4 ms·

I think it’s pretty clear that having a large portion of the city spend an hour a day packed together with 80 or so other people is going to increase transmissi

I think it’s pretty clear that having a large portion of the city spend an hour a day packed together with 80 or so other people is going to increase transmission from a droplet spread disease.

jgwil2 7y ago
Interesting hypothesis. We should sill look at the evidence before stating it as fact.
- cameldrv 7y ago
  In Wuhan, 11% of traced contacts came back to transport. One thing that might help would be to open the windows in the subway cars.
jcranmer 7y ago
As opposed to people living packed together in dense apartment blocks? Or working in crowded office blocks? Or spending leisure time in crowded recreational facilities? Or shopping in crowded stories? Or eating in crowded restaurants? Yes, subways are crowded, but so is everything else in NYC. As for why NYC is doing much worse than other comparably dense cities worldwide, my thesis is that it's a failure at all levels of civic participation (federal, state, local, and even residential and commercial proprietors) to be proactive in counteracting the spread of coronavirus.
- runawaybottle 7y ago
  https://youtu.be/R5K5ZBDPB3g https://youtu.be/R5K5ZBDPB3g That’s rush hour. Let’s not kid ourselves.
  - jcranmer 7y ago
    Have you seen what the street above that station (note the station name) looks like during non-rush-hour situations? It's still that crowded. (I'll also point out that you picked literally the busiest station on the entire system to use as an example.)
    - runawaybottle 7y ago
      Just a quick YouTube search. I’m a life long long New Yorker, I can promise you that’s not the busiest. I can try to find you some video of the 7 line, it’s like that all the way from Grand Central to Main Street Flushing during rush hour. The thing about the subway is that we all try to hold onto a pole or bar, total vectors for the spread. It’s not just an obvious case of being near each other, we’re forced to touch the same surfaces so we don’t collide every 30 seconds.
      - jcranmer 7y ago
        MTA says Times Square is the busiest station, by a not-even-close margin (63M annual versus 44M for #2): http://web.mta.info/nyct/facts/ridership/ridership_sub_annual.htm http://web.mta.info/nyct/facts/ridership/ridership_sub_annua...
        runawaybottle 7y ago
        Ah right, I didn’t even check to see the station. My larger point is there are many many stations that look just like that during rush hour.
        jcranmer 7y ago
        I don't doubt you. But my larger point is that there are plenty of other situations in NYC where there's sufficient crowding for coronavirus spread.
        foobarian 7y ago
        Well, it may move the most riders, but if it has more trains the cars may not end up as crowded. OK way into nitpicking territory now :)
- dba7dba 7y ago
  Below case study of Covid-19 spreading in a call center in middle of Seoul is pretty illuminating. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/opinions/eye-opening-south-korea-study-on-covid-19-sepkowitz/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/opinions/eye-opening-south-ko... The case study covers infections in a 19-story mixed commercial-residential building. First case was reported on March 9, 2020. The office seating diagram provided in the article shows extended (10 min or 1hr not sure), very close proximity spacing physically is the main reason for the spread. Note that this was a call center so people were sitting and talking without masks on for extended periods. * On March 9, one day after the first cases were reported, the entire building was closed. Testing was performed almost immediately on 1,143 people (workers, residents and a few visitors) with rapid results available to those affected and the team working to control the situation. The testing showed that 97 people (8.5% of those occupying the building) were infected. Most of the cases were women in their 30s and almost all (94 of the 97) worked on the 11th floor of the building, in the call center.* I counted colored seats in the diagram and found 84 people in the call center got infected. I think NYC got hit particularly hard because of subway cars. Enclosed in nearly airtight space for 10 - 30 minutes at a time.
- cameldrv 7y ago
  More people in a single apartment will definitely increase spread. I'm not sure small apartments per se make any difference unless the ventilation is interconnected. I'm not sure how common that is. I agree that everything is more crowded in NYC, but the only thing I can think of more crowded than a subway car is a nightclub. Estimating from ridership numbers, the average New Yorker rides the subway 15-30 minutes per day. The ceilings aren't even that high, just the number of people per unit volume is incredible. One of the case studies I saw showed it spreading on a long distance bus between people sitting four rows away from each other.
ancientworldnow 7y ago
Rush hour cars have 200+ people in them and essentially no air circulation. Generally you're just inches away from people if you aren't outright touching.

