5 ms·

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20019375 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20019375

by ak217 6y ago

lend000 6y ago
I have a thread, too. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22353309 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22353309 Frankly, I don't think these videos alone are the highest quality evidence of this kind of thing, but they are interesting because it is difficult to dispute the credibility of the witnesses and the timeline of events described by them. Usually you get some tangible evidence (video) or solid witness testimony, not both at the same time. I've never clearly seen anything with my own two eyes that I couldn't explain in prosaic terms. However, I know groups of people saner than I who have, and science suggests its highly improbable we are the only planet with life [0], let alone the first one to evolve a sophisticated civilization. People come up with Great Filter hypotheses and what not to compensate, but considering we may be less than a century from self sustaining space stations, that hypothesis is running out of air for its only known test trial. It kind of sucks to think we don't really have manifest destiny with the universe, but the burden of proof is on the skeptics to prove there are some really damning parameters for the Drake Equation before saying it is so unlikely that there are aliens in our neighborhood. [0] https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/news/1350/are-we-alone-in-the-universe-revisiting-the-drake-equation/ https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/news/1350/are-we-alone-in-the-un...
- hindsightbias 6y ago
  “When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively). ’Where are they?’ — probably extremely far away, and quite possibly beyond the cosmological horizon and forever unreachable.” https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf Done and done.
  - lend000 6y ago
    Did you even try to understand the paper? They rightfully point out the uncertainty in estimating even the order of magnitude in the Drake equation, then build a model on uncertain, if not completely speculative facts including the Kardashev civilization model, and the validity of the "Fermi observation," which is in fact being debated in this very thread.
- crashity2 6y ago
  Great Filter... you mean like a pandemic brought about by a population density and economic footprint that exceeds the carrying capacity of the planet? Handled ineffectively by a retarded former reality TV host? With a population desperate to "get back to business" at the peak of the disease because they want someone to do their nails? No way a technological society could destroy itself through collective stupidity... just not possible.
  - gremlinsinc 6y ago
    Checks notes..yeah this works.. also checks notes.. nope this isn't reddit. (seems more like a reddit comment, an observation not a critique). I think honestly humanity is being squandered by income inequality. Imagine if money wasn't an issue for anyone. Imagine that we had a HUGE appreciation of science so much so that 90% of kids grow up to be scientists and explorers. Surely that would get us to have higher and better technologies and also get us further in space flight. But instead elites would rather the potential scientists of the future 'know their place' and remain there in poverty never getting a degree/etc...
- rtsil 6y ago
  > considering we may be less than a century from self sustaining space stations The jump between space stations and interstellar travel is huge. I agree that it's improbable that we're the only planet with life, but being visited by aliens is as, if not more, improbable. Consider the age of the universe, our (humanity, with the ability to apprehend the existence of alien life) existence in it is but a blip. What are the odds that one or several forms of life capable of interstellar travel exist during that same time period, not before or after. That alone, among myriad other reasons, makes me pessimistic.
  - postalrat 6y ago
    If they are sending out probes how long do those probes remain active? Can they repair themselves or build more on their own? I assume that is what we would be seeing.
    - incompatible 6y ago
      Wouldn't they have been easily observed by now, perhaps even making contact? Unless they are deliberately trying to remain unobserved, in which case being caught on video from an aircraft seems careless.
    - gremlinsinc 6y ago
      We should create message bots and probes who basically explore far reaches of space and categorize data, send it back to all other nodes and essentially make as detailed a 'map' of life/discoveries/etc so that not only we could use it benignly but so could other species who come after us. Assuming they could figure out and translate/understand how we categorize it.
javert 6y ago
> https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20019375 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20019375 This is an amazing explanation. If this is the explanation, why didn't the Pentagon just say so?
- booleandilemma 6y ago
  We’re in the middle of a national crisis 20x worse than 9/11, and they need something to distract the populace with?
  - javert 6y ago
    But they don't need to distract the population from the coronavirus crisis.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20019375 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20019375

by ak217 6y ago

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20019375 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20019375

