6 ms·

On the world stage: • America will still be a strong player, but not completely dominant anymore. • China will successfully assert itself in East Asia, OR for

by geowwy 6y ago

On the world stage: • America will still be a strong player, but not completely dominant anymore. • China will successfully assert itself in East Asia, OR force Japan, Taiwan, Phillipines, Vietnam, etc into a strong anti-China alliance. • India and Europe will act more and more independently of the US. • Turkey will seek to assert itself in former Ottoman territories, possibly leading to a period of peace in the Middle East if successful. Technologically: • Nothing groundbreaking in computer hardware. • Still no self driving cars or compelling voice interfaces. • Electric cars gain ground, but other forms of electric transportation become wildly popular. • Having a driving license will become less common. Driving may become something left to the professionals, with more stringent tests and requirements. • Meat alternatives become mainstream. People start to look down upon eating real meat. Socially/economically: • Continued urbanisation of the population. • Continued slowing the the birth rate. • Dwelling places keep getting smaller. • Long term monogamous relationships become more uncommon. • Wage stagnation • Retail shopping almost dies out • Entertainment is mostly online Politically: • Prison abolition movement will become stronger. • Primitivist movement will get much bigger. They will seek to return to the country and a more independent, primitive way of life. When laws and social circumstances don't allow this they will turn to terrorism.

dntbnmpls 6y ago
> • America will still be a strong player, but not completely dominant anymore. I suspect we'll still be the only dominant global power in 2040. > • China will successfully assert itself in East Asia, OR force Japan, Taiwan, Phillipines, Vietnam, etc into a strong anti-China alliance. The largest trading partner of every nation you listed is China. The idea of an Japan, Tawian, Philippines, Vietnam, etc forming an anti-China alliance is as absurd as mexico and canada forming an anti-US alliance. It makes no economic, political or historical sense. But anything can happen. It's more likely they'll form an anti-US alliance considering Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, etc was invaded by the US at one point or another. But the likelihood of that is 0. > • India and Europe will act more and more independently of the US. India has always acted independently of the US. They were one of the major non-aligned nations during the cold war. > • Turkey will seek to assert itself in former Ottoman territories, possibly leading to a period of peace in the Middle East if successful. What? You think Turkey will be able to push out the US/EU/Russia/etc from the middle east? Even if the US/EU/Russia/etc left, you think Turkey will be able to challenge Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc for dominance in the middle east? I couldn't disagree with you more on the geopolitics. As for your technology predictions, I unfortunately disagree with you on everything. We'll have self-driving cars, there will be groudbreaking developments in computer hardware technology ( quantum computers, VR, GPU, memory, etc ) and real meat consumption will rise as more of the underdeveloped nations get wealthy enough to afford real meat. I have no issues with the rest of your predictions as they seem more likely than your previous predictions.
- echelon 6y ago
  I don't know why you've been downvoted. The US still commands a healthy lead, and there is a lot of political will to extricate China from our supply chain. The US isn't the only country that wants to do this. I suspect that China lags in military and economic development, that Covid-19 is an inflection point in their growth, and that they will have too many domestic issues to solve before reasserting themselves on the world's stage. Meanwhile the US is going to steal "One Belt One Road" and do it ourselves.
elil17 6y ago
> Prison abolition movement will become stronger. I really want this to happen. In the past decade, we saw the first mass pardons of people in the U.S. imprisoned for drug charges. This would have been unimaginable during the height of the "War on Drugs." This gives me hope that the imprisonment rate will continue to decline.
- Kiro 6y ago
  Unless crimes are actually going down I don't see how lower imprisonment rate is good. Just sounds like criminals getting away with it to me.
  - franze 6y ago
    So basically: imprison more people -> cost goes up -> crime does not go down -> imprison more people -> cost goes up -> crime does not go down -> imprison more people ->.... Does not sound too clever in my book. Maybe time to try something else?
    - Kiro 6y ago
      What are the alternatives? For me, punishing criminals is more important than rehabilitating them.
      - bryal 6y ago
        I think the goal should be to prevent crime.
      - geowwy 6y ago
        There are lots of alternatives. Prison was not that common until recently.
      - elil17 6y ago
        Why is punishing people more important than preventing recidivism?
sneak 6y ago
> America will still be a strong player, but not completely dominant anymore. What is the objective evaluation criteria for this prediction? I think this is true today.
CM30 6y ago
> • China will successfully assert itself in East Asia, OR force Japan, Taiwan, Phillipines, Vietnam, etc into a strong anti-China alliance. Honestly, I'd probably guess the second one. China is already distrusted by a lot of countries/governments in the region. > Retail shopping almost dies out I don't see this happening to be honest. Online purchases will definitely increase for the foreseeable future, but there are always going to be a decent amount of offline shops and restaurants too, simply because not everyone wants to wait for products, not everyone wants to socialise online and some kinds of products are simply easier/better bought there. It will be interesting to see which types of shops die out though. I doubt supermarkets are going anywhere, but media/entertainment shops like Gamestop/GAME/HMV might as well as start preparing for their inevitable bankruptcy. > Entertainment is mostly online Also question this, though it depends what you mean by online here. Buying a game/movie/TV show/music album/book online and having it delivered then enjoyed offline? Or just digital downloads?
ryandrake 6y ago
I wonder why everyone predicts the world is going to be so radically different in just 20 years? What will drive that, and why hasn't it happened in the last 20 years? Politically, economically, socially, things change very slowly. The status quo is one of the most powerful forces in the world, and it will continue to stay powerful. My prediction for 2040: The world will be pretty close to what it is in 2020, which is also pretty close to what it was in 2000. Really the only major difference between my life now and my life in 2000 is that there are mobile phones all over the place, and people are glued to them.

