7 ms·

The initial 15 min rule (for whether you might get infected from close proximity to someone infected) was based on the idea that offices cycle their volume of a

by dwd 6y ago

The initial 15 min rule (for whether you might get infected from close proximity to someone infected) was based on the idea that offices cycle their volume of air every 10 minutes, but casinos that allowing smoking may cycle their air more often. This was often cited as a reason why everyone on a flight won't catch it, just those in nearby rows. Vegas also doesn't have a subway system, which was cited as why it spread so rapidly in NY.

astrange 6y ago
Many places that are doing well (esp in Asia) have more extensive subway systems than NYC. However the people there might be more hygienic, or maybe the operators are cleaning more often.
- rosywoozlechan 6y ago
  Or wear masks.
- rwallace 6y ago
  I've seen it plausibly argued that in e.g. Japan, they have a culture of not talking on your phone on the subway, and this substantially reduces transmission.
  - nl 6y ago
    This is true - not only do they have a culture of that, they have signs up telling people not to talk on their phones and to be quiet.
    - keithnoizu 6y ago
      And angry elders who will glare at you violently if you don't adhere to the rule.
  - iso947 6y ago
    London just the same https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/sep/29/tube-chat-campaign-provokes-horror-among-london-commuters https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/sep/29/tube-chat-ca...
- fiblye 6y ago
  I think one thing is NY is testing like crazy. They're actually trying to find out just how many people are infected. Some countries are still trying to avoid testing. Many Japanese hospitals are turning people away from testing unless they have severe symptoms lasting several days, so naturally, numbers look tiny. And let's be frank, China's numbers just shouldn't be believed.
  - iso947 6y ago
    You can’t hide excess deaths, at least in the developed world. Japan has not had 20,000 deaths.
    - thu2111 6y ago
      Japan's population is lower than the USA. You're comparing absolute numbers when what you want is per million. The US doesn't have high quality national excess death data, apparently. That's surprising. Part of the distorted response to this outbreak is because most countries only seem to publish relatively recent excess death data - often only a few years. But when longer term data is examined it shows that there have been plenty of flu seasons with similar death rates. That's why people keep comparing it to the flu. At a national level the peak in the USA was at 20,000 excess deaths. In 2017 the peak was at about 7,000 (https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/cdc-releases-detailed-national-excess-death-data https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/cdc-releases-detailed-nat...) So it must be much worse, right? Well, not really. If you look at the longer term data for a hard-hit country like the UK, where there are a lot of lockdown-created excess deaths due to excessively underloading the hospitals: http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/ http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/ You can see that this outbreak had at the end of April an almost identical number of excess deaths so far this year to 2017, 1999 (which was worse), 1998, 1996 and 1995. It seems flu care might have got better over time, or perhaps vaccinations had the impact. But so far the impact on COVID on the UK is not much different to disease outbreaks throughout the 1990s. The UK stats will go up and it'll be worse than any other outbreak for sure, because at this point the population is in a state of fear and avoiding hospitals - even if they don't want to, critical treatments for other diseases have been cancelled to free up space for a surge that never came. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/27/care-homes-see-rise-deaths-not-linked-coronavirus-hospitals/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/27/care-homes-see-r... "UK's biggest provider says deaths among residents at three times last year's rate, but only half of additional deaths linked to virus" And this is with almost any death being ascribed to COVID, without requiring tests or evidence. The lockdown will claim more lives than COVID will.
