11 ms·

Signs that a business idea will probably fail

287 points by spking 6y ago

danieltillett 6y ago
Not a bad post. One suggestion that has worked for me to stop me working on dozens of ideas at once is to write them down in detail in an ideas diary. This seems to take away most of the desire to start working on the idea right now.
- taneq 6y ago
  Sounds like a variant of rule 11 in the Done Manifesto[1]: "If you have an idea and publish it on the internet, that counts as a ghost of done." You're just posting it to your future self but it still counts. You can then let it go out of your head and think about something else. [1] https://medium.com/@bre/the-cult-of-done-manifesto-724ca1c2ff13 https://medium.com/@bre/the-cult-of-done-manifesto-724ca1c2f...
- tluyben2 6y ago
  Do you later execute any of them? I feel I need the optimism that I only have when I do not see the details clearly yet to start something.
  - admiral33 6y ago
    I'm just getting out of school (last round of finals coming up) and I've got several ideas bouncing around. I've also taken to putting them down in diary/journal (originally just started as aimlessly sticking hundreds of post it notes around my room). The one thing I've taken away from it is that design is work - and magically - when I sit down and work on the design and get more specific the better the design gets. It's a motivating feeling for me as I gain momentum. If it's written down I don't feel like I'm throwing a baby away every time I consider a different approach or project because it's already written/drawn and I can go back at any time, and usually when I go back I can take what is newly considered and recognize some commonality between them that leads to yet another new approach that is simpler and covers the value proposition of both approaches. All of this is objectively better than having the images and ideas flash into my head - because that doesn't stop. It gives me the freedom to iterate with new ideas rather than the same model 0 over and over again. But again this process is all new to me. We'll see if anything comes out of it.
  - danieltillett 6y ago
    Yes. The last one I executed on was to do in depth fundamental analysis on all the ASX listed biotech/pharma companies (there are about 70 of them). Out of this process I found one very undervalued company that I took a large strategic investment in and joined the board to help turn it around. This has turned into a very good investment, although it has taken up a lot of my time.
    - tluyben2 6y ago
      Nice. What works for someone might not work for someone we can see again!
- bgdam 6y ago
  Have to second this. I used to have so many 'started in excitement, but probably never going to work on it ever again' projects. Then I started an 'Ideas' board on Trello, and forced myself to put ideas there instead of working on it immediately. I am not allowed to work on an idea unless it's been on the board for atleast two weeks. This forces me to spend a lot more time thinking past the initial one-line idea, and refining it. Eventually, for about 90% of the ideas, by the end of the two week period, I've come to the conclusion to discard it. So now, the 10% that I do end up working on, are much more likely to see sustained work being done on them.
  - highfrequency 6y ago
    This is interesting! To clarify: in the first two weeks, you don't allow yourself to work on the idea (eg start writing code), but you do allow yourself to research the idea. And you find that the initial research phase usually turns up compelling reasons not to undertake the project after all. Is this right? How do you prevent the research phase of a new idea from distracting you from your current project?
    - bgdam 6y ago
      I usually have a fixed block of time for working on side projects on weekends. The research phase usually happens through the week, whenever I have the time to think about it. My problem generally is splitting the weekend time across too many projects, with newer ideas displacing older ones. Having much fewer ideas to work on in total, helps me spend more time on them.
- nickbauman 6y ago
  I read that you're supposed to work on / research / carefully understand the problem that needs solving and stay away from a solution for a long as possible. The problem has to pass a number of tests before going the next step of how you will reach people and get them to pay for a solution (often called the "go to market" strategy). Only after you've nailed this are you supposed to consider how to implement a solution.
  - jacobobryant 6y ago
    I've heard this too. However, building the solution can help you understand the problem. So I prefer to go for lightweight solutions/prototyping right away.
- gitgud 6y ago
  The good thing about this approach is that when you review them (after a certain amount of time) you lose the personal attachment to the ideas. It feels like you're being presenting Startup ideas from someone else, which allows you to be more objective and critical about their validity... hopefully leading to better judgement
