believable. The "pathogen escapes from lab" scenario happened before as well. I'm asking, which of these appears more likely? Which of these would you be more inclined to believe, if you want to be as far away from right wingers as possible? Which scenario caters to your pro-environmental and pro-science stance?

yorwba 6y ago
> Patient zero in SARS-1 was a farmer from Guangdong, Correct. > the same area where the novel coronavirus is suspected to have emerged among bats, Incorrect, that's Yunnan. > where farmers have been found to carry bat coronaviruses. Yunnan. > Wuhan is more than 600 miles away from that area. I suggest you go find Yunnan, Guangdong and Hubei on a map. Bat caves in Yunnan are full of potentially dangerous coronaviruses, but the farmers living close to the caves are already immune to the strains they're in frequent contact with, so the only way for an outbreak to get big is by long-distance transportation carrying the virus somewhere else.
- gridlockd 6y ago
  The area where these bats live encompasses Yunnan, Guangxi and Guangdong. I quote: "Shi, a virologist who is often called China’s “bat woman” by her colleagues because of her virus-hunting expeditions in bat caves over the past 16 years, walked out of the conference she was attending in Shanghai and hopped on the next train back to Wuhan. “I wondered if [the municipal health authority] got it wrong,” she says. “I had never expected this kind of thing to happen in Wuhan, in central China.” Her studies had shown that the southern, subtropical provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan have the greatest risk of coronaviruses jumping to humans from animals—particularly bats, a known reservoir. If coronaviruses were the culprit, she remembers thinking, “Could they have come from our lab?”" https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-wo... > Bat caves in Yunnan are full of potentially dangerous coronaviruses, but the farmers living close to the caves are already immune to the strains they're in frequent contact with... They're not going to be immune to newly evolved coronaviruses. >... so the only way for an outbreak to get big is by long-distance transportation carrying the virus somewhere else. All it needs is for someone who is infected to travel to the nearest population center.
  - joshuamorton 6y ago
    That bats live in 3 provinces does not change the fact that the bats that were the source of SARS-CoV-1 were traced back to a specific cave in Yunnan.
    - gridlockd 6y ago
      That's inaccurate. Bat coronaviruses that were close to SARS-COV-1 were indeed found in a cave in Yunnan, but that doesn't mean SARS-CoV-1 literally evolved right there or that it first spread to humans in the region - who then somehow carried it to Guangdong, where the actual outbreak occured. SARS-CoV-1 was also found in civets in Guangdong sold at a wildlife market. It is unknown whether the first human transmission went through civets or through bats, but the local civets probably didn't take a trip to Yunnan to get infected. Either way, it doesn't make a difference whether it is Yunnan, Guangxi or Guangdong, those are the areas where these bats live and where you would expect a human transmission to occur. You wouldn't expect it to occur in Wuhan. That's not my personal assessment, that's the assessment of the virologist that personally led the expedition to that Yunnan cave - I quoted her in my previous reply.
      - joshuamorton 6y ago
        > Bat coronaviruses that were close to SARS-COV-1 were indeed found in a cave in Yunnan, but that doesn't mean SARS-CoV-1 literally evolved right Actually my understanding is that that is, in general, the scientific consensus on the matter (including from the scientist you quoted in your prior reply) > or that it first spread to humans in the region - who then somehow carried it to Guangdong Correct, this is unlikely. The leading theories are that an intermediate animal, like a civet for CoV-1 and perhaps pangolins for CoV-2 were the infection vector. > Either way, it doesn't make a difference whether it is Yunnan, Guangxi or Guangdong, Well yes, yes it does. Guangdong and Wuhan are similarly distant from Yunnan. If, as the consensus appears to be, the virus started out in Yunnan, traveling to Wuhan via an animal intermediary is no less likely than traveling to Guangdong via an animal intermediary. > You wouldn't expect it to occur in Wuhan. I made no such claim. I made the claim that the transmission vector for Cov-1 and cov-2 were similar. That they both started in Yunnan and travelled east hundreds of miles via some method, likely a combination of bat migration/movement, civet/pangolin migration/movement, and human movement of captured animals. If you read the updated article, you'd find that she no longer believes the virus could have leaked from her lab, since > its genetic sequence does not match any her lab had previously studied.[0] Of course, she could be pressured into silence by the Chinese government. [0]: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-wo...

