4 ms·

New York seems to have a reasonable plan. Hospitalization rate is under control, careful planning is going into how to reopen the state in a tiered way, etc.

taeric 6y ago
What are they doing to keep it out of the rest of their long term care facilities? Note that they have over a million people over sixty. And if you redo their numbers assuming the CFR is roughly known in the different age brackets, things could get much much worse. (That is, the CFR in WA is in very low numbers holistically. For the sixty plus? It is over 15%!!) So, unless they have something protecting them, just reopening slowly didn't really have a mechanism to protect them. Now, they could go for herd immunity in care workers. Rotate in those with antibodies, and you are simulations how we protect the elderly from the flu. But just slowly reopening? What is the mechanism that is expecting a change?
- JshWright 6y ago
  It's not just "slowly reopening". The reopening is predicated on testing capacity, as well as the ability to adequately track and trace.
  - taeric 6y ago
    That just detects if it flares back, right? What is being done to keep it from the ltc facilities? This is like watching for a spark in a firework store, while you start letting active smokers back in...
    - JshWright 6y ago
      Yes, the point is to detect hotspots early and effectively isolate them.
      - Gibbon1 6y ago
        It's going to be interesting to see how the mix of competence and luck plays out over the next nine months. Evil dictator idea. App on peoples smartphones that collects the number of unique close contacts and rebroadcasts that. So then people get warned that someones a risk.
      - taeric 6y ago
        But how are we going to effectively isolate people? More, if it is in a young community, do we care? That is, we do not have data showing this is deadly for pretty much why identifiable group, other than elderly. Such that no matter where a flare up is, we need to isolate the elderly. My fireworks quip was that if a spark gets in there, the whole thing blows. But, large parts of the city could likely take a flare up and not notice. That is, the whole city is not a firework store. Right?

taeric 6y ago

What are they doing to keep it out of the rest of their long term care facilities? Note that they have over a million people over sixty. And if you redo their numbers assuming the CFR is roughly known in the different age brackets, things could get much much worse. (That is, the CFR in WA is in very low numbers holistically. For the sixty plus? It is over 15%!!) So, unless they have something protecting them, just reopening slowly didn't really have a mechanism to protect them. Now, they could go for herd immunity in care workers. Rotate in those with antibodies, and you are simulations how we protect the elderly from the flu. But just slowly reopening? What is the mechanism that is expecting a change?

JshWright 6y ago
It's not just "slowly reopening". The reopening is predicated on testing capacity, as well as the ability to adequately track and trace.
- taeric 6y ago
  That just detects if it flares back, right? What is being done to keep it from the ltc facilities? This is like watching for a spark in a firework store, while you start letting active smokers back in...
  - JshWright 6y ago
    Yes, the point is to detect hotspots early and effectively isolate them.
    - Gibbon1 6y ago
      It's going to be interesting to see how the mix of competence and luck plays out over the next nine months. Evil dictator idea. App on peoples smartphones that collects the number of unique close contacts and rebroadcasts that. So then people get warned that someones a risk.
    - taeric 6y ago
      But how are we going to effectively isolate people? More, if it is in a young community, do we care? That is, we do not have data showing this is deadly for pretty much why identifiable group, other than elderly. Such that no matter where a flare up is, we need to isolate the elderly. My fireworks quip was that if a spark gets in there, the whole thing blows. But, large parts of the city could likely take a flare up and not notice. That is, the whole city is not a firework store. Right?