- Brajeshwar 6y ago
  Anyone trying to do this; should read this tweet thread https://twitter.com/intentionally/status/1234918066649272325 https://twitter.com/intentionally/status/1234918066649272325 I like the idea though I moved to a pure text (and/or MarkDown) for all of my writings. Bear is not a bad tool if you'd like writing while on the move on your phone.
- wpietri 6y ago
  Definitely! The other thing I'd recommend is something kanban-esque. E.g., you have max 1 thing you're working on, max 3 ideas that you think are your best things to do next, and then the rest in a big pile. This has a few benefits for me. The top 3 unstarted ideas help defend the thing I'm working on. If I think of something new, I first have to ask myself if it's better than the top 3. Usually it isn't so it goes in the backlog. Then if I'm starting to question the thing I'm working on, I can say, "Has something changed such that killing this and switching to one of the top 3 a better use of my time?" Having things to compare it with helps ground my thinkin.
- moneywoes 6y ago
  Do you physically write them on paper or use an app?
- TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
  I have a semi-formal annual and quarterly review process to keep track of ideas and prioritise the projects that need attention. Most of the time I'm working on code, but every so often I step back to set explicit goals and brainstorm possibilities. Details are kept in a collection of kanban-like spreadsheets so there'a always an overview of what needs to be done at each level. It's a workable way to minimised ADHD and keep me from getting distracted by new shinies.
user239 6y ago
Is it just me or the logic in #3 is deeply flawed? I mean who of the author’s heroes knew in advance what their companies were going to become (and thus how “special” they were)?
syllogism 6y ago
I very much disagree with: > 7. You are operating mainly on assumptions You'll always be operating mainly on assumptions. Everyone will. It does help to check your assumptions against external things, so if you're wrong, you can notice faster. But even the process of noticing that the data is confusing is like 99.99% rationalism and only 0.01% empiricism.
- bluewalt 6y ago
  I spent 2 years building an awesome product, thinking that my future clients would think this product awesome too, and that they would need it. I was completely wrong. I didn't know my clients and my market. This is the exact definition of operating mainly on assumptions. I lost at least 18 months, since I could have find this out way sooner.
  - pier25 6y ago
    What did you build?
  - jariel 6y ago
    Tell us more about the product, market, and clients.
    - bluewalt 6y ago
      I built a copycat of www.bellycard.com for French market. As a software engineer, the technical product was good IMHO. but I spent almost 2 years to build it, without really trying to sell it. My thought was: "if it's sold in US, it will be sellable in France". Then I found ont the real truth: - Merchants won't find your website to buy your amazing product, you need to meet them physically (that can seems obvious but it was not the case for me at that time) - Merchants don't care about you or your product. They won't listen to you in deep, except if you have specific social skills (I don't). Every day someone enters in their shop trying to sell them something. If you're not psychologically ready to hear "I don't care" or "is it free?" 9 times on 10, then you can not do that for a very long time. - Independant merchants, generally speaking, don't have any marketing skills. What seems obvious for you is not for them. For example, they don't see the powerfulness of getting emails and consuming habits of their own customers. Plus, I'd say 2/3 of them were really suspicious about technology in general. So what was hard here was not to make a product that have intrinsic value for merchants, but to teach merchants what this value is. The real need to succeed in this project is absolutely not tech, it's to know the market, and how to convince merchants.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
samtho 6y ago
> 2. You are working on more than 1 thing This is so true it’s almost a cliché. Too often have I been in organizations that try to do a little of everything I hoped to eventually find something that sticks and it has almost never worked out.
- bluedino 6y ago
  He means side projects or businesses. If you want to build Uber, don't try to build eBay or PayPal on the side. Founders and other early employees have to do a little of everything as there isn't anyone else to do HR, sales, marketing...
rickpmg 6y ago
> That’s why entrepreneurs, myself included, waste years of their lives on shitty ideas that will never work, following the popular trend of “ideas don’t matter, only execution matters”. The saying has to do with just having an idea is worthless in itself, you have to do something with that idea. He interprets it as a shitty idea will be successful if executed well. Wow.
- crsv 6y ago
