4 ms·

This reminds me of the "Glaciers will melt within X years" studies, which ended up being wrong[1]. [1] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/07/glacier-national-

by jb775 6y ago

This reminds me of the "Glaciers will melt within X years" studies, which ended up being wrong[1]. [1] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/07/glacier-national-park-quietly-removes-its-gone-by-2020-signs/ https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/07/glacier-national-park...

polotics 6y ago
This reminds me of the limits to growth mit model, which is ending up being right all the way back since 1970.
3fe9a03ccd14ca5 6y ago
The 70s and 80s were great times for failed predictions. There’s unfortunately never any accountability with this type of thing, and instead we have a slow erosion of trust and general apathy. https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-failed-eco-pocalyp...
- saagarjha 6y ago
  Taking the most extreme predictions and then pulling them from headlines that misrepresent them, then cherry picking from that is a fairly poor way to organize an argument.
  - b3nji 6y ago
    I agree, what models and predictions have come true that have been presented in the headlines? To start with accurate predictions as a base, then present the models and predictions that failed would put things into perspective.
  - mistermann 6y ago
    Trust and apathy is still growing. Whether you like it or not, this is not unimportant. Nature is forcing it up on us. How shall we deal with it?
  - taborj 6y ago
    > Taking the most extreme predictions and then pulling them from headlines that misrepresent them By the way, you've accurately described what the mainstream media does with climate change (and many other topics). Also, those are the same sources a vast majority of the population uses to get their news. So, poor or not, it's unfortunately the norm, and as such it erodes the confidence in articles that place a timeline on our doom.
tobr 6y ago
Could you maybe write a word on what it is that reminds you of that? Or are you just hoping it’s wrong? I mean, you can dig up any number of wrong or right historical predictions, but that doesn’t really help anyone draw any conclusions about this one.
Joof 6y ago
This reminds me of how we model things, but there are also variables that change before they actually happen.
Bombthecat 6y ago
This reminds me: because other studies were wrong. Every other is also wrong.
hyko 6y ago
I always find it strange that people use forecasting failures as an excuse for inaction on climate change. If you were driving a car and you couldn’t see five feet in front of you, you probably wouldn’t think acceleration was a prudent course of action.
phaemon 6y ago
This reminds me that gullible people are still getting fooled by Anthony Watts' inane garbage: https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/09/fact-check-no-the-glaciers-are-not-growing-in-glacier-national-park/ https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/09/fact-check-no... How's his own predictions of a new Little Ice Age in 2016 looking? You know, when the Solar Cycle hits its minimum? Watts not only gets the year wrong, he gets the entire direction wrong. You'd think he'd manage to be a bit less sneering about others predictions when his own are so utterly crap.

by jb775 6y ago

polotics 6y ago

This reminds me of the limits to growth mit model, which is ending up being right all the way back since 1970.

3fe9a03ccd14ca5 6y ago

The 70s and 80s were great times for failed predictions. There’s unfortunately never any accountability with this type of thing, and instead we have a slow erosion of trust and general apathy. https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-failed-eco-pocalyp...

saagarjha 6y ago
Taking the most extreme predictions and then pulling them from headlines that misrepresent them, then cherry picking from that is a fairly poor way to organize an argument.
- b3nji 6y ago
  I agree, what models and predictions have come true that have been presented in the headlines? To start with accurate predictions as a base, then present the models and predictions that failed would put things into perspective.
- mistermann 6y ago
  Trust and apathy is still growing. Whether you like it or not, this is not unimportant. Nature is forcing it up on us. How shall we deal with it?
- taborj 6y ago
  > Taking the most extreme predictions and then pulling them from headlines that misrepresent them By the way, you've accurately described what the mainstream media does with climate change (and many other topics). Also, those are the same sources a vast majority of the population uses to get their news. So, poor or not, it's unfortunately the norm, and as such it erodes the confidence in articles that place a timeline on our doom.

tobr 6y ago

Could you maybe write a word on what it is that reminds you of that? Or are you just hoping it’s wrong? I mean, you can dig up any number of wrong or right historical predictions, but that doesn’t really help anyone draw any conclusions about this one.

Joof 6y ago

This reminds me of how we model things, but there are also variables that change before they actually happen.

Bombthecat 6y ago

This reminds me: because other studies were wrong. Every other is also wrong.

hyko 6y ago

I always find it strange that people use forecasting failures as an excuse for inaction on climate change. If you were driving a car and you couldn’t see five feet in front of you, you probably wouldn’t think acceleration was a prudent course of action.

phaemon 6y ago

This reminds me that gullible people are still getting fooled by Anthony Watts' inane garbage: https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/09/fact-check-no-the-glaciers-are-not-growing-in-glacier-national-park/ https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/09/fact-check-no... How's his own predictions of a new Little Ice Age in 2016 looking? You know, when the Solar Cycle hits its minimum? Watts not only gets the year wrong, he gets the entire direction wrong. You'd think he'd manage to be a bit less sneering about others predictions when his own are so utterly crap.