- freepor 6y ago
  You cannot compare situations in the US to situations in Asia since the populations are so different. In Asian countries people wear masks regularly... in the US the Vice President considered it too emasculating even for a HOSPITAL visit. There are plenty of good things about Americans but some of their worst qualities are a perfect match for disease transmission.
- usrusr 6y ago
  The NYC subway seems to have a pretty unique local microclimate though. I don't know if it's just the lack of regenerative braking or if the close proximity to the iconic steam heating network is also playing a role in this, but compared to most other subway networks, the MTA feels like a living history museum - even if you close your eyes, block your ears and only take in the air. The influence of air heat and moisture on virus spread is quite complicated (evaporation ends some droplet classes, condensation ends others) so it's quite possible that some subway systems are much worse spreaders than others.
- dwd 6y ago
  The vast majority wear masks and the operators wear gloves - and this is when there's not an active epidemic. You get the impression that a lot of people in Western society would rather risk infection than be seen wearing a mask - defies logic.
jcranmer 6y ago
> Vegas also doesn't have a subway system, which was cited as why it spread so rapidly in NY. There's no real evidence to support the thesis that the MTA was a primary vector of spread in NYC. Granular data of infection rate by neighborhood is spotty, but the data that does exist doesn't show any clear trends towards increased infection rates nearer subway lines. And the borough with the highest infection rate is the borough with the least transit ridership, and the borough with the lowest infection rate is that with the highest transit ridership... (Source cite: https://pedestrianobservations.com/2020/04/15/the-subway-is-probably-not-why-new-york-is-a-disaster-zone/ https://pedestrianobservations.com/2020/04/15/the-subway-is-...).
- cameldrv 6y ago
  I think it’s pretty clear that having a large portion of the city spend an hour a day packed together with 80 or so other people is going to increase transmission from a droplet spread disease.
  - jgwil2 6y ago
    Interesting hypothesis. We should sill look at the evidence before stating it as fact.
    - cameldrv 6y ago
      In Wuhan, 11% of traced contacts came back to transport. One thing that might help would be to open the windows in the subway cars.
  - jcranmer 6y ago
    As opposed to people living packed together in dense apartment blocks? Or working in crowded office blocks? Or spending leisure time in crowded recreational facilities? Or shopping in crowded stories? Or eating in crowded restaurants? Yes, subways are crowded, but so is everything else in NYC. As for why NYC is doing much worse than other comparably dense cities worldwide, my thesis is that it's a failure at all levels of civic participation (federal, state, local, and even residential and commercial proprietors) to be proactive in counteracting the spread of coronavirus.
noobermin 6y ago
On the one hand you say it won't spread in airplanes but will spread on a train, literally contradicting the sense between those two sentences.
- andbberger 6y ago
  Not a contradiction as it is not a direct comparison. Planes have substantially greater ventilation then trains on average.
  - bitexploder 6y ago
    They also have HEPA filters, etc.
raverbashing 6y ago
Or maybe because Vegas isn't Vegas (I mean this - https://www.reviewjournal.com/uncategorized/knowing-vegas-why-isnt-the-strip-in-las-vegas/ https://www.reviewjournal.com/uncategorized/knowing-vegas-wh... ) and most of the participants came from abroad or other cities in the US. So if people got contaminated there, in a couple of days they probably were somewhere else already.
- gonzo 6y ago
  Born n raised in Vegas. It’s a technical distinction that most locals don’t understand or care about.
  - raverbashing 6y ago
    I agree, but do Vegas COVID statistics mean cases only in Vegas or the adjacent cities? As a similar example, a lot of people in NJ work in NY but a case on a NJ resident would be counted as NJ.
- lurquer 6y ago
  So, what happens in Vegas doesn't stay in Vegas.