yorwba 6y ago

> Patient zero in SARS-1 was a farmer from Guangdong, Correct. > the same area where the novel coronavirus is suspected to have emerged among bats, Incorrect, that's Yunnan. > where farmers have been found to carry bat coronaviruses. Yunnan. > Wuhan is more than 600 miles away from that area. I suggest you go find Yunnan, Guangdong and Hubei on a map. Bat caves in Yunnan are full of potentially dangerous coronaviruses, but the farmers living close to the caves are already immune to the strains they're in frequent contact with, so the only way for an outbreak to get big is by long-distance transportation carrying the virus somewhere else.

gridlockd 6y ago
The area where these bats live encompasses Yunnan, Guangxi and Guangdong. I quote: "Shi, a virologist who is often called China’s “bat woman” by her colleagues because of her virus-hunting expeditions in bat caves over the past 16 years, walked out of the conference she was attending in Shanghai and hopped on the next train back to Wuhan. “I wondered if [the municipal health authority] got it wrong,” she says. “I had never expected this kind of thing to happen in Wuhan, in central China.” Her studies had shown that the southern, subtropical provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan have the greatest risk of coronaviruses jumping to humans from animals—particularly bats, a known reservoir. If coronaviruses were the culprit, she remembers thinking, “Could they have come from our lab?”" https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-wo... > Bat caves in Yunnan are full of potentially dangerous coronaviruses, but the farmers living close to the caves are already immune to the strains they're in frequent contact with... They're not going to be immune to newly evolved coronaviruses. >... so the only way for an outbreak to get big is by long-distance transportation carrying the virus somewhere else. All it needs is for someone who is infected to travel to the nearest population center.
- joshuamorton 6y ago
  That bats live in 3 provinces does not change the fact that the bats that were the source of SARS-CoV-1 were traced back to a specific cave in Yunnan.
  - gridlockd 6y ago
    That's inaccurate. Bat coronaviruses that were close to SARS-COV-1 were indeed found in a cave in Yunnan, but that doesn't mean SARS-CoV-1 literally evolved right there or that it first spread to humans in the region - who then somehow carried it to Guangdong, where the actual outbreak occured. SARS-CoV-1 was also found in civets in Guangdong sold at a wildlife market. It is unknown whether the first human transmission went through civets or through bats, but the local civets probably didn't take a trip to Yunnan to get infected. Either way, it doesn't make a difference whether it is Yunnan, Guangxi or Guangdong, those are the areas where these bats live and where you would expect a human transmission to occur. You wouldn't expect it to occur in Wuhan. That's not my personal assessment, that's the assessment of the virologist that personally led the expedition to that Yunnan cave - I quoted her in my previous reply.
    - joshuamorton 6y ago
      > Bat coronaviruses that were close to SARS-COV-1 were indeed found in a cave in Yunnan, but that doesn't mean SARS-CoV-1 literally evolved right Actually my understanding is that that is, in general, the scientific consensus on the matter (including from the scientist you quoted in your prior reply) > or that it first spread to humans in the region - who then somehow carried it to Guangdong Correct, this is unlikely. The leading theories are that an intermediate animal, like a civet for CoV-1 and perhaps pangolins for CoV-2 were the infection vector. > Either way, it doesn't make a difference whether it is Yunnan, Guangxi or Guangdong, Well yes, yes it does. Guangdong and Wuhan are similarly distant from Yunnan. If, as the consensus appears to be, the virus started out in Yunnan, traveling to Wuhan via an animal intermediary is no less likely than traveling to Guangdong via an animal intermediary. > You wouldn't expect it to occur in Wuhan. I made no such claim. I made the claim that the transmission vector for Cov-1 and cov-2 were similar. That they both started in Yunnan and travelled east hundreds of miles via some method, likely a combination of bat migration/movement, civet/pangolin migration/movement, and human movement of captured animals. If you read the updated article, you'd find that she no longer believes the virus could have leaked from her lab, since > its genetic sequence does not match any her lab had previously studied.[0] Of course, she could be pressured into silence by the Chinese government. [0]: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-wo...