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That's what the US troops are there for. The US needs the Saudi dictators to maintain their influence in the region.

by 101404 6y ago

ashtonkem 6y ago
Needed, past tense. US foreign policy used to be shaped around our need for Saudi oil, and IMO hasn’t properly adjusted to the fact that America is energy independent again. The realpolitik question now isn’t “how can I secure Saudi oil” But rather “what’s the least I can do to reduce any risk of terrorism”.
- arcticbull 6y ago
  C'mon now, for years the largest source of foreign oil going into the US was from Canada. Even today, Canadian oil accounts for 40% of imports, with the KSA a distant 11% [1]. The whole energy independence as a form of security through reduced financing of questionable governments thing was a red herring, even if you're worried about the northern border. Imports remain around 7 million barrels of oil per day, down from a high of 9. What's shot up is exports. Oil imports into the US haven't changed much. The US continues to "need" to import just as much oil as they always have from the KSA. [2] Even Canada imports from the KSA, for a lot of reasons [3]. Keep in mind, too, the largest supply of oil in the world is under Venezuela, with 18% of the global supply. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_in_the_United_States [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_in_the_United_States#/media/File:U.S._oil_Imports_by_Country_of_Origin.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_in_the_United_States... [3] https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/why-has-canada-spent-billions-of-dollars-buying-saudi-arabian-oil https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/why-has-canada-spent-bi...
  - ashtonkem 6y ago
    The Canada thing is a good point, I always forget how much of our imports come from our peaceful neighbors. America continues to import KSA oil mostly because California won’t frack, which could be changed if necessary. As far as continuing to import, I believe that’s a factor of oil and refinery quality. America has some amazing refineries capable of eating garbage quality oil, including diluted tar. Since fracking produces high quality oil, my suspicion is that it’s cheaper to export that to older refineries, and import lower quality crude to refine domestically. But I’m no expert here.
    - arcticbull 6y ago
      The article about why Canada imports oil is interesting. Some of the Maritimes are cut off from pipelines, and aren't set up to refine bitumen. It's actually just cheaper to buy KSA oil than solve these problems. I wonder if this is true in the US since I was under the impression West Texas Intermediate was pretty comparable to Arab Light. I'd love to learn more about the specifics here.
      - ashtonkem 6y ago
        IIRC many American refineries were retooled at great cost to eat both Canadian and South American oil, which is lower quality than the Arab stuff; nobody expected that fracking would suddenly produce a glut of really high quality oil. Also, good quality oil can be used to dilute thicker oils to the point where refineries can process them. It’s my understanding that this is how you process Venezuelan oil for example. It wouldn’t surprise me to find out that American oil is being exported to blend other stuff before refining.
- toasterlovin 6y ago
  FWIW, I would not underestimate the degree to which foreign powers that are, otherwise, irrelevant to US interests can capture parts of the US political system. It is an unfortunate fact that political influence is not all that expensive to purchase.
- unreal37 6y ago
  The US "was" energy independent. But now all the US oil drillers are shutting down. The same factors hurting Saudi are hurting oil in the US.
  - RC_ITR 6y ago
    Yeah, but now we’ve proven that we can supply our own oil without it being a major drag on the economy. We may go back to importing one the short term, but losing access to Saudi crude is now a 100% solvable problem, because all we need to do is ramp up fracking again.
  - ashtonkem 6y ago
    While price drops can hurt US oil companies, the US is now immune to price spikes, since it can spool up oil production quickly. Maybe Congress needs to bail out oil producers during a glut, but that’s a lot cheaper than Saudi having to run most of their economy on credit.
  - duxup 6y ago
    The US oil business has always been boom or bust. After prices rise the oil will still be there.
- sjg007 6y ago
  Well US troops are there to be a check on Iran, China and Russia. Terrorism is a rare side effect.
  - fmajid 6y ago
    The presence of US troops in Saudi Arabia was a primary motivation for Bin Laden and 9/11.
    - sjg007 6y ago
      This is nothing new, the US has been there since WW2.. Before that the UK. People forget history.
      - azinman2 6y ago
        Don’t forget France
- lotsofpulp 6y ago
  > US foreign policy used to be shaped around our need for Saudi oil US foreign policy is shaped around making sure the whole region remains in conflict. That allows for more weapons sales, cheaper oil due to infighting, and excuses to intervene and have the military there.
  - ashtonkem 6y ago
    America no longer wants cheap oil; it crowds out the natively produced stuff. Gasoline is currently < $1/gal in many states due to the production glut and pandemic, and the president is currently talking about how to increase the cost of oil. I don't think that everyone has fully grasped how America being energy independent changes the game.
- 101404 6y ago
  It's not only about the US need for Saudi oil. It's about controlling the access to oil of friends and foes. Can't be the global hegemon without controlling that access. And it's also about keeping oil being billed in US dollars. That's why the US can print as much money as they want (well, almost).
- hindsightbias 6y ago
  The Saudi’s have burned through generations of radicals by exporting them to other conflicts. Afghanistan, Balkans, Chechnya, Somalia, Indonesia, Libya, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. With an ever increasing population and shrinking pot of gold, I’m thinking Syria Part II once the current regime in Washington DC is removed. For neoliberals, like neocons, Terrorism is a feature - not a problem. Neither have had a seat at the table for the last 4 years, but they’re not going to let this opportunity go to waste. And we’re going to pay for it.