  Anyone worth their salt knows the idea is a necessary condition, but not a satisfactory one. The execution is typically the largest part of finding success, and along the journey the idea often feels like it fades in to the background and starts to seem obvious rather than novel, but of course the idea matters.
- icelancer 6y ago
  Lot of things look like shitty ideas retroactively.
  - danieltillett 6y ago
    Yes especially shitty ideas.
- elicash 6y ago
  I think the clearest interpretation of "ideas don't matter" is that first-mover advantage is, at best, overrated relative to execution. Not that I endorse this. But I think it's a clearer way of saying it. The concern is that people are afraid to test their idea and get feedback to improve upon it because somebody may "steal" it.
  - naasking 6y ago
    Squandering your first mover advantage doesn't indicate it was overrated. If you actually listen to the feedback, then you're miles ahead of any competition given a first mover advantage.
yesimahuman 6y ago
A sign that a business will fail: you worship tech heroes instead of being willing to forge your own path and go against the grain (see #3)
Redoubts 6y ago
Who is this guy? Aside from someone who says he started and failed many businesses from a smorgasbord of ideas. I went to his about page, but gave up after scrolling past the 30th selfie.
AbrahamParangi 6y ago
> 3. You are the wrong person for the job This is ridiculously bad advice. How can you expect to make a dent in the universe if you can't even manage to believe in yourself?
- yters 6y ago
  How can you expect to make a dent if you spend all your time in a task for which you are unsuited?
- MagnumPIG 6y ago
  It's weird because it's a valid point, but they go on to elaborate using absurdly misguided arguments. They're mostly developing on the importance of being smart, all the while misunderstanding what being smart is (it's not grades jesus christ) and failing to establish a correlation between smarts and fitness for a particular task.
- rognjen 6y ago
  This might be good advice for ideas that might be good but not in a field that interests you. Then you aren't the right person for the job. But the "you're not good enough" justification seems misguided.
- duxup 6y ago
  I feel like that item ... actually weaves in and out of much of the article and goes from being a question about if you're smart enough in #3 ... but even ties back to point 1 where maybe you don't know the industry, possibly not at all, and the point about assumptions and so forth. That point almost seems like most of the points tied together.
paulcole 6y ago
> When I think about entrepreneurs who have given large amounts to causes, the ones I think of like Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg, Jeff Bezos What causes has Bezos given to? He shouldn’t even be mentioned in the same sentence as Gates.
- bdcravens 6y ago
  This article points out that Bezos has been light on his giving (compared to the richest billionaires) but it also lists out who he has given to, which is a diverse set of interests as well as some princely sums: https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/news-trends/article/3075956/why-hasnt-jeff-bezos-donated-much-charity-billionaires https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/news-trends/article/307...
ftbai 6y ago
> You are the wrong person for the job The first rule of "some level of self awareness" is to not completely hand yourself over to survivorship bias. So the argument is that Mark is a smart hacker and possesses "balls of steel" -> Mark is successful? And because you're the opposite way -> you'll fail? No. He's been completely blindsided by survivorship bias. It's actually the other way, from that Mark became very successful (via good luck which was probably modulated by some highly attainable level of skill in execution) -> everyone thinks Mark is a super hacker with balls of steel. It's terrible advice which gives you premonitions about yourself which would keep you from even trying. Or maybe the author can actually tell innate potential to some uncanny degree, in which case he should join YC to vet founders.
- marcus_holmes 6y ago
  this. Also in point #3 - "these people are not like us" then points #4,#6 using tech idols as role models. If they're not like us then we can stop using them as role models, right?
rglover 6y ago
That working on multiple things at the same time one is spot on. That has been the #1 reason I've screwed stuff up. Something I constantly remind myself: it's not that you're not capable of doing that thing, it's that you don't have the capacity. You may be perfectly capable of doing something, but if you don't have the capacity to do it, there's a good chance you'll blow it. Disconnecting your ego from reality on this one will save you a ton of heartache and stress. And for those who say "not me," I, too, was an egomaniac and thought everyone else wasn't as good. Pump your brakes and thank me later.
- rlayton2 6y ago
  I have "one rabbit" at the top of my TODO list to remind me of this, from the saying: "He who chases two rabbits catches neither." - Confucius