by dwd 6y ago

astrange 6y ago

Many places that are doing well (esp in Asia) have more extensive subway systems than NYC. However the people there might be more hygienic, or maybe the operators are cleaning more often.

rosywoozlechan 6y ago
Or wear masks.
rwallace 6y ago
I've seen it plausibly argued that in e.g. Japan, they have a culture of not talking on your phone on the subway, and this substantially reduces transmission.
- nl 6y ago
  This is true - not only do they have a culture of that, they have signs up telling people not to talk on their phones and to be quiet.
  - keithnoizu 6y ago
    And angry elders who will glare at you violently if you don't adhere to the rule.
- iso947 6y ago
  London just the same https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/sep/29/tube-chat-campaign-provokes-horror-among-london-commuters https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/sep/29/tube-chat-ca...
fiblye 6y ago
I think one thing is NY is testing like crazy. They're actually trying to find out just how many people are infected. Some countries are still trying to avoid testing. Many Japanese hospitals are turning people away from testing unless they have severe symptoms lasting several days, so naturally, numbers look tiny. And let's be frank, China's numbers just shouldn't be believed.
- iso947 6y ago
  You can’t hide excess deaths, at least in the developed world. Japan has not had 20,000 deaths.
  - thu2111 6y ago
    Japan's population is lower than the USA. You're comparing absolute numbers when what you want is per million. The US doesn't have high quality national excess death data, apparently. That's surprising. Part of the distorted response to this outbreak is because most countries only seem to publish relatively recent excess death data - often only a few years. But when longer term data is examined it shows that there have been plenty of flu seasons with similar death rates. That's why people keep comparing it to the flu. At a national level the peak in the USA was at 20,000 excess deaths. In 2017 the peak was at about 7,000 (https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/cdc-releases-detailed-national-excess-death-data https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/cdc-releases-detailed-nat...) So it must be much worse, right? Well, not really. If you look at the longer term data for a hard-hit country like the UK, where there are a lot of lockdown-created excess deaths due to excessively underloading the hospitals: http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/ http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/ You can see that this outbreak had at the end of April an almost identical number of excess deaths so far this year to 2017, 1999 (which was worse), 1998, 1996 and 1995. It seems flu care might have got better over time, or perhaps vaccinations had the impact. But so far the impact on COVID on the UK is not much different to disease outbreaks throughout the 1990s. The UK stats will go up and it'll be worse than any other outbreak for sure, because at this point the population is in a state of fear and avoiding hospitals - even if they don't want to, critical treatments for other diseases have been cancelled to free up space for a surge that never came. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/27/care-homes-see-rise-deaths-not-linked-coronavirus-hospitals/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/27/care-homes-see-r... "UK's biggest provider says deaths among residents at three times last year's rate, but only half of additional deaths linked to virus" And this is with almost any death being ascribed to COVID, without requiring tests or evidence. The lockdown will claim more lives than COVID will.
freepor 6y ago
You cannot compare situations in the US to situations in Asia since the populations are so different. In Asian countries people wear masks regularly... in the US the Vice President considered it too emasculating even for a HOSPITAL visit. There are plenty of good things about Americans but some of their worst qualities are a perfect match for disease transmission.
usrusr 6y ago
The NYC subway seems to have a pretty unique local microclimate though. I don't know if it's just the lack of regenerative braking or if the close proximity to the iconic steam heating network is also playing a role in this, but compared to most other subway networks, the MTA feels like a living history museum - even if you close your eyes, block your ears and only take in the air. The influence of air heat and moisture on virus spread is quite complicated (evaporation ends some droplet classes, condensation ends others) so it's quite possible that some subway systems are much worse spreaders than others.
dwd 6y ago
The vast majority wear masks and the operators wear gloves - and this is when there's not an active epidemic. You get the impression that a lot of people in Western society would rather risk infection than be seen wearing a mask - defies logic.

jcranmer 6y ago

> Vegas also doesn't have a subway system, which was cited as why it spread so rapidly in NY. There's no real evidence to support the thesis that the MTA was a primary vector of spread in NYC. Granular data of infection rate by neighborhood is spotty, but the data that does exist doesn't show any clear trends towards increased infection rates nearer subway lines. And the borough with the highest infection rate is the borough with the least transit ridership, and the borough with the lowest infection rate is that with the highest transit ridership... (Source cite: https://pedestrianobservations.com/2020/04/15/the-subway-is-probably-not-why-new-york-is-a-disaster-zone/ https://pedestrianobservations.com/2020/04/15/the-subway-is-...).

cameldrv 6y ago
I think it’s pretty clear that having a large portion of the city spend an hour a day packed together with 80 or so other people is going to increase transmission from a droplet spread disease.
- jgwil2 6y ago
  Interesting hypothesis. We should sill look at the evidence before stating it as fact.
  - cameldrv 6y ago
    In Wuhan, 11% of traced contacts came back to transport. One thing that might help would be to open the windows in the subway cars.
- jcranmer 6y ago
  As opposed to people living packed together in dense apartment blocks? Or working in crowded office blocks? Or spending leisure time in crowded recreational facilities? Or shopping in crowded stories? Or eating in crowded restaurants? Yes, subways are crowded, but so is everything else in NYC. As for why NYC is doing much worse than other comparably dense cities worldwide, my thesis is that it's a failure at all levels of civic participation (federal, state, local, and even residential and commercial proprietors) to be proactive in counteracting the spread of coronavirus.

noobermin 6y ago

On the one hand you say it won't spread in airplanes but will spread on a train, literally contradicting the sense between those two sentences.

andbberger 6y ago
Not a contradiction as it is not a direct comparison. Planes have substantially greater ventilation then trains on average.
- bitexploder 6y ago
  They also have HEPA filters, etc.

raverbashing 6y ago

Or maybe because Vegas isn't Vegas (I mean this - https://www.reviewjournal.com/uncategorized/knowing-vegas-why-isnt-the-strip-in-las-vegas/ https://www.reviewjournal.com/uncategorized/knowing-vegas-wh... ) and most of the participants came from abroad or other cities in the US. So if people got contaminated there, in a couple of days they probably were somewhere else already.

gonzo 6y ago
Born n raised in Vegas. It’s a technical distinction that most locals don’t understand or care about.
- raverbashing 6y ago
  I agree, but do Vegas COVID statistics mean cases only in Vegas or the adjacent cities? As a similar example, a lot of people in NJ work in NY but a case on a NJ resident would be counted as NJ.
lurquer 6y ago
So, what happens in Vegas doesn't stay in Vegas.