4 ms·
The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic killed in the ballpark of 10k people in the US. I don't recall ever seeing mainstream news outlets reporting in the ballpark of 100k reco
by rallison 6y ago
The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic killed in the ballpark of 10k people in the US. I don't recall ever seeing mainstream news outlets reporting in the ballpark of 100k recorded deaths.
It's been 7 weeks since the Imperial College model that predicted up to 2.2 million deaths in the US, that used an infection fatality rate of 0.9% as an assumption. The best science still has us in the 0.5% to 1% range for IFR, still putting us in the 1-2 million range if let ourselves get to herd immunity levels without a vaccine.
I think we'll avoid getting to 1-2 million, but it'll be because we take actions along the way to push some/most infections to post-vaccine or post-effective treatments.
> Try to reach it without a vaccine, and millions will die.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/opinion/sunday/coronaviru...
- steveeq1 6y agoWe are going to have nowhere near 1-2 million deaths from this. and the IFR range is around 0.2%, not 0.5 - 1%. And of course we will get herd immunity soon, with the way exponentials work. We are re-opening the economy! We will reach herd immunity far quicker than we will get a vaccine.