  - rglover 6y ago
    Oh, that's good. I'm stealing this.
- brnt 6y ago
  Being incapable and having no capacity sounds very similar to me. Could you explain the difference a bit more?
  - advaita 6y ago
    Example: I am physically/mentally/financially capable of taking a bike tour across US, to do that I need X amount of time. Owing to other responsibilities I can not allocate X amount of time right now. (Ignoring whole COVID-19 saga of course)
  - rlayton2 6y ago
    I could easily count to 1 billion, but I don't have the time to undertake that task.
  - Danieru 6y ago
vivekd 6y ago
One thing that bothers me about silicon valley influenced thinking is that "business idea" always seems to mean "disruptive startup that changes the world and makes billions." Business doesn't have to mean that sort of business. Some guy making $3000 a month selling t-shirts and coffee mugs on etsy has, what I would think of, as a good business. Someone opening up a hotdog stand making $4000 also has a good business. I noticed this in Zambia, lots of people standing by the side of the road selling soda pop and cigarettes or dried fish, or whatever they could get their hands on. Great businesses, great ideas, I'm glad they're doing it and I commend them for it. The signs this article talks about are extremely limiting, to the point where the author is saying most people shouldn't bother. I think they apply for starting a big disruptive tech startup. I don't think they apply to an etsy store or hot dog stand, and those are viable and fairly easy to reach businesses. Personally I'd much rather focus on the easily attainable later sort of business rather than focus my time and energy in a quixotic effort to try and be the next Musk or Zuckerberg.
- WilliamEdward 6y ago
  Forget about 3000 a month, some people have very 'simple' businesses like clothing retail and earn way above engineers salary, which is really what a lot of entrepreneurs want at the end of the day. There's nothing new or innovative about these ideas other than maybe the right branding or location, but it goes over the tech industry's heads here because their venture capitalist overlords are telling them to work on unicorn ideas because they want to make billions, when most founders would be content with just making millions. Or maybe VC's actually want to change the world and don't care about profit? I'll just take the money, thanks.
  - jansan 6y ago
    Some people are making good money because they are in a business that is considered unattractive, for example waste disposal. On the other hand, in an industry that is considered "cool" (like gaming or fashion) some people have a tendency for self exploitation, because they are willing to do just about everything to be in that industry. In those industries you will find quite a few people (especially self-employed) with big dreams and very little income.
cryptica 6y ago
In the current economic climate, in the tech sector, the idea doesn't matter. It's almost all about execution and social networks. Does your business model leverage network effects? Did you get funding from the right investors? Does your business model reward customers for helping you recruit other customers? If so, then your odds are very good regardless of what you do. If you don't have a network growth strategy, then nobody will know about your startup. You can have the best idea in the history of the universe, it's not going to work because no one has an incentive to use and recommend your product or service but they have an incentive to maintain the status quo. Investors and users need to stand to gain more from your project than from upholding the status quo. And these days many investors are shareholders or employees of the status quo so this is a difficult thing to pull off.
chiefalchemist 6y ago
He says this: “ideas don’t matter, only execution matters”. Bullshit. Ideas matter a lot, and if yours is a shitty one, for you, at that time, with the resources you have, it will almost certainly fail." But most, if not all of his red flags are execution-centeic. I'd like to add, it's not that ideas don't matter. They do. However, most of the time a good idea executed well will beat a great idea done poorly. Furthermore, very few ideas are born great. They usually reguire refinement. That refinement process is...execution.
- pier25 6y ago
  I also read somewhere (I think PG said this) that generally speaking it's not obvious which ideas are good a priori. It makes sense if you think about it. If we knew in advance what ideas will work anyone could have a successful product which isn't the case.
  - chiefalchemist 6y ago
    Just the same, if execution was easy, everyone would be doing it. A well-played execution process has iteration and refinement baked into it. Few ideas are born fully grown. They evolve; provided they are allowed to do so. That evolution is part of execution.
urlgrey_ 6y ago
5. You can’t build a story / brand around it Many articles focus on the idea of building your community etc, but few actually focus on how to do it amidst all the noise

