The early estimates for how lethal the virus would be were basically spot on. E.g. the Imperial model, which drove the policy changes in UK was based on an IFR

The early estimates for how lethal the virus would be were basically spot on. E.g. the Imperial model, which drove the policy changes in UK was based on an IFR estimate of 0.9% based on the UK population structure. The best available evidence we have right now suggests the IFR will be around 0.5-1%.