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People are really optimistic in the industry. I am active in petroleum circles and many are convinced that this is another temporary downturn and we'll always n

People are really optimistic in the industry. I am active in petroleum circles and many are convinced that this is another temporary downturn and we'll always need oil. All I see is public sentiment turning against fossil fuels and an inevitable death for 90% of the industry as we move away from petroleum. We only use something like >20% of raw petroleum for plastic and medicine and such. And the price curve is not linear, so the oil necessary to satisfy the first 20% of today's demand is probably priced some absurdly low number, my gut says less than $20. It feels like our entire geopolitical system is crumbling. A vulnerable state had been brewing for a long time. Coronavirus was the trigger. Perhaps the american hegemony was not sustainable, or recently became such. For those unaware, petroleum really does factor into a lot of worldbuilding that we do in the middle east. Major shifts in oil markets typically mean major shifts in geopolitics. Interesting times ahead.

jariel 6y ago
5 billion people on planet earth living in poor countries do not care about the negative effects of oil. They are making quite a lot more money and want to buy cars. If the last 30 years was about the rise of China, the rest of the century is going to be about the rise of 'the rest of the world'. Pre 2000 it was as if these places didn't exist - they had no money. Just people in huts. But now they want Hondas and iPhones and there are a lot of them. The US was 1/3 of the world economy, but less than 10% of it's population. Not it's like 22% of world economy. This is the 'macro macro' thing that will be the biggest driver of everything.
- twomoretime 6y ago
  The entire global economy is grinding to a halt and we may be sitting on top of a global depression for years to come. Those 5 billion are going to have to wait. Also, it may be harsh but if history is any indication, these people are unlikely to gain access to oil themselves - which means they're dependent on probably their neighbors (developing countries probably are sensitive to shipping/deliver charges) which means that their demand is subject to international sanctions if, say, G20 decides to wean the globe from petroleum. So if the west decides no more fossil fuels, these people will likely stay in huts until they stumble upon reserves in their country (unlikely) or find another civilization-sustaining energy source. You think oil dependence will last forever? Also with the rise of the internet, you don't think people in developing countries are likely to give preference to renewables if the price is within reach? Everything's getting cheaper.
  - jariel 6y ago
    No, they will get the oil, and low prices will only expedite that. Nobody, not the entire EU/West and certainly not anyone else is going to say to poor Africa and Asia: 'you can't use Oil', moreover, nobody is going to send troops to Nigeria to stop exports, or embargo Indonesia and Pakistan or wherever from receiving oil. It's like telling 5 billion people they can't use tapped water or water wells that they have to 'figure something out'. It's a non-starter. The only shift will be economic - either Oil is too expensive - or - in some situations, solar might be cheaper. Which it will be, but for the most part, there is no end in sight to oil. If there is a magic leap in solar and battery tech, and China pumps out super cheap electric cars that can be re-fueled cheaper than gas and there's enough sunlight, that would work. But that's not in the cards.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - demosito666 6y ago
      > It's a non-starter. If half a year ago someone would tell me that the entire world will be shut down because of some kind of a flu, I wouldn't even consider this: it's a non-starter. And yet here we are. I can easily imagine a mind shift amongst current world powers that will be strong enough to reduce fossils usage to half of existing levels. And since they have all means to enforce this on developing world, I wouldn't dismiss this possibility.
      - jariel 6y ago
        A 'Deus Ex-Machina' argument is not an argument. Yes, we could invent some magical technology tomorrow that solved all of our energy problems, but lacking divine intervention - there is no foreseeable path in which the Oil stays in the ground. Telling the 3rd world they must stay poor because 'we already used up all the Co2 emissions' is not going to work. Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Iran, etc. etc. will sell Oil to willing buyers.
        demosito666 6y ago

jariel 6y ago

5 billion people on planet earth living in poor countries do not care about the negative effects of oil. They are making quite a lot more money and want to buy cars. If the last 30 years was about the rise of China, the rest of the century is going to be about the rise of 'the rest of the world'. Pre 2000 it was as if these places didn't exist - they had no money. Just people in huts. But now they want Hondas and iPhones and there are a lot of them. The US was 1/3 of the world economy, but less than 10% of it's population. Not it's like 22% of world economy. This is the 'macro macro' thing that will be the biggest driver of everything.

twomoretime 6y ago
The entire global economy is grinding to a halt and we may be sitting on top of a global depression for years to come. Those 5 billion are going to have to wait. Also, it may be harsh but if history is any indication, these people are unlikely to gain access to oil themselves - which means they're dependent on probably their neighbors (developing countries probably are sensitive to shipping/deliver charges) which means that their demand is subject to international sanctions if, say, G20 decides to wean the globe from petroleum. So if the west decides no more fossil fuels, these people will likely stay in huts until they stumble upon reserves in their country (unlikely) or find another civilization-sustaining energy source. You think oil dependence will last forever? Also with the rise of the internet, you don't think people in developing countries are likely to give preference to renewables if the price is within reach? Everything's getting cheaper.
- jariel 6y ago
  No, they will get the oil, and low prices will only expedite that. Nobody, not the entire EU/West and certainly not anyone else is going to say to poor Africa and Asia: 'you can't use Oil', moreover, nobody is going to send troops to Nigeria to stop exports, or embargo Indonesia and Pakistan or wherever from receiving oil. It's like telling 5 billion people they can't use tapped water or water wells that they have to 'figure something out'. It's a non-starter. The only shift will be economic - either Oil is too expensive - or - in some situations, solar might be cheaper. Which it will be, but for the most part, there is no end in sight to oil. If there is a magic leap in solar and battery tech, and China pumps out super cheap electric cars that can be re-fueled cheaper than gas and there's enough sunlight, that would work. But that's not in the cards.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - demosito666 6y ago
    > It's a non-starter. If half a year ago someone would tell me that the entire world will be shut down because of some kind of a flu, I wouldn't even consider this: it's a non-starter. And yet here we are. I can easily imagine a mind shift amongst current world powers that will be strong enough to reduce fossils usage to half of existing levels. And since they have all means to enforce this on developing world, I wouldn't dismiss this possibility.
    - jariel 6y ago
      A 'Deus Ex-Machina' argument is not an argument. Yes, we could invent some magical technology tomorrow that solved all of our energy problems, but lacking divine intervention - there is no foreseeable path in which the Oil stays in the ground. Telling the 3rd world they must stay poor because 'we already used up all the Co2 emissions' is not going to work. Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Iran, etc. etc. will sell Oil to willing buyers.
      - demosito666 6y ago