287 points by spking 6y ago

Not a bad post. One suggestion that has worked for me to stop me working on dozens of ideas at once is to write them down in detail in an ideas diary. This seems to take away most of the desire to start working on the idea right now.

taneq 6y ago
Sounds like a variant of rule 11 in the Done Manifesto[1]: "If you have an idea and publish it on the internet, that counts as a ghost of done." You're just posting it to your future self but it still counts. You can then let it go out of your head and think about something else. [1] https://medium.com/@bre/the-cult-of-done-manifesto-724ca1c2ff13 https://medium.com/@bre/the-cult-of-done-manifesto-724ca1c2f...
tluyben2 6y ago
Do you later execute any of them? I feel I need the optimism that I only have when I do not see the details clearly yet to start something.
- admiral33 6y ago
  I'm just getting out of school (last round of finals coming up) and I've got several ideas bouncing around. I've also taken to putting them down in diary/journal (originally just started as aimlessly sticking hundreds of post it notes around my room). The one thing I've taken away from it is that design is work - and magically - when I sit down and work on the design and get more specific the better the design gets. It's a motivating feeling for me as I gain momentum. If it's written down I don't feel like I'm throwing a baby away every time I consider a different approach or project because it's already written/drawn and I can go back at any time, and usually when I go back I can take what is newly considered and recognize some commonality between them that leads to yet another new approach that is simpler and covers the value proposition of both approaches. All of this is objectively better than having the images and ideas flash into my head - because that doesn't stop. It gives me the freedom to iterate with new ideas rather than the same model 0 over and over again. But again this process is all new to me. We'll see if anything comes out of it.
- danieltillett 6y ago
  Yes. The last one I executed on was to do in depth fundamental analysis on all the ASX listed biotech/pharma companies (there are about 70 of them). Out of this process I found one very undervalued company that I took a large strategic investment in and joined the board to help turn it around. This has turned into a very good investment, although it has taken up a lot of my time.
  - tluyben2 6y ago
    Nice. What works for someone might not work for someone we can see again!
bgdam 6y ago
Have to second this. I used to have so many 'started in excitement, but probably never going to work on it ever again' projects. Then I started an 'Ideas' board on Trello, and forced myself to put ideas there instead of working on it immediately. I am not allowed to work on an idea unless it's been on the board for atleast two weeks. This forces me to spend a lot more time thinking past the initial one-line idea, and refining it. Eventually, for about 90% of the ideas, by the end of the two week period, I've come to the conclusion to discard it. So now, the 10% that I do end up working on, are much more likely to see sustained work being done on them.
- highfrequency 6y ago
  This is interesting! To clarify: in the first two weeks, you don't allow yourself to work on the idea (eg start writing code), but you do allow yourself to research the idea. And you find that the initial research phase usually turns up compelling reasons not to undertake the project after all. Is this right? How do you prevent the research phase of a new idea from distracting you from your current project?
  - bgdam 6y ago
    I usually have a fixed block of time for working on side projects on weekends. The research phase usually happens through the week, whenever I have the time to think about it. My problem generally is splitting the weekend time across too many projects, with newer ideas displacing older ones. Having much fewer ideas to work on in total, helps me spend more time on them.
nickbauman 6y ago
I read that you're supposed to work on / research / carefully understand the problem that needs solving and stay away from a solution for a long as possible. The problem has to pass a number of tests before going the next step of how you will reach people and get them to pay for a solution (often called the "go to market" strategy). Only after you've nailed this are you supposed to consider how to implement a solution.
- jacobobryant 6y ago
  I've heard this too. However, building the solution can help you understand the problem. So I prefer to go for lightweight solutions/prototyping right away.
gitgud 6y ago
The good thing about this approach is that when you review them (after a certain amount of time) you lose the personal attachment to the ideas. It feels like you're being presenting Startup ideas from someone else, which allows you to be more objective and critical about their validity... hopefully leading to better judgement
Brajeshwar 6y ago
Anyone trying to do this; should read this tweet thread https://twitter.com/intentionally/status/1234918066649272325 https://twitter.com/intentionally/status/1234918066649272325 I like the idea though I moved to a pure text (and/or MarkDown) for all of my writings. Bear is not a bad tool if you'd like writing while on the move on your phone.
wpietri 6y ago
Definitely! The other thing I'd recommend is something kanban-esque. E.g., you have max 1 thing you're working on, max 3 ideas that you think are your best things to do next, and then the rest in a big pile. This has a few benefits for me. The top 3 unstarted ideas help defend the thing I'm working on. If I think of something new, I first have to ask myself if it's better than the top 3. Usually it isn't so it goes in the backlog. Then if I'm starting to question the thing I'm working on, I can say, "Has something changed such that killing this and switching to one of the top 3 a better use of my time?" Having things to compare it with helps ground my thinkin.
moneywoes 6y ago
Do you physically write them on paper or use an app?
TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
I have a semi-formal annual and quarterly review process to keep track of ideas and prioritise the projects that need attention. Most of the time I'm working on code, but every so often I step back to set explicit goals and brainstorm possibilities. Details are kept in a collection of kanban-like spreadsheets so there'a always an overview of what needs to be done at each level. It's a workable way to minimised ADHD and keep me from getting distracted by new shinies.

