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I really do not buy this. Everything I've heard and read contradicts at least the "we'll be ok" view. Some very long untwisted thick wires are power cables. On

I really do not buy this. Everything I've heard and read contradicts at least the "we'll be ok" view. Some very long untwisted thick wires are power cables. On what evidential basis are you making this claim? https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-damage-could-be-caused-by-a-massive-solar-storm-25627394/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-damage-co... "An enormous solar storm could short out telecom satellites, radio communications, and power grids, leading to trillions of dollars in damages, experts say" I asked an electrical engineer how well we're prepared for a large solar storm like the carrington event. She said 2 words: "we're not". What do you know that an expert working in this area doesn't? More: https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/ https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/2... " A similar storm [to the carrington event] could have a catastrophic effect. According to a study by the National Academy of Sciences, the total economic impact could exceed $2 trillion or 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina. Multi-ton transformers damaged by such a storm might take years to repair. "In my view the July 2012 storm was in all respects at least as strong as the 1859 Carrington event," says Baker. "The only difference is, it missed." "

sandworm101 7y ago
"An enormous solar storm could short out telecom satellites, radio communications, and power grids, leading to trillions of dollars in damages, experts say" (1) Telecom sats are no longer essentially to much of anything. The vast majority of communcations happen over fiber lines, buried or laying deep under the ocean. GPS satalites may be affected, but the current crop are hardened and expected to survive. (2) Radio communications certainly may be disrupted during the storm. Our cellphones might be offline for a week, so too local radio stations: a temporary inconveniance rather than end-of-days. (3) Power grids may well be distrupted. Some transformers may blow. There are a handfull in the US that are of vital importance, but they could be replaced. A worst case senerio might see some large areas without GRID power for a period of weeks. But the power plants will still be there. Some sort of diminished local service would be restored. Who will feel the effects: The military. Militaries still rely on telecomunications via satalite. They still rely on radio for long range communications.
- throwaway_pdp09 7y ago
  So experts are wrong and you're right. OK.
  - ballenf 7y ago
    The reason I'm here is that there are often better informed experts here than in the cited articles. Maybe that's the case here or maybe not. Or maybe you're the best expert on the subject. I don't know, but I don't mind hearing the opposing view. It's not like (I hope!) any government's public policy is being driven by HN comment threads. > So experts are wrong and you're right. OK. Yes, that position was already clear from their comment.
    - throwaway_pdp09 7y ago
      There are sometimes better informed experts here I suppose. But you didn't ask, you just made nonverified declarations which a little reading of the links posted here would have told you were wrong. Didn't come across that you actually wanted to know the facts, but to assert that everything was fine, just fine. That kind of thinking is what got us into the covid crisis we're slogging through at fantastic cost right now. Of course that may not have been your intent but if not, what are you doing.
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago
  We don't have all that many spare transformers sitting around, waiting to be used when one fails. And they aren't all that fast to build. If we lose a number of transformers, it may be a while before some of them are replaced.
- buran77 7y ago
  You're handwaving a lot of serious effects of a powerful solar storm. The biggest issue by far is the power grid and depending on severity it can go from "we had a small spike that was easily absorbed by the network" to "the cables melted and set fire to everything around them". The worst case scenario might be that your power grid is down and nobody can intervene because every intervention site is on fire. Big cities would be particularly affected since they don't do well for long without power.

sandworm101 7y ago

"An enormous solar storm could short out telecom satellites, radio communications, and power grids, leading to trillions of dollars in damages, experts say" (1) Telecom sats are no longer essentially to much of anything. The vast majority of communcations happen over fiber lines, buried or laying deep under the ocean. GPS satalites may be affected, but the current crop are hardened and expected to survive. (2) Radio communications certainly may be disrupted during the storm. Our cellphones might be offline for a week, so too local radio stations: a temporary inconveniance rather than end-of-days. (3) Power grids may well be distrupted. Some transformers may blow. There are a handfull in the US that are of vital importance, but they could be replaced. A worst case senerio might see some large areas without GRID power for a period of weeks. But the power plants will still be there. Some sort of diminished local service would be restored. Who will feel the effects: The military. Militaries still rely on telecomunications via satalite. They still rely on radio for long range communications.

throwaway_pdp09 7y ago
So experts are wrong and you're right. OK.
- ballenf 7y ago
  The reason I'm here is that there are often better informed experts here than in the cited articles. Maybe that's the case here or maybe not. Or maybe you're the best expert on the subject. I don't know, but I don't mind hearing the opposing view. It's not like (I hope!) any government's public policy is being driven by HN comment threads. > So experts are wrong and you're right. OK. Yes, that position was already clear from their comment.
  - throwaway_pdp09 7y ago
    There are sometimes better informed experts here I suppose. But you didn't ask, you just made nonverified declarations which a little reading of the links posted here would have told you were wrong. Didn't come across that you actually wanted to know the facts, but to assert that everything was fine, just fine. That kind of thinking is what got us into the covid crisis we're slogging through at fantastic cost right now. Of course that may not have been your intent but if not, what are you doing.
AnimalMuppet 7y ago
We don't have all that many spare transformers sitting around, waiting to be used when one fails. And they aren't all that fast to build. If we lose a number of transformers, it may be a while before some of them are replaced.
buran77 7y ago
You're handwaving a lot of serious effects of a powerful solar storm. The biggest issue by far is the power grid and depending on severity it can go from "we had a small spike that was easily absorbed by the network" to "the cables melted and set fire to everything around them". The worst case scenario might be that your power grid is down and nobody can intervene because every intervention site is on fire. Big cities would be particularly affected since they don't do well for long without power.