4 ms·

This is one of the classic signs it's a bubble right? (when people in the industry claim it's not)

_delirium 16y ago
True, but by that measure you can't win, because when even the insiders who profit from the situation are calling it a bubble, the signs are even worse!
arnorhs 16y ago
Isn't the biggest and most obvious sign when people outside of the industry get into the industry? As in when everybody's grandma had started investing in startups in 1999 and in the real estate bubble when everybody's grandma was suddenly buying big houses and selling them with a markup 2 months later.
- adestefan 16y ago
  Wait until they start making TV shows about how to make money quick off of it.
  - daniel-cussen 16y ago
    That's actually a pretty good sign it's saturated, which is probably a necessary condition for a bubble.
- jaekwon 16y ago
  You mean like AngelList?
bad_user 16y ago
It's easy to be negative and "predict" things - once in a while you might even get it right, then the world will notice you as a visionary :) The press is shouting "bubble". People in the industry, afraid of a domino effect are claiming it is not. News at 11. If you want signs, you need to look for them elsewhere. Like the huge evaluations for companies that fail to produce profits; in spite of their enormous size. Also, are these evaluations growing exponentially? I'm don't know much about the inner-workings of an economy, but most articles I've seen on the subject are very shallow and totally void of meaningful data.
deleted 16y ago
[deleted]
cynicalkane 16y ago
OK, so when is it not a bubble? I suppose if everyone says it's a bubble, it's not one, but how often does that happen?
jonny_eh 16y ago
That is such a worthless, and wrong, thing to say. It's like saying that since denial is a sign of grief, if you say you're not grieving therefore you are.
nitrogen 16y ago
I appreciate your humor. Unfortunately there are so many who actually reason using the most common of fallacies: reversing the direction of the arrow of implication. A->B != B->A.

True, but by that measure you can't win, because when even the insiders who profit from the situation are calling it a bubble, the signs are even worse!

arnorhs 16y ago

Isn't the biggest and most obvious sign when people outside of the industry get into the industry? As in when everybody's grandma had started investing in startups in 1999 and in the real estate bubble when everybody's grandma was suddenly buying big houses and selling them with a markup 2 months later.

adestefan 16y ago
Wait until they start making TV shows about how to make money quick off of it.
- daniel-cussen 16y ago
  That's actually a pretty good sign it's saturated, which is probably a necessary condition for a bubble.
jaekwon 16y ago
You mean like AngelList?

bad_user 16y ago

It's easy to be negative and "predict" things - once in a while you might even get it right, then the world will notice you as a visionary :) The press is shouting "bubble". People in the industry, afraid of a domino effect are claiming it is not. News at 11. If you want signs, you need to look for them elsewhere. Like the huge evaluations for companies that fail to produce profits; in spite of their enormous size. Also, are these evaluations growing exponentially? I'm don't know much about the inner-workings of an economy, but most articles I've seen on the subject are very shallow and totally void of meaningful data.

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

cynicalkane 16y ago

OK, so when is it not a bubble? I suppose if everyone says it's a bubble, it's not one, but how often does that happen?

jonny_eh 16y ago

That is such a worthless, and wrong, thing to say. It's like saying that since denial is a sign of grief, if you say you're not grieving therefore you are.

nitrogen 16y ago

I appreciate your humor. Unfortunately there are so many who actually reason using the most common of fallacies: reversing the direction of the arrow of implication. A->B != B->A.