18 ms·

That isn’t actually true. Induced current will occur in nearly any conductor, and the biggest risk all over the world is in the loss of high voltage transformer

That isn’t actually true. Induced current will occur in nearly any conductor, and the biggest risk all over the world is in the loss of high voltage transformers. This is absolutely, 100% a big problem. While these FOIA’d FEMA docs [0] are just one source, searching for “solar flare blackout” will net you all the sources you need. It’s the same as a nuclear EMP. [0] (PDF): http://www.governmentattic.org/24docs/UnpubFEMAgeomagRpts_2010.pdf http://www.governmentattic.org/24docs/UnpubFEMAgeomagRpts_20...

throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
The stuff about blowing the transformers is exactly what I've heard too. If there are any EE who'd care to comment, I'd be curious to know if the level of power that starts flowing through HV cables could damage or destroy them. As I've not heard this I assume not (one bit of good news) but I'd like to know.
- geomagthrowaway 6y ago
  The problem is not directly with the wires, its the addition of the quasi-DC induced currents in an AC transformer. Even the addition of a small DC current can lead to unwanted harmonics or in extreme cases spot heating (this is what you think of when people say 'knocking out a transformer'). If you want a very in-depth review: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001501 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001501
  - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
    Well over my head but printed it out and will read anyway. Thank you.
Retric 6y ago
Electrical cables are untwisted, but they are also designed to handle a lot of current so the overwhelming majority would be fine. Unfortunately, ultra long distance power transmission cables are the exception. The long term damage from that is significantly less than assumed. Yes, making ultra efficient transformers designed to last decades is extremely time consuming, but building something less efficient in under a week is also possible. There would likely be various electrical issues until they where replaced, but that’s vastly better than societal collapse.
- spdustin 6y ago
  I do not believe the international supply chain is sufficient to replace any at-risk high-voltage transformers that are destroyed by an electromagnetic pulse. There is a considerable body of research around this topic.
  - Retric 6y ago
    This is not a question of 1:1 replacement via the existing supply chain. This is using a 1920’s solution that gets us 80% of normal not the much better but more difficult 2020’s solution to the same problems. Consider, a modern ship’s propeller is an marvel of modern engineering that would be extremely difficult to replace with something nearly as good. But, welding some plates to the drive shaft is vastly better than nothing in an emergency. Similarly, if the choice is a poor solution or no electrical grid, having some power makes a huge difference.
    - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
      Look at this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_grid#/media/File:A_network_diagram_of_the_'nesta_case1354_pegase_high_voltage'_electrical_power_system.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_grid#/media/File:A_... The purple lines there stand for the highest voltage level of the grid which usually runs at 380.000 to 400.000 Volts(with a few higher exceptions). These and their transformers are the most vulnerable to what we are talking about. What do you hope to 'McGuyvering' there with maybe 110.000 Volts when the whole structure and anything connected to that is designed, specified, and built for at least three times the voltage?
      - Retric 6y ago
        This is what we are concerned with: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_grid#/media/File:UnitedStatesPowerGrid.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_grid#/media/File:Un... Not all of those lines are equally at risk, but for the sake of argument assume everything over 200KV is gone. 400kV is not directly stepped down to 33kV there are generally intermediaries at 132kV and or 66kV. So if you can send 132kV or even 66kV much of the equipment can be used. Getting enough power to operate refrigeration and stop lights is a big deal. If you can only send 20% of normal power across those lines then that’s what you’re stuck with. In places such as Hawaii, local generation is close enough that your it’s no big deal, in others you may end up with rolling blackouts or charging 1+$/kWh.
Jeema101 6y ago
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation apparently doesn't agree with that assessment: "NERC recognizes that other studies have indicated a severe GMD event would result in the failure of a large number of EHV transformers. The work of the GMD Task Force documented in this report does not support this result for reasons detailed in Chapter 5 (Power Transformers), and Chapter 8 (Power System Analysis). Instead, voltage instability is the far more likely result of a severe GMD storm, although older transformers of a certain design and transformers near the end of operation life could experience damage." https://web.archive.org/web/20150908075507/https://www.frcc.com/Public%20Awareness/Lists/Announcements/Attachments/105/GMD%20Interim%20Report.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20150908075507/https://www.frcc....
- SuoDuanDao 6y ago
  Well, I wasn't worried till I saw that. It reminds me of Trump saying there was no reason to worry about Coronavirus.
- spdustin 6y ago
  Read this transcript [0] of remarks—given to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission—at a 2016 hearing on US power transmission reliability. These remarks directly contradict the relevance and, indeed, the reliability of the NERC study quoted. [0] (pdf): https://www.resilientsocieties.org/uploads/5/4/0/0/54008795/resilient_societies_testimony_rm15-11-00_march_1_2016_tech_conference_final_feb_23_2016.pdf https://www.resilientsocieties.org/uploads/5/4/0/0/54008795/...
lowwave 6y ago
Seems like the trillions bailout money ought to be spent on hardening these systems to prevent a solar flares or EMP type of events.