by geowwy 6y ago

dntbnmpls 6y ago

> • America will still be a strong player, but not completely dominant anymore. I suspect we'll still be the only dominant global power in 2040. > • China will successfully assert itself in East Asia, OR force Japan, Taiwan, Phillipines, Vietnam, etc into a strong anti-China alliance. The largest trading partner of every nation you listed is China. The idea of an Japan, Tawian, Philippines, Vietnam, etc forming an anti-China alliance is as absurd as mexico and canada forming an anti-US alliance. It makes no economic, political or historical sense. But anything can happen. It's more likely they'll form an anti-US alliance considering Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, etc was invaded by the US at one point or another. But the likelihood of that is 0. > • India and Europe will act more and more independently of the US. India has always acted independently of the US. They were one of the major non-aligned nations during the cold war. > • Turkey will seek to assert itself in former Ottoman territories, possibly leading to a period of peace in the Middle East if successful. What? You think Turkey will be able to push out the US/EU/Russia/etc from the middle east? Even if the US/EU/Russia/etc left, you think Turkey will be able to challenge Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc for dominance in the middle east? I couldn't disagree with you more on the geopolitics. As for your technology predictions, I unfortunately disagree with you on everything. We'll have self-driving cars, there will be groudbreaking developments in computer hardware technology ( quantum computers, VR, GPU, memory, etc ) and real meat consumption will rise as more of the underdeveloped nations get wealthy enough to afford real meat. I have no issues with the rest of your predictions as they seem more likely than your previous predictions.

echelon 6y ago
I don't know why you've been downvoted. The US still commands a healthy lead, and there is a lot of political will to extricate China from our supply chain. The US isn't the only country that wants to do this. I suspect that China lags in military and economic development, that Covid-19 is an inflection point in their growth, and that they will have too many domestic issues to solve before reasserting themselves on the world's stage. Meanwhile the US is going to steal "One Belt One Road" and do it ourselves.

elil17 6y ago

> Prison abolition movement will become stronger. I really want this to happen. In the past decade, we saw the first mass pardons of people in the U.S. imprisoned for drug charges. This would have been unimaginable during the height of the "War on Drugs." This gives me hope that the imprisonment rate will continue to decline.

Kiro 6y ago
Unless crimes are actually going down I don't see how lower imprisonment rate is good. Just sounds like criminals getting away with it to me.
- franze 6y ago
  So basically: imprison more people -> cost goes up -> crime does not go down -> imprison more people -> cost goes up -> crime does not go down -> imprison more people ->.... Does not sound too clever in my book. Maybe time to try something else?
  - Kiro 6y ago
    What are the alternatives? For me, punishing criminals is more important than rehabilitating them.
    - bryal 6y ago
      I think the goal should be to prevent crime.
    - geowwy 6y ago
      There are lots of alternatives. Prison was not that common until recently.
    - elil17 6y ago
      Why is punishing people more important than preventing recidivism?

sneak 6y ago

> America will still be a strong player, but not completely dominant anymore. What is the objective evaluation criteria for this prediction? I think this is true today.

CM30 6y ago

> • China will successfully assert itself in East Asia, OR force Japan, Taiwan, Phillipines, Vietnam, etc into a strong anti-China alliance. Honestly, I'd probably guess the second one. China is already distrusted by a lot of countries/governments in the region. > Retail shopping almost dies out I don't see this happening to be honest. Online purchases will definitely increase for the foreseeable future, but there are always going to be a decent amount of offline shops and restaurants too, simply because not everyone wants to wait for products, not everyone wants to socialise online and some kinds of products are simply easier/better bought there. It will be interesting to see which types of shops die out though. I doubt supermarkets are going anywhere, but media/entertainment shops like Gamestop/GAME/HMV might as well as start preparing for their inevitable bankruptcy. > Entertainment is mostly online Also question this, though it depends what you mean by online here. Buying a game/movie/TV show/music album/book online and having it delivered then enjoyed offline? Or just digital downloads?

ryandrake 6y ago

I wonder why everyone predicts the world is going to be so radically different in just 20 years? What will drive that, and why hasn't it happened in the last 20 years? Politically, economically, socially, things change very slowly. The status quo is one of the most powerful forces in the world, and it will continue to stay powerful. My prediction for 2040: The world will be pretty close to what it is in 2020, which is also pretty close to what it was in 2000. Really the only major difference between my life now and my life in 2000 is that there are mobile phones all over the place, and people are glued to them.