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Anyone want to make predictions for 2040? Here's a start: Self-driving cars will be the norm. Humans will not be allowed to drive. Extreme weather will make

Anyone want to make predictions for 2040? Here's a start: Self-driving cars will be the norm. Humans will not be allowed to drive. Extreme weather will make many parts of the planet unlivable. Manufacturing will return to America, where robots will do the manufacturing. Universal Basic Income will become a thing. Humans will work fewer hours, fewer humans will work, and fewer workers will work from work. Wealth and power will be concentrated among fewer people. There will be no retail industry. Sports will be the only reason to leave the house.

_bxg1 6y ago
After watching the self-driving car hype crash and burn (so to speak) over the past 5 years, I wouldn't bet on having fully-autonomous vehicles in the next 20. In fact I don't think we'll have them until they no longer have to coexist with human drivers, which could be a chicken-and-egg scenario.
- flowerlad 6y ago
  From Tesla's earnings report: "We enabled stop sign and traffic light recognition and braking for our Early Access Program users at the end of Q1 and to the wider public in April 2020. As we have done with previous releases of major new features, drivers will be required to confirm their attention in order to continue. Once enough real-world data is collected, the system will become more capable and our vehicles will continue driving through intersections without a confirmation." Source: https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795 https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6... Sounds like great progress to me!
  - _bxg1 6y ago
    People have been claiming it's six months away for half a decade. I'll believe it when I see it. One very real effect of all of this research, though, is that if we did end up with an autonomous-only environment (dedicated lanes?), we wouldn't need special infrastructure - as some have suggested in the past - or a new software protocol to get all the different brands to coordinate. Probably even the ones we have today could just follow the normal rules and be sane drivers and would do perfectly. Human drivers are the only problem we can't solve.
    - mrfusion 6y ago
      My town has never fixed a stop sign that’s angled toward the wrong road. Humans just assume it’s for the smaller road. I’m not sure how a self driving car will ever figure it out.
      - flowerlad 6y ago
        People had similar concerns when motorcars first became available. i.e., my horse can jump over obstacles that motorcars never will, and so on. Eventually humans made roads specifically for motorcars.
        _bxg1 6y ago
        That's exactly my point: we'll have self-driving cars when they have their own space. Not before, even given 20 years of progress. Maybe we'll get that dedicated space before then, maybe not. It's a much bigger socioeconomic hurdle and may or may not actually be worth it financially.
        solstice 6y ago
        Maybe there's a partial solution though: drive your car manually to the next onramp from where on it drives automatically until you arrive in the vicinity of your workplace from where on you'll have to drive manually again for a bit. So sort of like the dedicated bus lanes we already have nowadays. If your car doesn't have autopilot, you're not allowed to use them. If your car has autopilot and detects a car without it in front of it, your car falls back to manual mode...
      - mrybczyn 6y ago
        great question - I assume a set of local knowledge will be added by curators or lawsuits over time... Large tech companies have a lot more pull with government than individual drivers, they might even get that stop sign fixed!
      - nicexe 6y ago
        Well, if the roads would be optimized for autonomous cars then any signs on them would be used as a fallback. Autonomous cars would mostly rely on something like road databases, active "stop beacons" or passive "stop markers" (like reading a passive RFID tag)
  - elil17 6y ago
    All of these "self driving cars" come with a big disclaimer: the self-driving functionality is a convenience feature and only intended to be used with close supervision in clear driving conditions. When they work, they're amazing. When they don't, you still need a licensed driver behind the wheel. There's a big gap between the Tesla Autopilot and taxis without a person in them.
  - kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
    They're still using a whitelist of locations where the radar input is ignored. Not exactly confidence inspiring.
