"There is no alien life in the universe" vs "There is no clear evidence of alien life in the universe". Or say I have a jug containing marbles. I tell you the

"There is no alien life in the universe" vs "There is no clear evidence of alien life in the universe". Or say I have a jug containing marbles. I tell you there are either ninety-nine yellow marbles and one blue or one hundred yellow marbles. I'll draw 10 marbles and you pick "no blue" or "no clear evidence of blue" as your statement. If you're wrong, you owe $1M to charity. I've drawn 10 yellow. Which statement do you pick?