You are arguing a different point than the original comment I was replying to, however. The original argument was that even with only a 0.3% probability of bein

You are arguing a different point than the original comment I was replying to, however. The original argument was that even with only a 0.3% probability of being coincidental, you would still expect to find one episode out of the entire run where it occurs. This is true. However, that doesn't make it likely that this episode is the one. If they had trawled the whole series looking for weirdness, and picked out the one episode with weirdness, that would be a major issue. They didn't do that. They picked this specific episode for a different reason (that I am still not completely clear on). The analysis shows that the coughing pattern was extremely unlikely to be coincidental. You are correct that doesn't necessarily mean cheating, but it is an interesting result that shouldn't simply be dismissed with hand wavy statistical arguments. The correct follow-up is as mentioned in the article. If the nervous coughing explanation is correct (for example) then most episodes should show a similar pattern which would undermine the conviction.