  - lm28469 6y ago
    It's like listening to a project manager working on an impossible task telling you "everything is going great" when you ask him about progress but ask for a deadline increase every 6 months. After 3 years it's obvious to everyone that the end goal won't be reached. Looking back at articles from 2014-15-16 truly is magical: "General Motors president Dan Ammann in 2014 said he would be surprised if his company wasn’t shipping self-driving cars by 2020. Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn doubled down on a 2020 dedline this past fall Apple, according to the Wall Street Journal, has set a shipping date of 2019 for its own electric vehicle, though the Journal also reported that the first version of the car might not be driverless. Google’s Sergey Brin gave the most rosy prediction of anyone in 2012, when he suggested: “You can count on one hand the number of years it will take before ordinary people can experience this.” Oh, and a 26-year-old hacker’s startup, Comma.ai, plans to start selling autonomous conversion kits for Honda and Acura vehicles this year." [0] Waymo's CEO recently admitted they will "never" be able to have self driving cars [1], apple still hasn't released anything, GM president must indeed be surprised as he recently stated "Our work is far from done" [2] and Ghosn is an international criminal. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/02/self-driving-car-elon-musk-tech-predictions-tesla-google https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/02/self-driv... [1] https://www.cnet.com/news/alphabet-google-waymo-ceo-john-krafcik-autonomous-cars-wont-ever-be-able-to-drive-in-all-conditions/ https://www.cnet.com/news/alphabet-google-waymo-ceo-john-kra... [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-51171398 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-51171398
gonzo41 6y ago
Electric bicycles will outpace electric car sales as they are cheaper and more accessible for the entire non American world
Natsu 6y ago
You forgot about education falling apart, except perhaps for the Ivy League where it's more about connections than learning. I see the lower ends of education almost completely being disrupted into commodity online learning programs and people abandoning the school systems to get ahead by focusing and learning only what they actually need for certain jobs/careers.
geowwy 6y ago
On the world stage: • America will still be a strong player, but not completely dominant anymore. • China will successfully assert itself in East Asia, OR force Japan, Taiwan, Phillipines, Vietnam, etc into a strong anti-China alliance. • India and Europe will act more and more independently of the US. • Turkey will seek to assert itself in former Ottoman territories, possibly leading to a period of peace in the Middle East if successful. Technologically: • Nothing groundbreaking in computer hardware. • Still no self driving cars or compelling voice interfaces. • Electric cars gain ground, but other forms of electric transportation become wildly popular. • Having a driving license will become less common. Driving may become something left to the professionals, with more stringent tests and requirements. • Meat alternatives become mainstream. People start to look down upon eating real meat. Socially/economically: • Continued urbanisation of the population. • Continued slowing the the birth rate. • Dwelling places keep getting smaller. • Long term monogamous relationships become more uncommon. • Wage stagnation • Retail shopping almost dies out • Entertainment is mostly online Politically: • Prison abolition movement will become stronger. • Primitivist movement will get much bigger. They will seek to return to the country and a more independent, primitive way of life. When laws and social circumstances don't allow this they will turn to terrorism.
- dntbnmpls 6y ago
  > • America will still be a strong player, but not completely dominant anymore. I suspect we'll still be the only dominant global power in 2040. > • China will successfully assert itself in East Asia, OR force Japan, Taiwan, Phillipines, Vietnam, etc into a strong anti-China alliance. The largest trading partner of every nation you listed is China. The idea of an Japan, Tawian, Philippines, Vietnam, etc forming an anti-China alliance is as absurd as mexico and canada forming an anti-US alliance. It makes no economic, political or historical sense. But anything can happen. It's more likely they'll form an anti-US alliance considering Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, etc was invaded by the US at one point or