throwaway_pdp09 6y ago

The stuff about blowing the transformers is exactly what I've heard too. If there are any EE who'd care to comment, I'd be curious to know if the level of power that starts flowing through HV cables could damage or destroy them. As I've not heard this I assume not (one bit of good news) but I'd like to know.

geomagthrowaway 6y ago
The problem is not directly with the wires, its the addition of the quasi-DC induced currents in an AC transformer. Even the addition of a small DC current can lead to unwanted harmonics or in extreme cases spot heating (this is what you think of when people say 'knocking out a transformer'). If you want a very in-depth review: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001501 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001501
- throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
  Well over my head but printed it out and will read anyway. Thank you.

Retric 6y ago

Electrical cables are untwisted, but they are also designed to handle a lot of current so the overwhelming majority would be fine. Unfortunately, ultra long distance power transmission cables are the exception. The long term damage from that is significantly less than assumed. Yes, making ultra efficient transformers designed to last decades is extremely time consuming, but building something less efficient in under a week is also possible. There would likely be various electrical issues until they where replaced, but that’s vastly better than societal collapse.

spdustin 6y ago
I do not believe the international supply chain is sufficient to replace any at-risk high-voltage transformers that are destroyed by an electromagnetic pulse. There is a considerable body of research around this topic.
- Retric 6y ago
  This is not a question of 1:1 replacement via the existing supply chain. This is using a 1920’s solution that gets us 80% of normal not the much better but more difficult 2020’s solution to the same problems. Consider, a modern ship’s propeller is an marvel of modern engineering that would be extremely difficult to replace with something nearly as good. But, welding some plates to the drive shaft is vastly better than nothing in an emergency. Similarly, if the choice is a poor solution or no electrical grid, having some power makes a huge difference.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
    Look at this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_grid#/media/File:A_network_diagram_of_the_'nesta_case1354_pegase_high_voltage'_electrical_power_system.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_grid#/media/File:A_... The purple lines there stand for the highest voltage level of the grid which usually runs at 380.000 to 400.000 Volts(with a few higher exceptions). These and their transformers are the most vulnerable to what we are talking about. What do you hope to 'McGuyvering' there with maybe 110.000 Volts when the whole structure and anything connected to that is designed, specified, and built for at least three times the voltage?
    - Retric 6y ago
      This is what we are concerned with: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_grid#/media/File:UnitedStatesPowerGrid.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_grid#/media/File:Un... Not all of those lines are equally at risk, but for the sake of argument assume everything over 200KV is gone. 400kV is not directly stepped down to 33kV there are generally intermediaries at 132kV and or 66kV. So if you can send 132kV or even 66kV much of the equipment can be used. Getting enough power to operate refrigeration and stop lights is a big deal. If you can only send 20% of normal power across those lines then that’s what you’re stuck with. In places such as Hawaii, local generation is close enough that your it’s no big deal, in others you may end up with rolling blackouts or charging 1+$/kWh.

Jeema101 6y ago

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation apparently doesn't agree with that assessment: "NERC recognizes that other studies have indicated a severe GMD event would result in the failure of a large number of EHV transformers. The work of the GMD Task Force documented in this report does not support this result for reasons detailed in Chapter 5 (Power Transformers), and Chapter 8 (Power System Analysis). Instead, voltage instability is the far more likely result of a severe GMD storm, although older transformers of a certain design and transformers near the end of operation life could experience damage." https://web.archive.org/web/20150908075507/https://www.frcc.com/Public%20Awareness/Lists/Announcements/Attachments/105/GMD%20Interim%20Report.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20150908075507/https://www.frcc....

SuoDuanDao 6y ago
Well, I wasn't worried till I saw that. It reminds me of Trump saying there was no reason to worry about Coronavirus.
spdustin 6y ago
Read this transcript [0] of remarks—given to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission—at a 2016 hearing on US power transmission reliability. These remarks directly contradict the relevance and, indeed, the reliability of the NERC study quoted. [0] (pdf): https://www.resilientsocieties.org/uploads/5/4/0/0/54008795/resilient_societies_testimony_rm15-11-00_march_1_2016_tech_conference_final_feb_23_2016.pdf https://www.resilientsocieties.org/uploads/5/4/0/0/54008795/...

lowwave 6y ago

Seems like the trillions bailout money ought to be spent on hardening these systems to prevent a solar flares or EMP type of events.