3 ms·

Second and third order consequences of coronavirus

9 points by sturza 6y ago

ceilingcorner 6y ago
Looking at the creator bios, I have a tough time taking this document seriously. Nonetheless there are some decent ideas in here, even if the presentation is less than ideal. My prediction is that many of these predictions are vastly overblown. Most companies and people are treating this as a temporary setback, not a dramatic change. The next time there is a similar event, I also doubt we will see a lockdown of this magnitude. Economists and epidemiologists will be studying this for decades and future response plans will incorporate economic consequences of public health actions. Remote work is a good example. Expect to see some shifts toward working remotely, but not a widespread movement outside of tech. Most people want to physically work with other human beings, rather than sit at home all day. I imagine we will see increased flexibility and redundancy, rather than a total shift to working online.
- alephnan 6y ago
  > Most people want to physically work with other human beings, rather than sit at home all day. I'd have to wait for this to be substantiated with data. A dubious data sample, but on Blind there was such a poll floating around and most participants said they prefer remote
  - ceilingcorner 6y ago
    The vast majority of people aren’t on Blind and aren’t answering online polls. Most people don’t even know what the word remote means, other than the television kind.
    - alephnan 6y ago
      To add to this, developers rear towards focused individual contributor work
alephnan 6y ago
In the doc, the doc creator self-described as "Middle school dropout" I'm sure the person is no dummy, but I have to wonder what is the value of highlighting this? To show they are contrarian? Does that make the doc more trustworthy? It feels like a lot of contrarians feel compelled to highlight personality traits rather than let their ideas grow root
- ceilingcorner 6y ago
  Logical conclusion of the tech world’s obsession with dropping out of college. “Jobs, Zuckerberg and Gates are dropouts, so if I’m a dropout too, it means I’ll be just as successful. I’ll even beat them at their own cargo-culting status game by dropping out of middle school, rather than college.”
  - alephnan 6y ago
    A slacker once told me during university "C students are CEOs and I'm a C student, therefore all of you will work for me." Not only is this a fallacy, the premise is not backed by data.
    - ceilingcorner 6y ago
      There’s probably some truth in the idea that the students who focus obsessively on getting good grades, to the exclusion of building social connections, doing internships, etc. are less successful in a traditional career sense. Of course that doesn’t mean being a C student automatically makes you into a CEO.

9 points by sturza 6y ago

Looking at the creator bios, I have a tough time taking this document seriously. Nonetheless there are some decent ideas in here, even if the presentation is less than ideal. My prediction is that many of these predictions are vastly overblown. Most companies and people are treating this as a temporary setback, not a dramatic change. The next time there is a similar event, I also doubt we will see a lockdown of this magnitude. Economists and epidemiologists will be studying this for decades and future response plans will incorporate economic consequences of public health actions. Remote work is a good example. Expect to see some shifts toward working remotely, but not a widespread movement outside of tech. Most people want to physically work with other human beings, rather than sit at home all day. I imagine we will see increased flexibility and redundancy, rather than a total shift to working online.

alephnan 6y ago
> Most people want to physically work with other human beings, rather than sit at home all day. I'd have to wait for this to be substantiated with data. A dubious data sample, but on Blind there was such a poll floating around and most participants said they prefer remote
- ceilingcorner 6y ago
  The vast majority of people aren’t on Blind and aren’t answering online polls. Most people don’t even know what the word remote means, other than the television kind.
  - alephnan 6y ago
    To add to this, developers rear towards focused individual contributor work

alephnan 6y ago

In the doc, the doc creator self-described as "Middle school dropout" I'm sure the person is no dummy, but I have to wonder what is the value of highlighting this? To show they are contrarian? Does that make the doc more trustworthy? It feels like a lot of contrarians feel compelled to highlight personality traits rather than let their ideas grow root

ceilingcorner 6y ago
Logical conclusion of the tech world’s obsession with dropping out of college. “Jobs, Zuckerberg and Gates are dropouts, so if I’m a dropout too, it means I’ll be just as successful. I’ll even beat them at their own cargo-culting status game by dropping out of middle school, rather than college.”
- alephnan 6y ago
  A slacker once told me during university "C students are CEOs and I'm a C student, therefore all of you will work for me." Not only is this a fallacy, the premise is not backed by data.
  - ceilingcorner 6y ago
    There’s probably some truth in the idea that the students who focus obsessively on getting good grades, to the exclusion of building social connections, doing internships, etc. are less successful in a traditional career sense. Of course that doesn’t mean being a C student automatically makes you into a CEO.