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I struggle with similar questions. Probably we'll never know. As of your first point, there may be another natural virus, as of yet unidentified, possibly carr

by pacala 6y ago

I struggle with similar questions. Probably we'll never know. As of your first point, there may be another natural virus, as of yet unidentified, possibly carried by a different species, that brought the disease to Wuhan. From the virologist chatter I hear, the genetic difference between RaTG13 is too large to have RaTG13 a recent direct precursor of SARS-CoV-2, either through genetic manipulation, or via culturing. Alternatively, everything that came out of China since Jan 2020 is pure BS. As of yet, there is no independent verification of the origin of RaTG13, which conveniently was found 'lying around in a freezer' in Jan 2020, stored there all the way back in 2013. Nor there is independent verification of the genomic sequences of all the other viruses that are 'lying around in a freezer'. Nor are the Chinese authorities very open to international collaboration on this matter. The sharp politicization of this issue is worrisome in itself.

DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
RaTG13 wasn't exactly "lying around." The Wuhan Institute of Virology searches out and catalogs bat coronaviruses. They have a "library" of a few hundred frozen viruses. Most of them probably receive very little in-depth study after initial categorization. > Nor are the Chinese authorities very open to international collaboration on this matter. The Wuhan Institute of Virology actually engages in a large amount of international collaboration. The international collaborators of the WIV (among them are some of the most prominent coronavirus and emerging infectious diseases researchers), in the United States and elsewhere, have been defending the institute against the various conspiracy theories circulating online (and being promoted by the US President). The researchers at the WIV receive training at national labs in the US, France and Australia. In other words, the WIV is tightly hooked into the international research community. It's not some secretive place that the outside world can't peer into. > possibly carried by a different species, that brought the disease to Wuhan SARS and MERS were both transmitted to humans through an intermediate host species. It's reasonable to believe that SARS-CoV-2 also went through an intermediate host. It's also not certain that the initial spillover occurred in Wuhan. It could easily have begun in the countryside and only blown up when someone brought it to Wuhan, which is a major transportation hub.

by pacala 6y ago

DiogenesKynikos 6y ago

RaTG13 wasn't exactly "lying around." The Wuhan Institute of Virology searches out and catalogs bat coronaviruses. They have a "library" of a few hundred frozen viruses. Most of them probably receive very little in-depth study after initial categorization. > Nor are the Chinese authorities very open to international collaboration on this matter. The Wuhan Institute of Virology actually engages in a large amount of international collaboration. The international collaborators of the WIV (among them are some of the most prominent coronavirus and emerging infectious diseases researchers), in the United States and elsewhere, have been defending the institute against the various conspiracy theories circulating online (and being promoted by the US President). The researchers at the WIV receive training at national labs in the US, France and Australia. In other words, the WIV is tightly hooked into the international research community. It's not some secretive place that the outside world can't peer into. > possibly carried by a different species, that brought the disease to Wuhan SARS and MERS were both transmitted to humans through an intermediate host species. It's reasonable to believe that SARS-CoV-2 also went through an intermediate host. It's also not certain that the initial spillover occurred in Wuhan. It could easily have begun in the countryside and only blown up when someone brought it to Wuhan, which is a major transportation hub.