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If you deploy a contingency plan you can't then later say "see it wasn't so bad" using the measured numbers. You have to use a model of what it would have been
by jobigoud 7y ago
If you deploy a contingency plan you can't then later say "see it wasn't so bad" using the measured numbers. You have to use a model of what it would have been without the containment measures.
- DeonPenny 7y agoBased on the fact states/countries have used different levels of contingency and some states have similar sizes its easy enough to use states as A/B tests and figure out the p-value. But Idk if it needs to be that complicated. People are simple. If texas which just opened kills fewer people total and fewer people per million than NYC. Theres no way people in texas don't look at this as a success.