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> The Starship is NASA’s “ace in the hole” for landing people on the moon by 2024 because in its original configuration it needs neither the Orion nor the Space

> The Starship is NASA’s “ace in the hole” for landing people on the moon by 2024 because in its original configuration it needs neither the Orion nor the Space Launch System to take people and cargo to and from the lunar surface. The SLS situation is starting to get more and more awkward. The Falcon Heavy already has a lift capability that's about 2/3 of the SLS's Block 1 lift capability, and it's a real, flying rocket that is about an order of magnitude cheaper. And that's if it's flown expendable. If Starship starts flying then NASA will be pouring money into developing a booster that is worse in every way. They made a bit of a gesture towards "let's use Orion but forget about the booster for a while" [1], but then they realized they can't dock the Orion to a Falcon Heavy. So now, all 3 of the contracts they've selected for getting to the moon [2] are without SLS at all. Everyone knew SLS was more about jobs than it was about building a good rocket, and now it's becoming glaringly obvious. If SpaceX gets Starship flying I think we'll see SLS outright cancelled. 1. https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/03/what-is-going-on-with-nasas-space-launch-system-rocket/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/03/what-is-going-on-wit... 2. https://arstechnica.com/?p=1672180 https://arstechnica.com/?p=1672180

kirrent 6y ago
It's hard to work out the actual cost of each SLS. Especially when you're trying to take development costs into account. The lowest sensible estimate I've seen is $3 billion, but if you amortise development costs over ten launches it could be higher than $5 billion a launch. A Falcon Heavy in expendable mode can be had for $150 million, and NASA paid no development costs. So, between 20 and 35ish times more expensive (assuming nothing much more goes wrong for SLS), and Falcon Heavy is already flying.
- mr_toad 6y ago
  Just one of the engines costs almost as much as a Falcon Heavy launch. https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/nasa-will-pay-a-staggering-146-million-for-each-sls-rocket-engine/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/nasa-will-pay-a-stag...
Melting_Harps 6y ago
> If SpaceX gets Starship flying I think we'll see SLS outright cancelled. One can only hope, I really wished Bezos had stepped up and fulfilled his promises/potential, but that's what you get when you confide in a guy that, consciously or not, looks and behaves more and more like Lex Luthor by the hour. I personally think any Lunar expeditions are a waste of time and nothing more than geo-politics harking back to the Cold War, this time with China, and will do more create division amongst Space exploration than cohesion. But it seems NASA is resolved to do it, so its being funded and several contractors have submitted their designs [1]. If they landed tomorrow on the moon I still would think Starlink delivering on its promise and SN4/SN5 doing a launch test would still be more impressive as its success can aid to unify a fragmented Species--polarized by petty distractions and affairs that mainly try to give credence to prolonging the Nation-State model. I'm entirely indifferent to the Moon as a habitat/colony for Humans, and aghast at the idea of a Lunar Gateway; then again that is the SLS project model that has prevailed. 1: https://spacenews.com/nasa-evaluation-sees-spacex-lunar-lander-as-innovative-but-risky/ https://spacenews.com/nasa-evaluation-sees-spacex-lunar-land...
- yetihehe 6y ago
  > as its success can aid to unify a fragmented Species--polarized by petty distractions and affairs I don't think just giving more people access to internet will be enough to unify fragmented species. Better ways of educating people will help, but just giving them access to information is like giving mosquito nets to impoverished people, they use it for fishing and pollute water with anti-mosquito compounds which breeds more resistant mosquitoes and make fish scarce. Just look at anti-vaxers and 5G conspirationists. They have access to all the information they want.
  - Melting_Harps 6y ago
    I think I can break down your post into individual arguments, but just know I don't entirely disagree with your assessment, its just that I think your conclusion is far too pessimistic. > I don't think just giving more people access to internet will be enough to unify fragmented species. Economic inclusion is the reason I believe it has the greatest potential, primarily on-boarding those that have been excluded from the current economic system. Read this [1] and tell me you don't see the downside to marginalizing such a large segment of the World's population and their Human Capital and how the rest of the World suffers as a result. Education via MOOCs and other online avenues is what scales the most, thus having Educational resources available to them is critical, and for that you will need, among other things, Global connectivity. Its sobering to think that because of China's soft-power Imperialism certain parts of Africa have greater access to 4g than they do running water is a reality, but this has to be accepted and it can serve as a foundation to build better standards of living and Education alike. Simply dumping equipment is not sufficient, nor is a blank check from NGOs I agree; luckily the West has a long History of having people who will put themselves in harm's way (Doctors without borders) to help those less fortunate that can act as leaders to teach them how to replicate these models and build their own infrastructure to suit their environment and address the problems they encounter. Justin Wren's work [2] is an awesome example, albeit perilous in its own way, of what can happen when this pans out. > Just look at anti-vaxers and 5G conspirationists. They have access to all the information they want. I agree this an a-symmetric battle, and they seem to be hyper-focused on specious and superfluous positions, based on outright fallacious arguments to justify their positions, but ultimately I'd rather have them able to make that choice than to rob them of their agency if given a choice. 5g conspiracies are insipid, however, I believe anti-vax'ing parents should be liable for any damages or costs associated to exposing their children and anyone else they infect in arbitration that extends to punitive and well as financial damages. The court system may currently be 'responsible' for that role in Society, but I'm not averse to exploring other ideas that can be mediated. 1: https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/28/the-shadow-superpower/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/28/the-shadow-superpower/ 2: https://fightfortheforgotten.org/ https://fightfortheforgotten.org/
mschuster91 6y ago
> If SpaceX gets Starship flying I think we'll see SLS outright cancelled Doubt it. The US government won't dump SLS and the jobs that come with it, and probably the military/NASA will veto relying on a company that Elon Musk can send tanking with a simple stupid tweet.

