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Just because there's speculation doesn't make it a bubble. Look at oil prices. They've been supremely inflated by commodities and futures traders, but they'll
by redthrowaway 16y ago
Just because there's speculation doesn't make it a bubble. Look at oil prices. They've been supremely inflated by commodities and futures traders, but they'll remain inflated as long as there's sufficient trading volume to keep them up. If they ever deflate, it's not like it will bankrupt the oil industry.
A tech bubble is only a problem if its bursting would destroy sufficient wealth so as to impact the viability of future innovation. Taking facebook as the canonical example, popping that bubble is only a problem if a lot of the wrong people lose their money. GS losing their money doesn't really hurt anybody but GS and their clients. FB's VCs have all gotten their money back by now, so they're fine.
In order for the bubble that everyone here fears (startups) to burst, you would have to have the widescale destruction of wealth through the failure of many highly-priced startups. It would have to remove enough investors from the market to make money "sticky", that is, to the point where it stops flowing. If you look at the silly valuations out there, Facebook isn't going anywhere and isn't losing money, so they've got time to figure things out. Groupon makes disgusting amounts of money. Twitter... well, they're dispensible and their valuation isn't too ridiculous.
Even the "service not business" startups aren't taking much money out of the ecosystem. We might be in for an adjustment, but it shouldn't get to the point where good startups have trouble finding money.