I have a thread, too. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22353309 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22353309 Frankly, I don't think these videos alone are the highest quality evidence of this kind of thing, but they are interesting because it is difficult to dispute the credibility of the witnesses and the timeline of events described by them. Usually you get some tangible evidence (video) or solid witness testimony, not both at the same time. I've never clearly seen anything with my own two eyes that I couldn't explain in prosaic terms. However, I know groups of people saner than I who have, and science suggests its highly improbable we are the only planet with life [0], let alone the first one to evolve a sophisticated civilization. People come up with Great Filter hypotheses and what not to compensate, but considering we may be less than a century from self sustaining space stations, that hypothesis is running out of air for its only known test trial. It kind of sucks to think we don't really have manifest destiny with the universe, but the burden of proof is on the skeptics to prove there are some really damning parameters for the Drake Equation before saying it is so unlikely that there are aliens in our neighborhood. [0] https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/news/1350/are-we-alone-in-the-universe-revisiting-the-drake-equation/ https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/news/1350/are-we-alone-in-the-un...

hindsightbias 6y ago
“When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively). ’Where are they?’ — probably extremely far away, and quite possibly beyond the cosmological horizon and forever unreachable.” https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf Done and done.
- lend000 6y ago
  Did you even try to understand the paper? They rightfully point out the uncertainty in estimating even the order of magnitude in the Drake equation, then build a model on uncertain, if not completely speculative facts including the Kardashev civilization model, and the validity of the "Fermi observation," which is in fact being debated in this very thread.
crashity2 6y ago
Great Filter... you mean like a pandemic brought about by a population density and economic footprint that exceeds the carrying capacity of the planet? Handled ineffectively by a retarded former reality TV host? With a population desperate to "get back to business" at the peak of the disease because they want someone to do their nails? No way a technological society could destroy itself through collective stupidity... just not possible.
- gremlinsinc 6y ago
  Checks notes..yeah this works.. also checks notes.. nope this isn't reddit. (seems more like a reddit comment, an observation not a critique). I think honestly humanity is being squandered by income inequality. Imagine if money wasn't an issue for anyone. Imagine that we had a HUGE appreciation of science so much so that 90% of kids grow up to be scientists and explorers. Surely that would get us to have higher and better technologies and also get us further in space flight. But instead elites would rather the potential scientists of the future 'know their place' and remain there in poverty never getting a degree/etc...
rtsil 6y ago
> considering we may be less than a century from self sustaining space stations The jump between space stations and interstellar travel is huge. I agree that it's improbable that we're the only planet with life, but being visited by aliens is as, if not more, improbable. Consider the age of the universe, our (humanity, with the ability to apprehend the existence of alien life) existence in it is but a blip. What are the odds that one or several forms of life capable of interstellar travel exist during that same time period, not before or after. That alone, among myriad other reasons, makes me pessimistic.
- postalrat 6y ago
  If they are sending out probes how long do those probes remain active? Can they repair themselves or build more on their own? I assume that is what we would be seeing.
  - incompatible 6y ago
    Wouldn't they have been easily observed by now, perhaps even making contact? Unless they are deliberately trying to remain unobserved, in which case being caught on video from an aircraft seems careless.
  - gremlinsinc 6y ago
    We should create message bots and probes who basically explore far reaches of space and categorize data, send it back to all other nodes and essentially make as detailed a 'map' of life/discoveries/etc so that not only we could use it benignly but so could other species who come after us. Assuming they could figure out and translate/understand how we categorize it.

javert 6y ago

> https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20019375 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20019375 This is an amazing explanation. If this is the explanation, why didn't the Pentagon just say so?

booleandilemma 6y ago
We’re in the middle of a national crisis 20x worse than 9/11, and they need something to distract the populace with?
- javert 6y ago
  But they don't need to distract the population from the coronavirus crisis.