4 ms·

There's no way that it will reach 1-2 million. My guess is that it will be the same thing like swine flu 10 years ago. The media will print out a sensationaliz

• rallison 6y ago
  The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic killed in the ballpark of 10k people in the US. I don't recall ever seeing mainstream news outlets reporting in the ballpark of 100k recorded deaths. It's been 7 weeks since the Imperial College model that predicted up to 2.2 million deaths in the US, that used an infection fatality rate of 0.9% as an assumption. The best science still has us in the 0.5% to 1% range for IFR, still putting us in the 1-2 million range if let ourselves get to herd immunity levels without a vaccine. I think we'll avoid getting to 1-2 million, but it'll be because we take actions along the way to push some/most infections to post-vaccine or post-effective treatments. > Try to reach it without a vaccine, and millions will die. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/opinion/sunday/coronaviru...
  • steveeq1 6y ago
    We are going to have nowhere near 1-2 million deaths from this. and the IFR range is around 0.2%, not 0.5 - 1%. And of course we will get herd immunity soon, with the way exponentials work. We are re-opening the economy! We will reach herd immunity far quicker than we will get a vaccine.
• pinkfoot 6y ago
  > My guess is… What a well reasoned rebuttal.