user239 6y ago

Is it just me or the logic in #3 is deeply flawed? I mean who of the author’s heroes knew in advance what their companies were going to become (and thus how “special” they were)?

syllogism 6y ago

I very much disagree with: > 7. You are operating mainly on assumptions You'll always be operating mainly on assumptions. Everyone will. It does help to check your assumptions against external things, so if you're wrong, you can notice faster. But even the process of noticing that the data is confusing is like 99.99% rationalism and only 0.01% empiricism.

bluewalt 6y ago
I spent 2 years building an awesome product, thinking that my future clients would think this product awesome too, and that they would need it. I was completely wrong. I didn't know my clients and my market. This is the exact definition of operating mainly on assumptions. I lost at least 18 months, since I could have find this out way sooner.
- pier25 6y ago
  What did you build?
- jariel 6y ago
  Tell us more about the product, market, and clients.
  - bluewalt 6y ago
    I built a copycat of www.bellycard.com for French market. As a software engineer, the technical product was good IMHO. but I spent almost 2 years to build it, without really trying to sell it. My thought was: "if it's sold in US, it will be sellable in France". Then I found ont the real truth: - Merchants won't find your website to buy your amazing product, you need to meet them physically (that can seems obvious but it was not the case for me at that time) - Merchants don't care about you or your product. They won't listen to you in deep, except if you have specific social skills (I don't). Every day someone enters in their shop trying to sell them something. If you're not psychologically ready to hear "I don't care" or "is it free?" 9 times on 10, then you can not do that for a very long time. - Independant merchants, generally speaking, don't have any marketing skills. What seems obvious for you is not for them. For example, they don't see the powerfulness of getting emails and consuming habits of their own customers. Plus, I'd say 2/3 of them were really suspicious about technology in general. So what was hard here was not to make a product that have intrinsic value for merchants, but to teach merchants what this value is. The real need to succeed in this project is absolutely not tech, it's to know the market, and how to convince merchants.

deleted 6y ago

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samtho 6y ago

> 2. You are working on more than 1 thing This is so true it’s almost a cliché. Too often have I been in organizations that try to do a little of everything I hoped to eventually find something that sticks and it has almost never worked out.

bluedino 6y ago
He means side projects or businesses. If you want to build Uber, don't try to build eBay or PayPal on the side. Founders and other early employees have to do a little of everything as there isn't anyone else to do HR, sales, marketing...

rickpmg 6y ago

> That’s why entrepreneurs, myself included, waste years of their lives on shitty ideas that will never work, following the popular trend of “ideas don’t matter, only execution matters”. The saying has to do with just having an idea is worthless in itself, you have to do something with that idea. He interprets it as a shitty idea will be successful if executed well. Wow.

