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The problem is even if that doubles in 2018 flu had like 90k. Lets say by November it doesn't reach 90k how angry would people be. All the business owners and w

The problem is even if that doubles in 2018 flu had like 90k. Lets say by November it doesn't reach 90k how angry would people be. All the business owners and workers that were laid off.

jobigoud 6y ago
If you deploy a contingency plan you can't then later say "see it wasn't so bad" using the measured numbers. You have to use a model of what it would have been without the containment measures.
- DeonPenny 6y ago
  Based on the fact states/countries have used different levels of contingency and some states have similar sizes its easy enough to use states as A/B tests and figure out the p-value. But Idk if it needs to be that complicated. People are simple. If texas which just opened kills fewer people total and fewer people per million than NYC. Theres no way people in texas don't look at this as a success.
paypalcust83 6y ago
Irrational actions based on an apples-oranges comparison fallacy by ignorant, impulsive people who lack delayed gratification is why advisory and legal mandates are necessary. Loosening up the lockdowns without evidence (good testing) and a vaccine or infected carriers reduced to zero just restarts the pandemic curve all over again and the pain becomes all for nothing. Easily-distracted, angsty, confused, selfish, short-term-focused, un-empathetic people who lack critical thinking skills and proper perspective can't anticipate the consequences of their actions or self-reflect. If some people are going to be dangerous assholes or clueless liabilities to others, the government has to step-in and prevent undue permanent harm. Otherwise, there will be another 100k deaths. If officials in all states acted with complete negligence and denial, they would've lost their next elections and there would've been somewhere between 500k-1m additional deaths. These are deaths can still happen since few % of the overall population is immune, and there's a possibility of importing a deadlier Italian strain to supplant the weaker West Coast US strain.

The problem is even if that doubles in 2018 flu had like 90k. Lets say by November it doesn't reach 90k how angry would people be. All the business owners and workers that were laid off.

jobigoud 6y ago

If you deploy a contingency plan you can't then later say "see it wasn't so bad" using the measured numbers. You have to use a model of what it would have been without the containment measures.

DeonPenny 6y ago
Based on the fact states/countries have used different levels of contingency and some states have similar sizes its easy enough to use states as A/B tests and figure out the p-value. But Idk if it needs to be that complicated. People are simple. If texas which just opened kills fewer people total and fewer people per million than NYC. Theres no way people in texas don't look at this as a success.

paypalcust83 6y ago

Irrational actions based on an apples-oranges comparison fallacy by ignorant, impulsive people who lack delayed gratification is why advisory and legal mandates are necessary. Loosening up the lockdowns without evidence (good testing) and a vaccine or infected carriers reduced to zero just restarts the pandemic curve all over again and the pain becomes all for nothing. Easily-distracted, angsty, confused, selfish, short-term-focused, un-empathetic people who lack critical thinking skills and proper perspective can't anticipate the consequences of their actions or self-reflect. If some people are going to be dangerous assholes or clueless liabilities to others, the government has to step-in and prevent undue permanent harm. Otherwise, there will be another 100k deaths. If officials in all states acted with complete negligence and denial, they would've lost their next elections and there would've been somewhere between 500k-1m additional deaths. These are deaths can still happen since few % of the overall population is immune, and there's a possibility of importing a deadlier Italian strain to supplant the weaker West Coast US strain.