another. But the likelihood of that is 0. > • India and Europe will act more and more independently of the US. India has always acted independently of the US. They were one of the major non-aligned nations during the cold war. > • Turkey will seek to assert itself in former Ottoman territories, possibly leading to a period of peace in the Middle East if successful. What? You think Turkey will be able to push out the US/EU/Russia/etc from the middle east? Even if the US/EU/Russia/etc left, you think Turkey will be able to challenge Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc for dominance in the middle east? I couldn't disagree with you more on the geopolitics. As for your technology predictions, I unfortunately disagree with you on everything. We'll have self-driving cars, there will be groudbreaking developments in computer hardware technology ( quantum computers, VR, GPU, memory, etc ) and real meat consumption will rise as more of the underdeveloped nations get wealthy enough to afford real meat. I have no issues with the rest of your predictions as they seem more likely than your previous predictions.
aphextron 6y ago
>There will be no retail industry. This is a vast overstatement. Drug stores aren't going anywhere. Grocery stores aren't going anywhere. Specialty retailers will always be a thing. When I want to buy a new fishing pole, I'm not reading a bunch of reviews online and going with what sounds right; I'm walking into a Bass Pro Shop and testing out a few dozen of them in my hands. Amazon has done a great job of obliviating the need for big box places like Walmart, but as long as there are humans and teleportation doesn't exist, retail will be a thing. It will simply have to adapt.
- Kiro 6y ago
  You're in minority and won't be enough to sustain retail. It will be gone much sooner than you think.
  - CamperBob2 6y ago
    The grandparent post is probably half right. Drugstores were a terrible example, because they're in the top 10 places many/most shoppers will avoid if possible. ("Yes, I'll be happy to sign all of these forms with the same pen that was just used by someone with the herpes coronavirus flu to sign for their Phenergan prescription.") But a store like Bass Pro Shops or Cabela's is something of a destination attraction in itself. Hunters and outdoor sportspeople will always want a place where they can go and check out the bows/guns/fishing poles/whatever that they plan to order online. Oops, I think I refuted my own argument...
- CamperBob2 6y ago
  Drug stores aren't going anywhere. They already have. We've been getting our prescriptions delivered for months now, even before the COVID-19 outbreak.
  - lm28469 6y ago
    > We've been getting our prescriptions delivered for months now "We" as in who ? I feel like vast majority of the world isn't included your "we"
elil17 6y ago
> Manufacturing will return to America, where robots will do the manufacturing. I think this is a really interesting prediction. As opposed to the 20th century trend of industries centralizing to take advantage of economies of scale, the 21st century may see a trend of industries, enabled by robots capable of manufacturing many different products, decentralizing by manufacturing closer to the point-of-sale. This would be particularly interesting for sectors like clothing, where a small variety of input materials can produce a huge array of output products. Instead of carrying a large stock of clothing in a variety of sizes, each piece could be custom-tailored.
- nicexe 6y ago
  I don't really see this happening. Chinese industry would still be a lot more cheaper both when it comes to needed machinery (like robots) and the cost of the needed space for the factories.
Trasmatta 6y ago
> Sports will be the only reason to leave the house. What does this even mean?
StandardFuture 6y ago
Perhaps, a more productive conversation will be around trying to define a 2040 we want and what it will take to achieve that?
lm28469 6y ago
> Self-driving cars will be the norm. Humans will not be allowed to drive. > Humans will work fewer hours, fewer humans will work, and fewer workers will work from work. I think these two things have been predicted every few years for the last 60 years and we're nowhere close to getting them. I'd say it's even the opposite for working hours, people are working more, paid less and retire later than in the recent past. If you added AI to the list you'd have a wonky predictions bingo. https://www.cnet.com/news/alphabet-google-waymo-ceo-john-krafcik-autonomous-cars-wont-ever-be-able-to-drive-in-all-conditions/ https://www.cnet.com/news/alphabet-google-waymo-ceo-john-kra...

