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Headline: “Nobel prize-winning scientist: the Covid-19 epidemic was never exponential” TFA: “After around a two week exponential growth of cases (and, subseque
by hyko 6y ago
Headline: “Nobel prize-winning scientist: the Covid-19 epidemic was never exponential”
TFA: “After around a two week exponential growth of cases (and, subsequently, deaths)...”
- miked85 6y agoyou might as well quote the entire sentence: "After around a two week exponential growth of cases (and, subsequently, deaths) some kind of break kicks in, and growth starts slowing down. The curve quickly becomes “sub-exponential”."
- hyko 6y agoNot necessary, as my point was the headline is grossly misleading; the Nobel prize-winning scientist explicitly refutes the claim in the first part of that sentence.
- amalter 6y agoHe doesn’t present an alternative hypothesis though for why (Or maybe it’s implied that this is somehow the natural order of things?) I’m guessing he’s looking at modern proto-pandemics, because you only have to go back to 1918 to see exponential part of the s curve last longer than two weeks. Wouldn’t the null hypothesis than be in these modern times, where we understand germ theory, people start naturally practicing social distancing due to fear? Otherwise what action is slowing virus contagion?