kirrent 6y ago

It's hard to work out the actual cost of each SLS. Especially when you're trying to take development costs into account. The lowest sensible estimate I've seen is $3 billion, but if you amortise development costs over ten launches it could be higher than $5 billion a launch. A Falcon Heavy in expendable mode can be had for $150 million, and NASA paid no development costs. So, between 20 and 35ish times more expensive (assuming nothing much more goes wrong for SLS), and Falcon Heavy is already flying.

mr_toad 6y ago
Just one of the engines costs almost as much as a Falcon Heavy launch. https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/nasa-will-pay-a-staggering-146-million-for-each-sls-rocket-engine/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/nasa-will-pay-a-stag...

Melting_Harps 6y ago

> If SpaceX gets Starship flying I think we'll see SLS outright cancelled. One can only hope, I really wished Bezos had stepped up and fulfilled his promises/potential, but that's what you get when you confide in a guy that, consciously or not, looks and behaves more and more like Lex Luthor by the hour. I personally think any Lunar expeditions are a waste of time and nothing more than geo-politics harking back to the Cold War, this time with China, and will do more create division amongst Space exploration than cohesion. But it seems NASA is resolved to do it, so its being funded and several contractors have submitted their designs [1]. If they landed tomorrow on the moon I still would think Starlink delivering on its promise and SN4/SN5 doing a launch test would still be more impressive as its success can aid to unify a fragmented Species--polarized by petty distractions and affairs that mainly try to give credence to prolonging the Nation-State model. I'm entirely indifferent to the Moon as a habitat/colony for Humans, and aghast at the idea of a Lunar Gateway; then again that is the SLS project model that has prevailed. 1: https://spacenews.com/nasa-evaluation-sees-spacex-lunar-lander-as-innovative-but-risky/ https://spacenews.com/nasa-evaluation-sees-spacex-lunar-land...

yetihehe 6y ago
> as its success can aid to unify a fragmented Species--polarized by petty distractions and affairs I don't think just giving more people access to internet will be enough to unify fragmented species. Better ways of educating people will help, but just giving them access to information is like giving mosquito nets to impoverished people, they use it for fishing and pollute water with anti-mosquito compounds which breeds more resistant mosquitoes and make fish scarce. Just look at anti-vaxers and 5G conspirationists. They have access to all the information they want.
- Melting_Harps 6y ago
  I think I can break down your post into individual arguments, but just know I don't entirely disagree with your assessment, its just that I think your conclusion is far too pessimistic. > I don't think just giving more people access to internet will be enough to unify fragmented species. Economic inclusion is the reason I believe it has the greatest potential, primarily on-boarding those that have been excluded from the current economic system. Read this [1] and tell me you don't see the downside to marginalizing such a large segment of the World's population and their Human Capital and how the rest of the World suffers as a result. Education via MOOCs and other online avenues is what scales the most, thus having Educational resources available to them is critical, and for that you will need, among other things, Global connectivity. Its sobering to think that because of China's soft-power Imperialism certain parts of Africa have greater access to 4g than they do running water is a reality, but this has to be accepted and it can serve as a foundation to build better standards of living and Education alike. Simply dumping equipment is not sufficient, nor is a blank check from NGOs I agree; luckily the West has a long History of having people who will put themselves in harm's way (Doctors without borders) to help those less fortunate that can act as leaders to teach them how to replicate these models and build their own infrastructure to suit their environment and address the problems they encounter. Justin Wren's work [2] is an awesome example, albeit perilous in its own way, of what can happen when this pans out. > Just look at anti-vaxers and 5G conspirationists. They have access to all the information they want. I agree this an a-symmetric battle, and they seem to be hyper-focused on specious and superfluous positions, based on outright fallacious arguments to justify their positions, but ultimately I'd rather have them able to make that choice than to rob them of their agency if given a choice. 5g conspiracies are insipid, however, I believe anti-vax'ing parents should be liable for any damages or costs associated to exposing their children and anyone else they infect in arbitration that extends to punitive and well as financial damages. The court system may currently be 'responsible' for that role in Society, but I'm not averse to exploring other ideas that can be mediated. 1: https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/28/the-shadow-superpower/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/28/the-shadow-superpower/ 2: https://fightfortheforgotten.org/ https://fightfortheforgotten.org/

mschuster91 6y ago

> If SpaceX gets Starship flying I think we'll see SLS outright cancelled Doubt it. The US government won't dump SLS and the jobs that come with it, and probably the military/NASA will veto relying on a company that Elon Musk can send tanking with a simple stupid tweet.