_bxg1 6y ago

After watching the self-driving car hype crash and burn (so to speak) over the past 5 years, I wouldn't bet on having fully-autonomous vehicles in the next 20. In fact I don't think we'll have them until they no longer have to coexist with human drivers, which could be a chicken-and-egg scenario.

flowerlad 6y ago
From Tesla's earnings report: "We enabled stop sign and traffic light recognition and braking for our Early Access Program users at the end of Q1 and to the wider public in April 2020. As we have done with previous releases of major new features, drivers will be required to confirm their attention in order to continue. Once enough real-world data is collected, the system will become more capable and our vehicles will continue driving through intersections without a confirmation." Source: https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795 https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6... Sounds like great progress to me!
- _bxg1 6y ago
  People have been claiming it's six months away for half a decade. I'll believe it when I see it. One very real effect of all of this research, though, is that if we did end up with an autonomous-only environment (dedicated lanes?), we wouldn't need special infrastructure - as some have suggested in the past - or a new software protocol to get all the different brands to coordinate. Probably even the ones we have today could just follow the normal rules and be sane drivers and would do perfectly. Human drivers are the only problem we can't solve.
  - mrfusion 6y ago
    My town has never fixed a stop sign that’s angled toward the wrong road. Humans just assume it’s for the smaller road. I’m not sure how a self driving car will ever figure it out.
    - flowerlad 6y ago
      People had similar concerns when motorcars first became available. i.e., my horse can jump over obstacles that motorcars never will, and so on. Eventually humans made roads specifically for motorcars.
      - _bxg1 6y ago
        That's exactly my point: we'll have self-driving cars when they have their own space. Not before, even given 20 years of progress. Maybe we'll get that dedicated space before then, maybe not. It's a much bigger socioeconomic hurdle and may or may not actually be worth it financially.
        solstice 6y ago
        Maybe there's a partial solution though: drive your car manually to the next onramp from where on it drives automatically until you arrive in the vicinity of your workplace from where on you'll have to drive manually again for a bit. So sort of like the dedicated bus lanes we already have nowadays. If your car doesn't have autopilot, you're not allowed to use them. If your car has autopilot and detects a car without it in front of it, your car falls back to manual mode...
    - mrybczyn 6y ago
      great question - I assume a set of local knowledge will be added by curators or lawsuits over time... Large tech companies have a lot more pull with government than individual drivers, they might even get that stop sign fixed!
    - nicexe 6y ago
      Well, if the roads would be optimized for autonomous cars then any signs on them would be used as a fallback. Autonomous cars would mostly rely on something like road databases, active "stop beacons" or passive "stop markers" (like reading a passive RFID tag)
- elil17 6y ago
  All of these "self driving cars" come with a big disclaimer: the self-driving functionality is a convenience feature and only intended to be used with close supervision in clear driving conditions. When they work, they're amazing. When they don't, you still need a licensed driver behind the wheel. There's a big gap between the Tesla Autopilot and taxis without a person in them.
- kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
  They're still using a whitelist of locations where the radar input is ignored. Not exactly confidence inspiring.
- lm28469 6y ago
  It's like listening to a project manager working on an impossible task telling you "everything is going great" when you ask him about progress but ask for a deadline increase every 6 months. After 3 years it's obvious to everyone that the end goal won't be reached. Looking back at articles from 2014-15-16 truly is magical: "General Motors president Dan Ammann in 2014 said he would be surprised if his company wasn’t shipping self-driving cars by 2020. Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn doubled down on a 2020 dedline this past fall Apple, according to the Wall Street Journal, has set a shipping date of 2019 for its own electric vehicle, though the Journal also reported that the first version of the car might not be driverless. Google’s Sergey Brin gave the most rosy prediction of anyone in 2012, when he suggested: “You can count on one hand the number of years it will take before ordinary people can experience this.” Oh, and a 26-year-old hacker’s startup, Comma.ai, plans to start selling autonomous conversion kits for Honda and Acura vehicles this year." [0] Waymo's CEO recently admitted they will "never" be able to have self driving cars [1], apple still hasn't released anything, GM president must indeed be surprised as he recently stated "Our work is far from done" [2] and Ghosn is an international criminal. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/02/self-driving-car-elon-musk-tech-predictions-tesla-google https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/02/self-driv... [1] https://www.cnet.com/news/alphabet-google-waymo-ceo-john-krafcik-autonomous-cars-wont-ever-be-able-to-drive-in-all-conditions/ https://www.cnet.com/news/alphabet-google-waymo-ceo-john-kra... [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-51171398 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-51171398

gonzo41 6y ago

Electric bicycles will outpace electric car sales as they are cheaper and more accessible for the entire non American world

Natsu 6y ago

You forgot about education falling apart, except perhaps for the Ivy League where it's more about connections than learning. I see the lower ends of education almost completely being disrupted into commodity online learning programs and people abandoning the school systems to get ahead by focusing and learning only what they actually need for certain jobs/careers.

geowwy 6y ago

On the world stage: • America will still be a strong player, but not completely dominant anymore. • China will successfully assert itself in East Asia, OR force Japan, Taiwan, Phillipines, Vietnam, etc into a strong anti-China alliance. • India and Europe will act more and more independently of the US. • Turkey will seek to assert itself in former Ottoman territories, possibly leading to a period of peace in the Middle East if successful. Technologically: • Nothing groundbreaking in computer hardware. • Still no self driving cars or compelling voice interfaces. • Electric cars gain ground, but other forms of electric transportation become wildly popular. • Having a driving license will become less common. Driving may become something left to the professionals, with more stringent tests and requirements. • Meat alternatives become mainstream. People start to look down upon eating real meat. Socially/economically: • Continued urbanisation of the population. • Continued slowing the the birth rate. • Dwelling places keep getting smaller. • Long term monogamous relationships become more uncommon. • Wage stagnation • Retail shopping almost dies out • Entertainment is mostly online Politically: • Prison abolition movement will become stronger. • Primitivist movement will get much bigger. They will seek to return to the country and a more independent, primitive way of life. When laws and social circumstances don't allow this they will turn to terrorism.