crsv 6y ago
Anyone worth their salt knows the idea is a necessary condition, but not a satisfactory one. The execution is typically the largest part of finding success, and along the journey the idea often feels like it fades in to the background and starts to seem obvious rather than novel, but of course the idea matters.
icelancer 6y ago
Lot of things look like shitty ideas retroactively.
- danieltillett 6y ago
  Yes especially shitty ideas.
elicash 6y ago
I think the clearest interpretation of "ideas don't matter" is that first-mover advantage is, at best, overrated relative to execution. Not that I endorse this. But I think it's a clearer way of saying it. The concern is that people are afraid to test their idea and get feedback to improve upon it because somebody may "steal" it.
- naasking 6y ago
  Squandering your first mover advantage doesn't indicate it was overrated. If you actually listen to the feedback, then you're miles ahead of any competition given a first mover advantage.

yesimahuman 6y ago

A sign that a business will fail: you worship tech heroes instead of being willing to forge your own path and go against the grain (see #3)

Redoubts 6y ago

Who is this guy? Aside from someone who says he started and failed many businesses from a smorgasbord of ideas. I went to his about page, but gave up after scrolling past the 30th selfie.

AbrahamParangi 6y ago

> 3. You are the wrong person for the job This is ridiculously bad advice. How can you expect to make a dent in the universe if you can't even manage to believe in yourself?

yters 6y ago
How can you expect to make a dent if you spend all your time in a task for which you are unsuited?
MagnumPIG 6y ago
It's weird because it's a valid point, but they go on to elaborate using absurdly misguided arguments. They're mostly developing on the importance of being smart, all the while misunderstanding what being smart is (it's not grades jesus christ) and failing to establish a correlation between smarts and fitness for a particular task.
rognjen 6y ago
This might be good advice for ideas that might be good but not in a field that interests you. Then you aren't the right person for the job. But the "you're not good enough" justification seems misguided.
duxup 6y ago
I feel like that item ... actually weaves in and out of much of the article and goes from being a question about if you're smart enough in #3 ... but even ties back to point 1 where maybe you don't know the industry, possibly not at all, and the point about assumptions and so forth. That point almost seems like most of the points tied together.

paulcole 6y ago

> When I think about entrepreneurs who have given large amounts to causes, the ones I think of like Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg, Jeff Bezos What causes has Bezos given to? He shouldn’t even be mentioned in the same sentence as Gates.

bdcravens 6y ago
This article points out that Bezos has been light on his giving (compared to the richest billionaires) but it also lists out who he has given to, which is a diverse set of interests as well as some princely sums: https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/news-trends/article/3075956/why-hasnt-jeff-bezos-donated-much-charity-billionaires https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/news-trends/article/307...

ftbai 6y ago

> You are the wrong person for the job The first rule of "some level of self awareness" is to not completely hand yourself over to survivorship bias. So the argument is that Mark is a smart hacker and possesses "balls of steel" -> Mark is successful? And because you're the opposite way -> you'll fail? No. He's been completely blindsided by survivorship bias. It's actually the other way, from that Mark became very successful (via good luck which was probably modulated by some highly attainable level of skill in execution) -> everyone thinks Mark is a super hacker with balls of steel. It's terrible advice which gives you premonitions about yourself which would keep you from even trying. Or maybe the author can actually tell innate potential to some uncanny degree, in which case he should join YC to vet founders.

marcus_holmes 6y ago
this. Also in point #3 - "these people are not like us" then points #4,#6 using tech idols as role models. If they're not like us then we can stop using them as role models, right?

rglover 6y ago

That working on multiple things at the same time one is spot on. That has been the #1 reason I've screwed stuff up. Something I constantly remind myself: it's not that you're not capable of doing that thing, it's that you don't have the capacity. You may be perfectly capable of doing something, but if you don't have the capacity to do it, there's a good chance you'll blow it. Disconnecting your ego from reality on this one will save you a ton of heartache and stress. And for those who say "not me," I, too, was an egomaniac and thought everyone else wasn't as good. Pump your brakes and thank me later.

