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You're not insane, but you need to take into account that the CFR would be higher if the healthcare system were overwhelmed with patients. Also reducing death i

You're not insane, but you need to take into account that the CFR would be higher if the healthcare system were overwhelmed with patients. Also reducing death is not the only target, we are reasonably sure that many patients will have long-lasting damage to their lungs. There is of course some trade off between number of deaths avoided and amount of money we should be prepared to throw at the problem. Where on this spectrum are you?

taeric 6y ago
I'm on a different angle, I think. My specific point is that people need to stop looking at a single IFR/CFR stat. It does no good. We look to be getting safer numbers there by simply increasing testing. (Of note, NYC has a strict lower bound on its numbers with how many in its population has died. But, do note they have more people over sixty than most cities do people. Such that most places will not be comparable.) And that is the problem. The virus has not gotten safer as we get more data. Our understanding is just not focusing on helping the elderly. We seem to be taking a crap shot that everyone can stay home and we can out sit the virus. I would wager we could have setup hotels and strict access controls on supplies into and out of at risk communities cheaper than what we have done. Certainly if you count on all of the job loss.
djsumdog 6y ago
> you need to take into account that the CFR would be higher if the healthcare system were overwhelmed with patients This is the narrative we keep getting fed over and over again, but it doesn't seem to be working out. There are a lot of people who were afraid to go to doctors for minor issues, a lot of important surgeries canceled for being elective, etc. On top of that, 80% of people who need a ventilator who are older or have other health issues, will die on them[0]. For the younger patients, it's almost a coin toss. Some hospital systems are overwhelmed, but some are totally empty. Treating a region as large as the US as one unified geographical region, even with our unrestricted travel, didn't seem sound. The devastation to peoples jobs, lives, savings, homes .. everything ... we keep saying Lives > Economy, but unless our leaders address how to deal with reconstruction (no one seems to be talking about this), there could be a lot of consequences worse than covid down the line. 0: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200422/most-covid-19-patients-placed-on-ventilators-died-new-york-study-shows#1 https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200422/most-covid-19-patie...

taeric 6y ago

I'm on a different angle, I think. My specific point is that people need to stop looking at a single IFR/CFR stat. It does no good. We look to be getting safer numbers there by simply increasing testing. (Of note, NYC has a strict lower bound on its numbers with how many in its population has died. But, do note they have more people over sixty than most cities do people. Such that most places will not be comparable.) And that is the problem. The virus has not gotten safer as we get more data. Our understanding is just not focusing on helping the elderly. We seem to be taking a crap shot that everyone can stay home and we can out sit the virus. I would wager we could have setup hotels and strict access controls on supplies into and out of at risk communities cheaper than what we have done. Certainly if you count on all of the job loss.

djsumdog 6y ago

> you need to take into account that the CFR would be higher if the healthcare system were overwhelmed with patients This is the narrative we keep getting fed over and over again, but it doesn't seem to be working out. There are a lot of people who were afraid to go to doctors for minor issues, a lot of important surgeries canceled for being elective, etc. On top of that, 80% of people who need a ventilator who are older or have other health issues, will die on them[0]. For the younger patients, it's almost a coin toss. Some hospital systems are overwhelmed, but some are totally empty. Treating a region as large as the US as one unified geographical region, even with our unrestricted travel, didn't seem sound. The devastation to peoples jobs, lives, savings, homes .. everything ... we keep saying Lives > Economy, but unless our leaders address how to deal with reconstruction (no one seems to be talking about this), there could be a lot of consequences worse than covid down the line. 0: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200422/most-covid-19-patients-placed-on-ventilators-died-new-york-study-shows#1 https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200422/most-covid-19-patie...