dntbnmpls 6y ago
> • America will still be a strong player, but not completely dominant anymore. I suspect we'll still be the only dominant global power in 2040. > • China will successfully assert itself in East Asia, OR force Japan, Taiwan, Phillipines, Vietnam, etc into a strong anti-China alliance. The largest trading partner of every nation you listed is China. The idea of an Japan, Tawian, Philippines, Vietnam, etc forming an anti-China alliance is as absurd as mexico and canada forming an anti-US alliance. It makes no economic, political or historical sense. But anything can happen. It's more likely they'll form an anti-US alliance considering Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, etc was invaded by the US at one point or another. But the likelihood of that is 0. > • India and Europe will act more and more independently of the US. India has always acted independently of the US. They were one of the major non-aligned nations during the cold war. > • Turkey will seek to assert itself in former Ottoman territories, possibly leading to a period of peace in the Middle East if successful. What? You think Turkey will be able to push out the US/EU/Russia/etc from the middle east? Even if the US/EU/Russia/etc left, you think Turkey will be able to challenge Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc for dominance in the middle east? I couldn't disagree with you more on the geopolitics. As for your technology predictions, I unfortunately disagree with you on everything. We'll have self-driving cars, there will be groudbreaking developments in computer hardware technology ( quantum computers, VR, GPU, memory, etc ) and real meat consumption will rise as more of the underdeveloped nations get wealthy enough to afford real meat. I have no issues with the rest of your predictions as they seem more likely than your previous predictions.

aphextron 6y ago

>There will be no retail industry. This is a vast overstatement. Drug stores aren't going anywhere. Grocery stores aren't going anywhere. Specialty retailers will always be a thing. When I want to buy a new fishing pole, I'm not reading a bunch of reviews online and going with what sounds right; I'm walking into a Bass Pro Shop and testing out a few dozen of them in my hands. Amazon has done a great job of obliviating the need for big box places like Walmart, but as long as there are humans and teleportation doesn't exist, retail will be a thing. It will simply have to adapt.

Kiro 6y ago
You're in minority and won't be enough to sustain retail. It will be gone much sooner than you think.
- CamperBob2 6y ago
  The grandparent post is probably half right. Drugstores were a terrible example, because they're in the top 10 places many/most shoppers will avoid if possible. ("Yes, I'll be happy to sign all of these forms with the same pen that was just used by someone with the herpes coronavirus flu to sign for their Phenergan prescription.") But a store like Bass Pro Shops or Cabela's is something of a destination attraction in itself. Hunters and outdoor sportspeople will always want a place where they can go and check out the bows/guns/fishing poles/whatever that they plan to order online. Oops, I think I refuted my own argument...
CamperBob2 6y ago
Drug stores aren't going anywhere. They already have. We've been getting our prescriptions delivered for months now, even before the COVID-19 outbreak.
- lm28469 6y ago
  > We've been getting our prescriptions delivered for months now "We" as in who ? I feel like vast majority of the world isn't included your "we"

elil17 6y ago

> Manufacturing will return to America, where robots will do the manufacturing. I think this is a really interesting prediction. As opposed to the 20th century trend of industries centralizing to take advantage of economies of scale, the 21st century may see a trend of industries, enabled by robots capable of manufacturing many different products, decentralizing by manufacturing closer to the point-of-sale. This would be particularly interesting for sectors like clothing, where a small variety of input materials can produce a huge array of output products. Instead of carrying a large stock of clothing in a variety of sizes, each piece could be custom-tailored.

nicexe 6y ago
I don't really see this happening. Chinese industry would still be a lot more cheaper both when it comes to needed machinery (like robots) and the cost of the needed space for the factories.

Trasmatta 6y ago

> Sports will be the only reason to leave the house. What does this even mean?

StandardFuture 6y ago

Perhaps, a more productive conversation will be around trying to define a 2040 we want and what it will take to achieve that?

lm28469 6y ago

> Self-driving cars will be the norm. Humans will not be allowed to drive. > Humans will work fewer hours, fewer humans will work, and fewer workers will work from work. I think these two things have been predicted every few years for the last 60 years and we're nowhere close to getting them. I'd say it's even the opposite for working hours, people are working more, paid less and retire later than in the recent past. If you added AI to the list you'd have a wonky predictions bingo. https://www.cnet.com/news/alphabet-google-waymo-ceo-john-krafcik-autonomous-cars-wont-ever-be-able-to-drive-in-all-conditions/ https://www.cnet.com/news/alphabet-google-waymo-ceo-john-kra...