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That's not how that works. It's also most likely still an undercount. Confirmed plus probable cases are thousands short of total excess deaths for that period

That's not how that works. It's also most likely still an undercount. Confirmed plus probable cases are thousands short of total excess deaths for that period for New York City.

mlyle 6y ago
Ascribing all excess deaths to coronavirus is a mistake. People are avoiding ERs and doctors; the incidence of typical CVA, MI, etc, in hospitals is way down. Not because we're having fewer CVAs and MIs, but because people are dying at home instead of being treated. (Prolonging the epidemic increases the number of people who will die this way, too).
- rallison 6y ago
  > Ascribing all excess deaths to coronavirus is a mistake. I worded my statement intentionally. > It's also most likely still an undercount Some of the excess deaths will be other things. It will take more careful analysis to come up with reasonable breakdowns, and what percentage is likely covid-19 deaths. Basically, as this article mentions - https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/05/02/excess-deaths-during-covid-19/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/05/02/exc... > “I think people need to be aware that the data they’re seeing on deaths is very incomplete,” said Dan Weinberger, a Yale professor of epidemiology who led the analysis for The Post. > Those excess deaths — the number beyond what would normally be expected for that time of year — are not necessarily attributable directly to covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. They could include people with unrelated maladies who avoided hospitals for fear of being exposed or who couldn’t get the care they needed from overwhelmed health systems, as well as some number of deaths that are part of the ordinary variation in the death rate. The number is affected by increases or decreases in other categories of deaths, such as traffic fatalities and homicides. > But excess deaths are a starting point for scientists to assess the overall impact of the pandemic.

That's not how that works. It's also most likely still an undercount. Confirmed plus probable cases are thousands short of total excess deaths for that period for New York City.

mlyle 6y ago

Ascribing all excess deaths to coronavirus is a mistake. People are avoiding ERs and doctors; the incidence of typical CVA, MI, etc, in hospitals is way down. Not because we're having fewer CVAs and MIs, but because people are dying at home instead of being treated. (Prolonging the epidemic increases the number of people who will die this way, too).

rallison 6y ago
> Ascribing all excess deaths to coronavirus is a mistake. I worded my statement intentionally. > It's also most likely still an undercount Some of the excess deaths will be other things. It will take more careful analysis to come up with reasonable breakdowns, and what percentage is likely covid-19 deaths. Basically, as this article mentions - https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/05/02/excess-deaths-during-covid-19/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/05/02/exc... > “I think people need to be aware that the data they’re seeing on deaths is very incomplete,” said Dan Weinberger, a Yale professor of epidemiology who led the analysis for The Post. > Those excess deaths — the number beyond what would normally be expected for that time of year — are not necessarily attributable directly to covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. They could include people with unrelated maladies who avoided hospitals for fear of being exposed or who couldn’t get the care they needed from overwhelmed health systems, as well as some number of deaths that are part of the ordinary variation in the death rate. The number is affected by increases or decreases in other categories of deaths, such as traffic fatalities and homicides. > But excess deaths are a starting point for scientists to assess the overall impact of the pandemic.