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Did this guy even talk to a power grid engineer before posting his opinion? Offline spares of long lead time equipment are always kept by utilities. The risk to

Did this guy even talk to a power grid engineer before posting his opinion? Offline spares of long lead time equipment are always kept by utilities. The risk to the power grid is institutional knowledge, if something happens to the small group of greybeards who run each regional utility, they could bring in new qualified engineers but it would take time to understand the system (which would cause an outage that either wouldn't happen in the first place or would be short to become protracted). The other major risk is if they are kept from doing their jobs due to budget or political issues (see: PG&E)

beckingz 6y ago
The main issue is that ultra high voltage transformers are large, expensive, have long lead times (12-36 months!), and are built almost entirely in China. You're correct though, that the entire energy industry skews old and is at risk of losing a lot of knowledge as talent retires. The real risk is squirrels and trees though. Flora and fauna do not play well with transmission equipment.
- antsar 6y ago
  > long lead times (12-36 months!) I was skeptical, but this seems right (at least circa 2012). Here's a source: https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/Large%20Power%20Transformer%20Study%20-%20June%202012_0.pdf https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/Large%20Power%20Tran... (summarized in the Concluding Remarks section)
- mepiethree 6y ago
  yeah, squirrels are going to kill us all someday. here's a fun map of all the power failures caused by squirrels, as documentation of WW3 https://cybersquirrel1.com/ https://cybersquirrel1.com/
mepiethree 6y ago
> Did this guy even talk to a power grid engineer before posting his opinion? Seems like no? haha. To his credit, he admits he is not an expert and asks us to tell him why he is wrong. Unfortunately, when I read the comments, it seems like none of his blog readers are experts on the subject, either. So, maybe not "Monday Morning Quarterbacking," but certainly Armchair Quarterbacking.

beckingz 6y ago

The main issue is that ultra high voltage transformers are large, expensive, have long lead times (12-36 months!), and are built almost entirely in China. You're correct though, that the entire energy industry skews old and is at risk of losing a lot of knowledge as talent retires. The real risk is squirrels and trees though. Flora and fauna do not play well with transmission equipment.

antsar 6y ago
> long lead times (12-36 months!) I was skeptical, but this seems right (at least circa 2012). Here's a source: https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/Large%20Power%20Transformer%20Study%20-%20June%202012_0.pdf https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/Large%20Power%20Tran... (summarized in the Concluding Remarks section)
mepiethree 6y ago
yeah, squirrels are going to kill us all someday. here's a fun map of all the power failures caused by squirrels, as documentation of WW3 https://cybersquirrel1.com/ https://cybersquirrel1.com/

mepiethree 6y ago

> Did this guy even talk to a power grid engineer before posting his opinion? Seems like no? haha. To his credit, he admits he is not an expert and asks us to tell him why he is wrong. Unfortunately, when I read the comments, it seems like none of his blog readers are experts on the subject, either. So, maybe not "Monday Morning Quarterbacking," but certainly Armchair Quarterbacking.