I think it’s pretty clear that having a large portion of the city spend an hour a day packed together with 80 or so other people is going to increase transmission from a droplet spread disease.

jgwil2 7y ago

Interesting hypothesis. We should sill look at the evidence before stating it as fact.

cameldrv 7y ago
In Wuhan, 11% of traced contacts came back to transport. One thing that might help would be to open the windows in the subway cars.

jcranmer 7y ago

As opposed to people living packed together in dense apartment blocks? Or working in crowded office blocks? Or spending leisure time in crowded recreational facilities? Or shopping in crowded stories? Or eating in crowded restaurants? Yes, subways are crowded, but so is everything else in NYC. As for why NYC is doing much worse than other comparably dense cities worldwide, my thesis is that it's a failure at all levels of civic participation (federal, state, local, and even residential and commercial proprietors) to be proactive in counteracting the spread of coronavirus.

runawaybottle 7y ago
https://youtu.be/R5K5ZBDPB3g https://youtu.be/R5K5ZBDPB3g That’s rush hour. Let’s not kid ourselves.
- jcranmer 7y ago
  Have you seen what the street above that station (note the station name) looks like during non-rush-hour situations? It's still that crowded. (I'll also point out that you picked literally the busiest station on the entire system to use as an example.)
  - runawaybottle 7y ago
    Just a quick YouTube search. I’m a life long long New Yorker, I can promise you that’s not the busiest. I can try to find you some video of the 7 line, it’s like that all the way from Grand Central to Main Street Flushing during rush hour. The thing about the subway is that we all try to hold onto a pole or bar, total vectors for the spread. It’s not just an obvious case of being near each other, we’re forced to touch the same surfaces so we don’t collide every 30 seconds.
    - jcranmer 7y ago
      MTA says Times Square is the busiest station, by a not-even-close margin (63M annual versus 44M for #2): http://web.mta.info/nyct/facts/ridership/ridership_sub_annual.htm http://web.mta.info/nyct/facts/ridership/ridership_sub_annua...
      - runawaybottle 7y ago
        Ah right, I didn’t even check to see the station. My larger point is there are many many stations that look just like that during rush hour.
        jcranmer 7y ago
        I don't doubt you. But my larger point is that there are plenty of other situations in NYC where there's sufficient crowding for coronavirus spread.
        foobarian 7y ago
        Well, it may move the most riders, but if it has more trains the cars may not end up as crowded. OK way into nitpicking territory now :)
dba7dba 7y ago
Below case study of Covid-19 spreading in a call center in middle of Seoul is pretty illuminating. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/opinions/eye-opening-south-korea-study-on-covid-19-sepkowitz/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/opinions/eye-opening-south-ko... The case study covers infections in a 19-story mixed commercial-residential building. First case was reported on March 9, 2020. The office seating diagram provided in the article shows extended (10 min or 1hr not sure), very close proximity spacing physically is the main reason for the spread. Note that this was a call center so people were sitting and talking without masks on for extended periods. * On March 9, one day after the first cases were reported, the entire building was closed. Testing was performed almost immediately on 1,143 people (workers, residents and a few visitors) with rapid results available to those affected and the team working to control the situation. The testing showed that 97 people (8.5% of those occupying the building) were infected. Most of the cases were women in their 30s and almost all (94 of the 97) worked on the 11th floor of the building, in the call center.* I counted colored seats in the diagram and found 84 people in the call center got infected. I think NYC got hit particularly hard because of subway cars. Enclosed in nearly airtight space for 10 - 30 minutes at a time.
cameldrv 7y ago
More people in a single apartment will definitely increase spread. I'm not sure small apartments per se make any difference unless the ventilation is interconnected. I'm not sure how common that is. I agree that everything is more crowded in NYC, but the only thing I can think of more crowded than a subway car is a nightclub. Estimating from ridership numbers, the average New Yorker rides the subway 15-30 minutes per day. The ceilings aren't even that high, just the number of people per unit volume is incredible. One of the case studies I saw showed it spreading on a long distance bus between people sitting four rows away from each other.

ancientworldnow 7y ago

Rush hour cars have 200+ people in them and essentially no air circulation. Generally you're just inches away from people if you aren't outright touching.