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I agree that the link to Dr.Fauci is only "click bait" but, after reading another linked article, I have changed my mind and now I think that the Wuhan lab theo

I agree that the link to Dr.Fauci is only "click bait" but, after reading another linked article, I have changed my mind and now I think that the Wuhan lab theory deserves some consideration. This is the more interesting article in my opinion: https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments-that-may-have-started-coronavirus-pandemic-1500503 https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments...

hef19898 6y ago
Same source, so same potential agenda. If some other new outlet, preferably multiple, are confirming the facts, that would be different. All I heard about the Wuhan lab story was CT stuff back in January and February, until it popped up again recently after Trump, allegedly, pushed US intel to dig into it. And now this, at it's core, anti Fauci piece.
- RobertoG 6y ago
  I understand that. My reasoning has been: new viruses jump from other animals all the time, it has happened in the past, we don't have any reason to think that is not the case this time. It's not surprising at all that it appear in the most populated country in the world. But after learning about that lab, I have to think: that a new corona-virus appears in the wild a few kilometers out of one of the few labs specialized in corona-virus have to be explained. Personally, I can't just disregard that because it's not politically convenient.
  - hef19898 6y ago
    Numbers favour other sources than labs, as a comment pointed out above. Just apllying logic, it is more likely that the virus jumped from bats to humans in the "wild". Political convenience aside, the question whther the SARS-Cov-2 escaped from a lab or not doesn't seem to be that important in finding a solution / cure / vaccine. All it does is playing the blame game and distract from the real problems.
    - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
      Could be. Could also be "they" know exactly what happened, and are to blame for having others rediscovering the wheel (solution) again, because politics, saving face, whatever...
jml7c5 6y ago
My basic issue with the lab escape theory: if SARS-CoV2 is a natural strain (and there is at this point no evidence that it isn't), then why assume some researcher was patient zero, when millions of other people catch bat coronaviruses each year? The following interview (from [1]) puts it succinctly: >“If you do the math on this, it’s very straightforward. ... We have hundreds of millions of bats in Southeast Asia and about 10 percent of bats in some colonies have viruses at any one time. So that’s hundreds of thousands of bats every night with viruses,” Daszak says. “We also find tens of thousands of people in the wildlife trade, hunting and killing wildlife in China and Southeast Asia, and millions of people living in rural populations in Southeast Asia near bat caves.” >Next, he says, consider the data he’s collected on people near bat caves getting exposed to viruses: “We went out and surveyed a population in Yunnan, China — we’d been to bat caves and found viruses that we thought could be high risk. So we sample people nearby, and 3 percent had antibodies to those viruses,” he says. “So between the last two and three years, those people were exposed to bat coronaviruses. If you extrapolate that population across the whole of Southeast Asia, it’s 1 million to 7 million people a year getting infected by bat viruses.” >Compare that, he says, to what we know about the labs: “If you look at the labs in Southeast Asia that have any coronaviruses in culture, there are probably two or three and they’re in high security. The Wuhan Institute of Virology does have a small number of bat coronaviruses in culture. But they’re not [the new coronavirus], SARS-CoV-2. There are probably half a dozen people that do work in those labs. So let’s compare 1 million to 7 million people a year to half a dozen people; it’s just not logical.” [1]: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus-china https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus...
- RobertoG 6y ago
  Thanks for this. It really change the priors, reading those numbers. I will read all the article. Weighting against the lab theory also, it seems that there is not record of the "animal passage" technique was being used in the Wuhan Institute of Virology. That seems like something necessary. There are so many thing that I don't understand in all this, that I'm probably not qualified to have a strong opinion yet (or maybe never). For instance, I don't understand why bats are so prone to be source of viruses instead of other mammals.

hef19898 6y ago

Same source, so same potential agenda. If some other new outlet, preferably multiple, are confirming the facts, that would be different. All I heard about the Wuhan lab story was CT stuff back in January and February, until it popped up again recently after Trump, allegedly, pushed US intel to dig into it. And now this, at it's core, anti Fauci piece.

RobertoG 6y ago
I understand that. My reasoning has been: new viruses jump from other animals all the time, it has happened in the past, we don't have any reason to think that is not the case this time. It's not surprising at all that it appear in the most populated country in the world. But after learning about that lab, I have to think: that a new corona-virus appears in the wild a few kilometers out of one of the few labs specialized in corona-virus have to be explained. Personally, I can't just disregard that because it's not politically convenient.
- hef19898 6y ago
  Numbers favour other sources than labs, as a comment pointed out above. Just apllying logic, it is more likely that the virus jumped from bats to humans in the "wild". Political convenience aside, the question whther the SARS-Cov-2 escaped from a lab or not doesn't seem to be that important in finding a solution / cure / vaccine. All it does is playing the blame game and distract from the real problems.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
    Could be. Could also be "they" know exactly what happened, and are to blame for having others rediscovering the wheel (solution) again, because politics, saving face, whatever...

jml7c5 6y ago

My basic issue with the lab escape theory: if SARS-CoV2 is a natural strain (and there is at this point no evidence that it isn't), then why assume some researcher was patient zero, when millions of other people catch bat coronaviruses each year? The following interview (from [1]) puts it succinctly: >“If you do the math on this, it’s very straightforward. ... We have hundreds of millions of bats in Southeast Asia and about 10 percent of bats in some colonies have viruses at any one time. So that’s hundreds of thousands of bats every night with viruses,” Daszak says. “We also find tens of thousands of people in the wildlife trade, hunting and killing wildlife in China and Southeast Asia, and millions of people living in rural populations in Southeast Asia near bat caves.” >Next, he says, consider the data he’s collected on people near bat caves getting exposed to viruses: “We went out and surveyed a population in Yunnan, China — we’d been to bat caves and found viruses that we thought could be high risk. So we sample people nearby, and 3 percent had antibodies to those viruses,” he says. “So between the last two and three years, those people were exposed to bat coronaviruses. If you extrapolate that population across the whole of Southeast Asia, it’s 1 million to 7 million people a year getting infected by bat viruses.” >Compare that, he says, to what we know about the labs: “If you look at the labs in Southeast Asia that have any coronaviruses in culture, there are probably two or three and they’re in high security. The Wuhan Institute of Virology does have a small number of bat coronaviruses in culture. But they’re not [the new coronavirus], SARS-CoV-2. There are probably half a dozen people that do work in those labs. So let’s compare 1 million to 7 million people a year to half a dozen people; it’s just not logical.” [1]: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus-china https://www.vox.com/2020/4/23/21226484/wuhan-lab-coronavirus...

RobertoG 6y ago
Thanks for this. It really change the priors, reading those numbers. I will read all the article. Weighting against the lab theory also, it seems that there is not record of the "animal passage" technique was being used in the Wuhan Institute of Virology. That seems like something necessary. There are so many thing that I don't understand in all this, that I'm probably not qualified to have a strong opinion yet (or maybe never). For instance, I don't understand why bats are so prone to be source of viruses instead of other mammals.