When you have a complex system, simplistic projections should be held suspect. The more confident the presenter, the higher the degree of skepticism. This frame

When you have a complex system, simplistic projections should be held suspect. The more confident the presenter, the higher the degree of skepticism. This framework has served me well. Peak oil is inevitable, given the fact that it’s a finite resource. But what its advocates failed to consider was how quickly free markets innovate when the price incentive is high enough.