That's what the US troops are there for. The US needs the Saudi dictators to maintain their influence in the region.

by 101404 6y ago

That's what the US troops are there for. The US needs the Saudi dictators to maintain their influence in the region.

Needed, past tense. US foreign policy used to be shaped around our need for Saudi oil, and IMO hasn’t properly adjusted to the fact that America is energy independent again. The realpolitik question now isn’t “how can I secure Saudi oil” But rather “what’s the least I can do to reduce any risk of terrorism”.

arcticbull 6y ago
C'mon now, for years the largest source of foreign oil going into the US was from Canada. Even today, Canadian oil accounts for 40% of imports, with the KSA a distant 11% [1]. The whole energy independence as a form of security through reduced financing of questionable governments thing was a red herring, even if you're worried about the northern border. Imports remain around 7 million barrels of oil per day, down from a high of 9. What's shot up is exports. Oil imports into the US haven't changed much. The US continues to "need" to import just as much oil as they always have from the KSA. [2] Even Canada imports from the KSA, for a lot of reasons [3]. Keep in mind, too, the largest supply of oil in the world is under Venezuela, with 18% of the global supply. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_in_the_United_States [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_in_the_United_States#/media/File:U.S._oil_Imports_by_Country_of_Origin.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_in_the_United_States... [3] https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/why-has-canada-spent-billions-of-dollars-buying-saudi-arabian-oil https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/why-has-canada-spent-bi...
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  The Canada thing is a good point, I always forget how much of our imports come from our peaceful neighbors. America continues to import KSA oil mostly because California won’t frack, which could be changed if necessary. As far as continuing to import, I believe that’s a factor of oil and refinery quality. America has some amazing refineries capable of eating garbage quality oil, including diluted tar. Since fracking produces high quality oil, my suspicion is that it’s cheaper to export that to older refineries, and import lower quality crude to refine domestically. But I’m no expert here.
  - arcticbull 6y ago
    The article about why Canada imports oil is interesting. Some of the Maritimes are cut off from pipelines, and aren't set up to refine bitumen. It's actually just cheaper to buy KSA oil than solve these problems. I wonder if this is true in the US since I was under the impression West Texas Intermediate was pretty comparable to Arab Light. I'd love to learn more about the specifics here.
    - ashtonkem 6y ago
      IIRC many American refineries were retooled at great cost to eat both Canadian and South American oil, which is lower quality than the Arab stuff; nobody expected that fracking would suddenly produce a glut of really high quality oil. Also, good quality oil can be used to dilute thicker oils to the point where refineries can process them. It’s my understanding that this is how you process Venezuelan oil for example. It wouldn’t surprise me to find out that American oil is being exported to blend other stuff before refining.
toasterlovin 6y ago
FWIW, I would not underestimate the degree to which foreign powers that are, otherwise, irrelevant to US interests can capture parts of the US political system. It is an unfortunate fact that political influence is not all that expensive to purchase.
unreal37 6y ago
The US "was" energy independent. But now all the US oil drillers are shutting down. The same factors hurting Saudi are hurting oil in the US.
- RC_ITR 6y ago
  Yeah, but now we’ve proven that we can supply our own oil without it being a major drag on the economy. We may go back to importing one the short term, but losing access to Saudi crude is now a 100% solvable problem, because all we need to do is ramp up fracking again.
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  While price drops can hurt US oil companies, the US is now immune to price spikes, since it can spool up oil production quickly. Maybe Congress needs to bail out oil producers during a glut, but that’s a lot cheaper than Saudi having to run most of their economy on credit.
- duxup 6y ago
  The US oil business has always been boom or bust. After prices rise the oil will still be there.
sjg007 6y ago
Well US troops are there to be a check on Iran, China and Russia. Terrorism is a rare side effect.
- fmajid 6y ago
  The presence of US troops in Saudi Arabia was a primary motivation for Bin Laden and 9/11.
  - sjg007 6y ago
    This is nothing new, the US has been there since WW2.. Before that the UK. People forget history.
    - azinman2 6y ago
      Don’t forget France
lotsofpulp 6y ago
> US foreign policy used to be shaped around our need for Saudi oil US foreign policy is shaped around making sure the whole region remains in conflict. That allows for more weapons sales, cheaper oil due to infighting, and excuses to intervene and have the military there.
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  America no longer wants cheap oil; it crowds out the natively produced stuff. Gasoline is currently < $1/gal in many states due to the production glut and pandemic, and the president is currently talking about how to increase the cost of oil. I don't think that everyone has fully grasped how America being energy independent changes the game.
101404 6y ago
It's not only about the US need for Saudi oil. It's about controlling the access to oil of friends and foes. Can't be the global hegemon without controlling that access. And it's also about keeping oil being billed in US dollars. That's why the US can print as much money as they want (well, almost).
hindsightbias 6y ago
The Saudi’s have burned through generations of radicals by exporting them to other conflicts. Afghanistan, Balkans, Chechnya, Somalia, Indonesia, Libya, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. With an ever increasing population and shrinking pot of gold, I’m thinking Syria Part II once the current regime in Washington DC is removed. For neoliberals, like neocons, Terrorism is a feature - not a problem. Neither have had a seat at the table for the last 4 years, but they’re not going to let this opportunity go to waste. And we’re going to pay for it.