rlayton2 6y ago
I have "one rabbit" at the top of my TODO list to remind me of this, from the saying: "He who chases two rabbits catches neither." - Confucius
- rglover 6y ago
  Oh, that's good. I'm stealing this.
brnt 6y ago
Being incapable and having no capacity sounds very similar to me. Could you explain the difference a bit more?
- advaita 6y ago
  Example: I am physically/mentally/financially capable of taking a bike tour across US, to do that I need X amount of time. Owing to other responsibilities I can not allocate X amount of time right now. (Ignoring whole COVID-19 saga of course)
- rlayton2 6y ago
  I could easily count to 1 billion, but I don't have the time to undertake that task.
- Danieru 6y ago

vivekd 6y ago

One thing that bothers me about silicon valley influenced thinking is that "business idea" always seems to mean "disruptive startup that changes the world and makes billions." Business doesn't have to mean that sort of business. Some guy making $3000 a month selling t-shirts and coffee mugs on etsy has, what I would think of, as a good business. Someone opening up a hotdog stand making $4000 also has a good business. I noticed this in Zambia, lots of people standing by the side of the road selling soda pop and cigarettes or dried fish, or whatever they could get their hands on. Great businesses, great ideas, I'm glad they're doing it and I commend them for it. The signs this article talks about are extremely limiting, to the point where the author is saying most people shouldn't bother. I think they apply for starting a big disruptive tech startup. I don't think they apply to an etsy store or hot dog stand, and those are viable and fairly easy to reach businesses. Personally I'd much rather focus on the easily attainable later sort of business rather than focus my time and energy in a quixotic effort to try and be the next Musk or Zuckerberg.

WilliamEdward 6y ago
Forget about 3000 a month, some people have very 'simple' businesses like clothing retail and earn way above engineers salary, which is really what a lot of entrepreneurs want at the end of the day. There's nothing new or innovative about these ideas other than maybe the right branding or location, but it goes over the tech industry's heads here because their venture capitalist overlords are telling them to work on unicorn ideas because they want to make billions, when most founders would be content with just making millions. Or maybe VC's actually want to change the world and don't care about profit? I'll just take the money, thanks.
- jansan 6y ago
  Some people are making good money because they are in a business that is considered unattractive, for example waste disposal. On the other hand, in an industry that is considered "cool" (like gaming or fashion) some people have a tendency for self exploitation, because they are willing to do just about everything to be in that industry. In those industries you will find quite a few people (especially self-employed) with big dreams and very little income.

cryptica 6y ago

In the current economic climate, in the tech sector, the idea doesn't matter. It's almost all about execution and social networks. Does your business model leverage network effects? Did you get funding from the right investors? Does your business model reward customers for helping you recruit other customers? If so, then your odds are very good regardless of what you do. If you don't have a network growth strategy, then nobody will know about your startup. You can have the best idea in the history of the universe, it's not going to work because no one has an incentive to use and recommend your product or service but they have an incentive to maintain the status quo. Investors and users need to stand to gain more from your project than from upholding the status quo. And these days many investors are shareholders or employees of the status quo so this is a difficult thing to pull off.

chiefalchemist 6y ago

He says this: “ideas don’t matter, only execution matters”. Bullshit. Ideas matter a lot, and if yours is a shitty one, for you, at that time, with the resources you have, it will almost certainly fail." But most, if not all of his red flags are execution-centeic. I'd like to add, it's not that ideas don't matter. They do. However, most of the time a good idea executed well will beat a great idea done poorly. Furthermore, very few ideas are born great. They usually reguire refinement. That refinement process is...execution.

pier25 6y ago
I also read somewhere (I think PG said this) that generally speaking it's not obvious which ideas are good a priori. It makes sense if you think about it. If we knew in advance what ideas will work anyone could have a successful product which isn't the case.
- chiefalchemist 6y ago
  Just the same, if execution was easy, everyone would be doing it. A well-played execution process has iteration and refinement baked into it. Few ideas are born fully grown. They evolve; provided they are allowed to do so. That evolution is part of execution.

urlgrey_ 6y ago

5. You can’t build a story / brand around it Many articles focus on the idea of building your community etc, but few actually focus on how to do it amidst all the noise